What explains BJP’s performance in 2016 Assembly
elections
Published in
http://www.elections.in/blog/what-explains-bjp-performance-in-2016-assembly-elections/
May 26, 2016
Following his party’s better show in
recent elections in Assam, West Bengal, Kerala,Tamil Nadu and Puducherry, the
BJP president Amit Shah, who till recently was struggling to explain the
party’s debacles in Bihar and Delhi, attributed it to the voters’ approval of
Modi government’s “pro-poor, pro-farmers and pro-village work”.
Obviously, the BJP’s vote share
increased in all these five states. This enabled the party to form its first
ever government in Assam and open its account in Kerala assembly for the first
ever time, what if just by a solitary win.
What
led to Enhanced Performance by the BJP?
The question being debated is
whether it was Modi’s policies or other factors, including the decline in the
Congress’s popularity, that contributed to an enhanced performance by the BJP.
Undoubtedly, the BJP, with a neat
strategy to enter into an alliance with influential regional parties Asom Gana
Parishad (AGP) and Bodoland People’s Front (BPF), exploited the perceived
anti-incumbency factor against the 15-year-old Congress government to romp home
in Assam. In the process, it showed its ability to learn from the Bihar defeat,
as unlike in Bihar, it stuck to highlighting its own governance agenda than
going overboard to criticise the incumbent government. Its vote share in the
state, too, jumped significantly from 11.5% in 2011 to 29.5% in 2016. Yet, it
was considerably less if compared to 36.5% vote share that it had got in the
2014 Lok Sabha elections.
One may argue that Lok Sabha
election is a different ball game altogether where local issues give way to
national issues. Still, judging by the same yardstick, the Congress’s vote
share, despite its loss, did not drop drastically. In fact, despite being a
loser this time, its vote share at 31% was higher than that of the BJP’s. The
reason could be that the party contested more seats than the BJP as the latter
had seat-sharing arrangements with its junior allies too. Yet, the Congress’
vote share percentage was actually an improvement from 29.9% in 2014 Lok Sabha
performance as compared with 39.9% in 2011 Assembly elections!
BJP-Congress
Performance Comparison in Four States
In a direct comparison with the
Congress in the remaining four states, the BJP did improve its position
marginally in these states, but even the Congress improved its seat share in
West Bengal, Tamil Nadu and Puducherry.
In West Bengal, where the BJP had
failed to open its account in 2011 but had later won twice in by-polls, the
saffron brigade won three seats this time. In the process, the party got around
56 lakh votes – a significant jump from 19.5 lakh votes in 2011. Even the
Congress’ performance improved in Bengal as it got 12.3% votes and won 44
seats. This was much higher than its vote share of 9.09% in 2011 when it had
won 42 seats, but much less than the 17.5% vote share in 2014 Lok Sabha
elections.
Obviously, the Modi government’s
performance, as Shah had claimed, had no impact whatsoever on either the ruling
Trinamool Congress’ performance or the Congress. The TMC improved its tally
from 184 seats in 2011 (38.93% vote share) to 211 seats in 2016 (an improvement
in vote share by 5.6 per cent). In fact, it was the Left Front that lost the
space perhaps for diluting its ideology to befriend its arch rival, the
Congress before the polls in the state.
The Congress’s performance in Tamil
Nadu, too, was interesting as despite a drop in its vote share percentage –
from 9.30% in 2011 to 6.4% in 2016 – it could win more seats (8) than what it
had won in 2011(5 seats). In contrast, in Tamil Nadu and Puducherry, the vote
share did go up for the BJP in spite of its failure to win a single seat.
Is
Congress still a force to reckon with?
Verdicts in Assam, Tamil Nadu and
Puducherry proved that there is not much correlation between the vote share and
seats won. Many analysts also cite statistics to prove that the Congress still
remains a force to reckon with despite its negative projection in the media. In
these five states, the Congress had contested 363 seats which was almost half
of the 696 seats that the BJP had contested. Still, the former had won 115 of
these seats as against the BJP’s 64. In terms of success rate, the Congress’s
success rate was an impressive 31.6% while the BJP’s was 9.1%.
Yet, in terms of popular support,
the indices did show that the BJP made significant inroads in these states
while the Congress’s support base got eroded in three of these five states.
Not much was expected of it in Tamil
Nadu though, where like the BJP, it remains a junior party. However, this
erosion of vote share did prove decisive for the Congress in Assam as well as
Kerala where the party lost the seat of power.
BJP
Gains Inroads into Kerala
Coming to Kerala, the BJP’s graph in
the state is on ascendance. From just 4.75% vote share in 2006 to 6.03% in
2011, its vote share percentage reached double digits to 10.5% in 2016. In
comparison, the Congress’ graph, which was on a rise (24.09% vote share in 2006
that rose to 26.4% in 2011), declined to 23.7% in 2016. Yet, what is
interesting is that of the seven seats where the BJP emerged as runner-up in
the state, it replaced the Congress only at two constituencies – Chathannur and
Malampuzha. The saffron party’s influence at Kazhakoottam constituency, where
the CPI-M defeated the sitting Congress MLA, could not be discounted as the
Congress came a distant third behind the CPI-M and the BJP this time.
Incidentally, the only seat that the BJP could win for the first time ever in
Kerala, the party defeated not the Congress but the CPI-M!
In the final analysis, what could
not be ignored is that none of these five states were BJP strongholds in the
past. Yet, a victory in Assam was along the predicted lines and the BJP did not
disappoint the psephologists here. To the credit of the Congress, it did
improve its seat tally in West Bengal and returned to power in rather
insignificant Puducherry (where the BJP has little base). This means, despite
being down, the Congress remains a force and in spite of being in power,
whether alone or with its allies, in 13 states, the BJP does have a Herculean
task ahead to fulfill its dream of a ‘Congress-free India”. If the BJP fails,
it will be good for democracy, certainly!
Post Script: After losing Kerala and
Assam, the Congress now rules only six states with just one big state,
Karnataka in this list! Not a mean achievement for Modi and the BJP though!
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