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Summary of Fifth Phase of West Bengal Elections

Summary of Fifth Phase of West Bengal Elections
By Deepak Parvatiyar
April 30, 2016
- See more at: http://www.elections.in/blog/summary-fifth-phase-west-bengal-elections/#sthash.xooxOplO.dpuf
In all, 78.25% of 1,23,97,832 voters turned out for elections for 53 seats in Hooghly, Kolkata(South) and South 24 Pargana districts by 5 pm of the penultimate phase of West Bengal elections on 30 April.
Fate of those among 349 candidates, including 43 women, was sealed in the ballot box included that of biggies such as incumbent chief minister and Trinamool Congress supremo Mamata Banerjee, who is seeking re-election from Bhabanipur and is pitted against the Congress’s former union minister Deepak Dasmunshi and the BJP’s Chandra Kumar Sarkar who is the grandnephew of Netaji Subhash Chandra Bose.

Vote Percentage Comparison

The percentage turnout this time in the three districts was lesser that in 2011 state assembly elections (82.77%) and in 2014 Lok Sabha elections (80.22%). Incidentally, Prime Minister Narendra Modi even tweeted on the polling day, exhorting the voters to “vote in large numbers and be a part of this festival of democracy”.
In the 2011 state elections, the TMC had won 46 seats in the three districts, while the Left had won 3 and the SUCI – a TMC ally then, had bagged one. In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections too, the TMC had led in 49 of these assembly segments.

BJP’s Prospects

What, though, was significant was that in 2014 the BJP had got an impressive 14.9% vote share which was a quantum jump in its tally from a mere 2.9% in 2011. In this light, a polarisation along communal lines can be beneficial for the saffron party, particularly in the wake of the ‘mini Pakistan’ reference to the Muslim-dominated Garden Reach locality by TMC urban development minister Firhad Hakim in an interview to a Pakistani reporter of the Dawn newspaper just before the fifth phase of polling. The BJP was quick to seize the opportunity to rake up the issue and demand Hakim’s expulsion from TMC.

Importance of Muslim Vote

As it is, Muslims play a key role in the fifth phase where 30 seats have over 25% Muslim voters and at least in 21 seats, they have over 50% voters. There are reports that Mamata has lost her grip on the Muslim voters amidst reports of their sufferings because of agrarian crisis and the absence of minimum support price for their produce, as also over the perception of some “tacit” understanding between the TMC and the BJP.

Congress-Left Front Alliance and TMC’s Muslim vote bank

Political pundits feel the fifth phase is crucial not just to gauge the TMC’s popularity among Muslims, but also whether the Congress-Left Front is really able to make a dent into TMC’s Muslim vote bank. Yet, whether the Congress can capitalise on the notional drift of Muslim voters from the TMC would much depend on how the Congress President Sonia Gandhi’s name in the Chopper Gate scandal is perceived particularly by the Muslim voters.
On April 26, during her election rally, she pleaded innocence and went on to equate Mamata with Prime Minister Narendra Modi stating that what both offer is “false hopes and promises”.
Incidentally, things are not much rosy on corruption front even for the ruling TMC as this phase also saw candidates who were purportedly seen in the Narada sting operation footage. (Only a day earlier, the Calcutta High Court had directed the Central Forensic science Laboratory, Hyderabad, to carry out the forensic test of the Narada tapes). In a keen contest, even a minor drift in minority vote can make a big impact.
Whether the BJP benefits from Hakim’s statement is also to be seen in this phase. It is contesting all the 53 seats like the TMC in this phase while the Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPI-M) is contesting 31, and the Congress, 14. But the BJP, for sure, lacks the support base and leg power in this region.

Peaceful Elections

The polling was largely peaceful amid tight security arrangement. In all, 680 companies of central forces were deployed in all the three poll-bound districts. The Election Commission also took some new measures in the last 48 hours such as night patrolling in all the three districts and setting up nakas during night time to prevent “outsiders” as well as “infiltration” from neighbouring countries. This even prompted Mamata comparing the security arrangement to a state of emergency – “They have almost declared an emergency in the state. But we are quiet”.
As per a report released by West Bengal Election Watch, 67 candidates in this phase had criminal cases pending against them with 52 of them facing serious offences such murder and crimes against women. The TMC had fielded the highest number (17) of such candidates. This phase also had 43 multimillionaire candidates.
- See more at: http://www.elections.in/blog/summary-fifth-phase-west-bengal-elections/#sthash.xooxOplO.dpuf

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