Skip to main content

Summary of TN, Kerala and Puducherry Elections



Summary of TN, Kerala and Puducherry Elections
By Deepak Parvatiyar
May 17, 2016
- See more at: http://www.elections.in/blog/summary-of-tn-kerala-and-puducherry-elections/#sthash.SGHFOydt.dpuf
Voters braved rains in Kerala and Tamil Nadu, but the turnout, as per the initial analysis of figures by the Election Commission on Monday night was less than the 2011 assembly elections as well as the 2014 Lok Sabha elections figures in both the states.
Voting Percentage
The figures received till late Monday night showed over 73% polling in Tamil Nadu and 72% in Kerala. The third poll-bound southern state, Puducherry, though, saw a voter turnout of 84.11 per cent till 8 pm on Monday which was higher than 75.12% in the 2011 assembly polls and 84.05% in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls figures.
All these figures are likely to be revised upwardly as they were not the final figures.
Following Monday’s polling, the over two-month-old election process in the Union Territory of Puducherry and four states of Tamil Nadu, Kerala, West Bengal and Assam now comes to an end. The results will be declared on 19 May.
Candidates
In all, fate of 3776 candidates including 320 women in TN, 1203 candidates including 109 women in Kerala, and 344 candidates including 21 women were sealed in the ballot boxes in the 234 constituencies of Tamil Nadu, 140 of Kerala, and 30 of Puducherry.
While the regional parties lead the pack in all these states, stakes are high for the two national parties, the Congress and the BJP too, here.

Anti-Incumbency Factor in Tamil Nadu and Kerala

With a comparatively lower polling percentage in TN and Kerala, much is being talked about the incumbency factor, too. This is the first time in Tamil Nadu that the state witnessed multi-cornered fight where the People’s Welfare Front, the Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) as well as the BJP-led NDA have emerged as key players trying to make dent in the bipolar politics of the AIADMK and the DMK.
Exit polls, though don’t give any chance to the so called ‘Third Front’, are divided in their verdict. While the CVoter-Times Now exit poll favours the ruling AIADMK, Today’s Chanakya-NewsX as well as Zix My India-India Today predict the return of the DMK to power after five years.
Yet, in a “no wave” elections amidst diluted Dravidian ideology, a victory for AIADMK could well resurrect its supremo and incumbent Chief Minister J. Jayalalitha, whose present stint as CM was interrupted by her conviction in the disproportionate asset case till she returned after winning the legal battle. At the same time, DMK’s victory could well seal the fate of Stalin, as his father and ageing warhorse, M.Karunanidhi, will feel empowered to name the former as his successor.

Exit Polls Predict Victory for UDF in Kerala

In Kerala, however, pollsters are largely unanimous over the defeat of the incumbent chief minister Oomen Chandy-led UDF and victory of the Left Democratic Front (LDF). However, it is worth recalling that a mere 0.89 per cent shift of the votes in the last Assembly polls in the state had helped the Congress-led UDF raise its seats from 40 in 2006 to 72 in 2011 in the 140-member Kerala House!
It is in this context that the role of the BJP-led NDA would be a crucial factor in Kerala politics this time and how the party fares in the elections could well be a determining factor. Small swings of even 0.25 per cent have resulted in creating winners between the traditional rivals, the UDF and the LDF, since 1977. In case the BJP repeats its performance of 2014 Lok Sabha elections when it had cornered 10.63 per cent, or the 2015 local body elections where it had got 14% vote share, it could well emerge as the kingmaker in Kerala this time. It may be mentioned that never before had the BJP’s vote share in Kerala elections had exceeded 5% till 2011 when it had secured 6.03% votes. In the process, it had eaten away 1.3% vote share of the LDF then.

