Karnataka Elections 2018: H.D.Deve Gowda --The kingmaker?

Karnataka Elections 2018

H.D.Deve Gowda --The kingmaker?

By Deepak Parvatiyar

The Marathi translation of this article was published in leading Marathi daily Pudhari on 8th May 2018

http://newspaper.pudhari.co.in/viewpage.php?edn=Kolhapur&date=2018-05-08&edid=PUDHARI_KOL&pid=PUDHARI_KOL&pn=8#Article/PUDHARI_KOL_20180508_08_2/247px/18AABFC

With a tight contest round the corner and a hung assembly being predicted by poll pundits, the role of Janata Dal (Secular) in the next government formation assumes importance. Yet, interestingly, the public posturing of the JD(S) supremo and former Prime Minister H.D.Deve Gowda against the BJP and his bitter relationship with one time protégé turned detractor, Chief Minister Siddaramaiah, has added a twist of suspense on which way his party will go in case of hung assembly.

As it is, in 2013 elections the JD(S) had got 40 seats – same as what the BJP had secured then. A crucial factor to be taken into consideration is that since 1999, when its vote share was 10.4%, the vote share of JD(S) has stabilized and has been in the range of 19%-21%. Pre poll surveys again suggest the JD(S) to more or less retain the numbers this time again. 

The secret of JD(S) success is its support base comprising the Vokalliga community to which Gowda belongs. It comprises a sizeable 12% of the total votes in the state.

Incidentally, the Vokalligas and Lingayats (17% of the voters) have been the two dominating communities in Karnataka. Their dominance can be gauged by the fact that the state has till date had five chief ministers from the Vokkaliga community, and seven from the Lingayat community. Even in the last Karnataka House, 53 MLAs were Vokalligas, while 50 MLAs were Lingayats in the 224-member assembly.

In such a scenario, where community politics dominate, both Lingayat and Vokalliga votes are important for the BJP if it hopes to upset the Congress in the elections. As it is, political commentators attribute the BJP’s ouster from power in 2013 to the lack of support to the party from the Lingayats after the BJP was forced to unceremoniously sack its CM, BS Yeddyurappa from the party following his indictment in illegal mining case. At that time Yeddyurappa had formed his own political outfit, Karanataka Jantha Paksha, that had won six assembly seats. The Congress was the biggest gainer because of this split then.

With Yeddyurappa as well as the influential mining barons Reddy brothers, who too the BJP had distanced itself from in 2013, back in the BJP now, the party now expects to improve is tally in the polls. Yet it is a big challenge for the Lotus to increase its tally from present 40 to 113 – the numbers required to form the government. While on one hand it is looking to the Lingayat support, on the other hand it is hoping to rope in the anti- incumbency votes in drought hit north Karnataka where the Congress had won 23 of the 40 seats as against the BJP’s 5 seats in 2013.

But the gap seems quite wide to be bridged easily. This despite the BJP’s impressive performance in the state during the 2014 Lok Sabha elections when the party had cornered 43.37 per cent of the vote share and won 17 of the 28 Lok Sabha seats that in terms of Assembly seats, translates into 132 constituencies!

More so, also condering the fact that this time the BJP is in a direct fight with the Congress only in about 160 constituencies out of 224. In the remaining 60-odd seats, it is a Congress vs JD(S) battle.  Besides, the Congress under Siddaramaiah has missed no opportunity to make a dent into the Lingayat vote bank by according religious minority status to the Lingayats and Veerashaiva –Lingayats just before the elections. (It may be recalled that the Lingayats had started moving away from the Congress after then prime minister Rajiv Gandhi abruptly sacked Veerendra Patil, a Lingayat, as CM in 1990. Will Siddaramaiah’s move bring them closer to the Congress once again needs to be seen).

In such a scenario, for the BJP to get to the simple majority mark of 113 on its own, it would need a lavish strike rate which is not an easy task. It is trying hard to win over the support of Dalits (who make nearly 23 populaton of Karnataka) and making all out attempts to woo the ‘Left Dalits’ or Madigas as ‘Right Dalits’ support the Congress since its leader Mallikarjun Kharge belongs to the community. But wooing Dalits would not be an easy task considering that the Congress government under Siddaramaiah had raised allocations for minorities to Rs 6,428 crore over five years.

It is against this backdrop that the support of Vokkaligas would be crucial for the BJP and this amply explains the importance of Deve Gowda to the BJP.

As Gowda himself is facing a do or die situation in face of internal bickerings within the party that has been effectively exploited by his former party colleague turned detractor, Siddaramaiah, who poached seven JD(S) MLAs and gave them Congress tickets this time.  The dissent within his party has further forced Gowda to deny tickets to his two daughters in law and a grandson after the criticism that JD(S) had become ‘Appa – Makkala Paksha’ (pary of father and children).

Yet despite all such setbacks, JD(S) and Gowda remain a force to reckon with in their stronghold Old Mysuru region, where Vokkaligas are the dominant community.  The region has 64 assembly seats and from here while the JD(S) had won 25 seats, the BJP had won just four seats in 2013.

At a time when Siddaramaiah has termed the Karnataka elections as a “battle between secularism and communalism”, ideally, the "secular" Congress could have been a natural ally for the  JD(S) but for the deteriorating personal equations between Siddaramaiah and his mentor Gowda.

Sensing an opportunity therefore, the BJP is missing no chance to publicly display its closeness to Gowda or coming to his aid whenever he is targeted by Siddaramaiah.  Hence, while Siddaramaiah is evoking Kannadiga pride, to lure the voters, no less than a person than Prime Minister Narendra  Modi is projecting Gowda as the tallest Kannadiga leader. Obviously with Yeddyurappa unable to blunt Siddaramaiah's “Kannada pride”, Modi is trying to tap into Gowda's stature. This explains why recently Modi took up the cause of  Gowda when Congress president Rahul Gandhi termed Gowda and his political party Janata Dal (Secular) as the BJP’s  “B-team”.  Modi missed no chance to attack Rahul  for “insulting” former Prime Minister and Janata Dal (Secular) supremo H.D.Deve Gowda.

Already there are rumours of Gowda indulging into hard bargaining with the BJP for his support, the wily Gowda is playing his cards close to his chest. But he does stand a chance to emerge as a kingmaker after the poll.

It may be pointed out here that after the 2004 state elections that had thrown up a fractured verdict with the BJP emerging as the single largest party then, the JD(S) had supported the Congress. However the government had collapsed within twenty months, due to a defection in the JD(S) engineered by Gowda’s son H.D. Kumaraswamy, who succeeded him as Chief Minister, leading a new coalition with the BJP.

Will history repeat itself again in Karnataka is to be seen.