Karnataka Elections 2018 No political party has ever returned to power in Karnataka since 1983

Karnataka Elections 2018

No political party has ever returned to power in Karnataka since 1983

By Deepak Parvatiyar

The Marathi translation of this article was published in leading Marathi daily Pudhari on 28 April 2018 

  

The high voltage election campaigning by national leaders of both rival parties, the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Congress, signify the importance of Karnataka elections. In case the Congress retains the state after elections, it will be a great morale booster for its cadre. In such a case the Congress president Rahul Gandhi can look forward to the ensuing elections in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhatisgarh – all BJP bastions, with a positive frame of mind. He could then hope for a revival of the party before the 2019 general elections. This would be important particularly after his continued dismal show in state elections including those in the North Eastern states of Meghalaya, Tripura and Nagaland, earlier this year.

To his advantage, Karnataka has traditionally been a Congress stronghold since its inception in 1957. Even in 1978, after Janata Party assault nationally, Karnataka was one of the few states which Congress managed to retain. In fact the first non-Congress government was installed in the state only in 1983 under the leadership of Janata Party’s Ramkrishna Hegde.

A fact that may deter Rahul is that since 1985, the state never re-elected the incumbent party. In 1985, it was the Janata Party that returned to power after a snap poll after Hegde had resigned following his party’s dismal performance in the 1984 Lok Sabha elections when it could win only 4 out of the 28 Lok Sabha seats from Karnataka. But his return was marred with controversies and after resigning was withdrawing his resignation just within 3 days in February 1986, after the Karnataka High Court censured his government over arrack bottling contracts. Thereafter he continued for almost two more years before he was again forced to quit office in 1988 after allegations of phone tapping of prominent politicians and businessmen in the State.

Hegde was the last Chief Minister to have returned to power in the state. Can the present incumbent, Siddaramaiah, break the jinx and return to power again has to be seen.

Karnataka is divided into six regions – Old Mysuru, Bengaluru city, Hyderabad Karnataka, Bombay Karnataka, Karavali and Central Karnataka.

The largest region is the Old Mysuru region. Out of the 224 assembly seats in Karnataka, (51 seats are reserved – 36 for SC and 15 for ST), 64 seats fall in the Old Mysuru region – which has the largest share of seats in the state assembly. The region is comprised of Hassan, Mandya, Mysore, Tumkur, Kolar, Chamranjnagar districts. In 2013, the region had seen a tough fight between the Congress and H. D. Deve Gowda’s  Janata Dal (Secular). While the former won 30 of the 64 seats here, the JD (S) was a close second, winning 25 seats. The BJP had then won just 4 seats from Old Mysuru region! Both Siddaramaiah and Deve Gowda belong to this region.

The second biggest political region of the state with 50 assembly seats is Bombay Karnataka comprising Bijapur, Bagalkot, Belgaum, Dharwad, Gadag, Uttar Kannad, Haveri districts. It is again a Congress fiefdom from where the party had won 31 seats as against the BJP’s 13 in 2013. Incidentally the JD(S) was virtually a persona non grata here and had managed to win just one seat here in 2013.

In the last assembly elections the Congress had performed remarkably well in Central Karnataka region comprising Devangere, Shimoga, Chikmangalur, Chitradurga districts. It had then won 12 of the 23 seats in the region as against the BJP’s 3 and JD(S)’s 6 seats.

Except Bengaluru City where it faced tough contest from the BJP and could win 13 of the 28 seats as against the BJP’s 12 in 2013, the Congress’s performance was equally impressive in Hyderabad Karnataka as well as Karavali regions.

In Karavali, comprising Udupi, Dakshin Kannad, Kodagu (Mangalore) districts, the party had then won  13 of the 19 seats as against the BJP’s 3.

Out of the 40 seats from Hyderabad Karnataka region comprising Gulbarga, Bidar, Bellary, Raichur, Koppal districts, the party had won 23 seats while the BJP and JD(S) had won 5 seats each.

However, at a time when poll pundits are predicting a keen contest between the BJP and the Congress in the state, it would be imperative for the Congress do well in its stronghold to return to power. What is interesting is that despite being out of power between 2006 and 2013, the Congress’s average vote share in the last 3 elections has been the highest at 36% followed by the BJP’s 32%  and the JD(S)’s 20%. Significantly, the BJP’s vote share had plunged to sub 20% levels in 2013 when Yeddyurappa and Reddy brothers had contested independently bagging 9.8% and 2.7% vote share.  As both this time are back with the BJP, can the Lotus benefit from their presence this time needs to be seen. Yet, one thing cannot be ignored and that is the caste factor. Lingayats and Vokkaligas are two dominant castes accounting for 29% of the population. Karnataka has till date had five chief ministers from the Vokkaliga community, and seven from the Lingayats. While BJP CM candidate Yeddyurappa is a Lingayat, Deve Gowda is a Vokkaliga. Incidentally the incumbent CM Siddaramaiah is a Kuruba which comprises 8% of the total population.    

For the BJP to make a dent in the Congress bastion, the party must be exploring the winning formula of 2014 when it had won 17 of the 28 Lok Sabha seats from the state leaving just 9 and 2 seats for the Congress and the JD(S) respectively.