If BJP wins Tamil Nadu

If at all the BJP opens its account in Tamil Nadu, wins a couple of seats in Kerala as predicted by a few exit polls, and also disturbs the incumbent Congress government in Assam, where the exit polls are predicting its victory to power for the first time ever, the saffron brigade will go to the impending UP polls with renewed confidence.
Besides, the DMK winning in Tamil Nadu will bring focus more on Stalin than the DMK partner, Congress; the Trinamool Congress retaining power in West Bengal; and the BJP wresting Assam from the Congress, it will be the Congress Party that will be pushed deeper to the throes of despair. Already after being wiped out in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, it is yet to win an election on its own.
Post 2014 general elections, it tasted defeats in assembly elections in Jharkhand, Maharashtra, Haryana and was completely wiped out in Delhi. The party was forced to join hands with its rivals, the Rashtriya Janata Party and Janata Dal (United), as their junior ally in Bihar and thereafter, with the Left Front in West Bengal.

Prospects of Congress in Puducherry

The Congress, which has allied with the DMK also looks for success in the 30-member Puducherry assembly where it was in power till 2011 before the present chief minister N.Rangaswamy engineered a split in the party to form his All India Namathu Rajiyam Congress before the last state elections. The Congress desperately hopes for anti-incumbency to work against Rangaswamy whose party has decided to go alone in the elections unlike last time when it had allied with the AIADMK only to dump the latter to form the government with the support of an independent MLA. [It may be mentioned that AIADMK as well as DMK do matter in Puducherry the state has enclaves in Karaikal in Tamil Nadu (5 seats), Mahe in Kerala (1 seat) and Yanam in Andhra Pradesh (1 seat)].
- See more at: http://www.elections.in/blog/summary-of-tn-kerala-and-puducherry-elections/#sthash.SGHFOydt.dpuf

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

War between Arvind Kejriwal and Najeeb Jung

War between Arvind Kejriwal and Najeeb Jung By  Deepak Parvatiyar May 21, 2015 Rate this post The ongoing public spat between Lieutenant Governor Najeeb Jung and Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal over the control of Delhi administration has exposed the grey areas in governance that require immediate redressal to ensure against any such crisis in the city state of Delhi. The immediate provocation was the appointment of Shakuntala Gamlin as acting Chief Secretary of Delhi by the Lieutenant Governor in spite of Kejriwal’s strong opposition on 15th May this year. This made the Chief Minister cry foul alleging that the LG was “functioning as if there is President’s Rule in the national capital and there is no elected government here” by bypassing the “democratically elected government…(and) issuing instructions to officers”. Much drama unfolded ever since. Both Kejriwal and Jung indulged into public sparring with Kejriwal even dispatching an angry letter to Jun...
Post a Comment
Read more

Expectations from Chinese President Xi Jinping’s India Visit

Expectations from Chinese President Xi Jinping’s India Visit By  Deepak Parvatiyar September 5, 2014 Much is expected of the ensuing India visit of the Chinese President Xi Jinping both on strategic and economic fronts. Indian Commerce Minister Nirmala Seetharaman visited Beijing at the same time when Prime Minister Narendra Modi was in Japan. India expects Jinping’s visit to pave the way for major Chinese investments in the country, while also hoping China to facilitate Indian IT services exports by removing the barriers. Border dispute between the two countries too are expected to figure in the summit meet. China High on India’s Agenda There is no doubt that China is crucial to the Modi government’s foreign policy. Vice President Hamid Ansari had visited Beijing in June this year (Seetharaman had accompanied Ansari to China then too). At that time both countries had signed a Memorandum of Understanding on facilitating Chinese industrial parks in India...
Post a Comment
Read more

The Legacy of a Callous Force

BOMBAY MUSINGS Corruption, Inefficiency... The Legacy of a Callous Force By Deepak Parvatiyar (in Bombay) (This column was published in Free Press Journal, Bombay on 8th March, 1993) If one ignores its dubious role during the recent riots, the Bombay police did enjoy a reputation which could make the famous Scotland Yard envy it. But the recent riots and the emergence of a corrupt and partisan police force made one wonder about such an hyped-up image of the city police. And as the chroniclers recorded the latest events for posterity as a blotch on the face of the city police, one was tempted to flip the pages of history to find out whether the city police ever bore a semblance to the other three Ps -- profiteering, puissance and pomposity -- which have unceremoniously remained a hallmark of Indian police. The modern police force in the city traces its origin to the Bhandari Militia, which had been established around 1672 mainly due to the efforts of the the...
Post a Comment
Read more