What are the stumbling blocks for BJP ahead of Bihar Assembly Elections 2015?

What are the stumbling blocks for BJP ahead of Bihar Assembly Elections 2015?

By Deepak Parvatiyar

October 1, 2015

5.00/5 (100.00%) 4 votes

The Bharatiya Janata Party had done exceedingly well in the state elections in October 2005 as well as in 2010. In October 2005, it had won 55 of the 102 seats that it had contested in alliance with the Janata Dal (United) – a net gain of 18 seats from the previous elections that were heldonly a few months earlier in February. The JD (U) had then won 88 of the 139 seats .

In 2010, the BJP-led NDA had further consolidated its position. While the BJP won an impressive 91 of the of the 102 seats it had contested, the JD (U) won 115 of the 141 seats then.

The JD (U) withdrew from the NDA in 2013 at its own peril as the BJP triumphed in the 2014 general elections in the state by emerging as the largest party winning 22 Lok Sabha seats (a gain of 10 seats) while its new alliance partners, the Lok Janshakti Party and the Rashtriya Lok Samta Party, respectively winning six and three of the 40 Lok Sabha seats in Bihar. The snapping of ties with the BJP proved costly for the JD (U) as it could win on two seats – a loss of 18 seats to the party.

JD (U) in the spot

Ever since things have gone topsy-turvy for the JD (U). The party has split with Mahadalit Jitan Ram Manjhi forming his own Hindustani Awam Morcha and joining hands with the BJP.  The JD (U) leader and Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar’s move to ally with Lalu Yadav’s Rashtriya Janata Dal after the general elections failed to fetch the desired result and the setback continued for Nitish in the state legislative council elections – the first big test for the JD(U)-RJD alliance.

What’s more? Nitish and Lalu’s effort to form a grand alliance or Mahagathbandhan by roping in Mulayam Yadav’s Samajwadi Party, the Nationalist Congress Party besides the Congress failed miserably with both the SP and NCP withdrawing over differences on seat sharing and thereafter forming a third front also comprising Rajesh Ranjan alias Pappu Yadav’s Jan Adhikar Party Loktantrik. The third front as well as the maiden entry of All-India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) into the fray, too, is likely to affect Nitish and Lalu more than the BJP.

This is the first time in last fifteen years that Nitish’s JD (U) is contesting the state assembly elections against the BJP.

BJP’s stumbing blocks

On surface, considering the triumph of the Bharatiya Janata Party in the 2014 general elections in Bihar and its impressive showing in the state’s legislative council elections thereafter, the Lotus seems in full bloom in Patna.  However, the ground reality is not that rosy. The problems for the BJP-led coalition is largely the creation of its own leaders. Consider a few:

a) An FIR has been filed against the BJP leader and one of the BJP’s CM prospects Sushil Kumar Modi at Bhabua police station in Kaimur district this week for violating the model code of conduct by promising sops to voters. Sushil in an election rally in Bhabhua had allegedly promised Rs. 50,000 in cash to meritorious students, colour television sets to Dalits and ‘dhoti and saree’ to poor if NDA came to power.

b) BJP MP from Arrah R.K. Singh dropped a bombshell recently when he accused the party of “selling tickets to criminals”. Being a prominent Rajput face of the party in Bihar, Singh’s statement could harm the BJP in central Bihar and even dilute the party’s attack on Lalu Prasad Yadav’s “jungle raj”.

c) Prior to finding his name in the BJP’s “star campaigners” list for Bihar, cine-star and BJP MP from Patna Saheb, Shatrughan Sinha had caught the party leadership on the wrong foot by openly praising Aam Aadmi Party’s Arvind Kejriwal as well as Nitish. Sinha though claimed he had not crossed the “Lakshman Rekha” (limit) in the party and went on to praise Prime Minister Narendra Modi as a “dashing and dynamic man” and an “action hero”.

d) Reports suggest that over a dozen of BJP’s Lok Sabha Members of Parliament are upset at the ticket distribution as the party preferred as many as 20 turncoats, including 10 sitting legislators of Janata Dal (United), over its own members by giving them tickets. The growing dissident within the party, media reports suggest, has forced the BJP president Amit Shah to himself camp in Patna for at least a week to personally sort out the matter and bring peace within the party.

e) Besides, RLSP leader Upendra Kushwaha, too, had protested the BJP’s decision to announce its first list of 43 candidates on September 15, a day after the NDA seat-sharing was decided, on grounds that talks were still on about the distribution of seats among the NDA partners.

f) Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) chief Mohan Bhagwat’s remarks suggesting a review of the current reservation policy, too, has put the BJP in a spot in Bihar where the backwards, scheduled castes and dalits constitute nearly 76 per cent votes. In a damage control mode, Shah now claims that the party was never against reservation. To assuage the feelings, senior BJP leader Giriraj Singh further declared that the next NDA chief minister would be from the OBC-EBC fold.

g) News of the arrest of key NDA ally Jitan Ram Manji’s son with cash, too, has sent wrong signals and weakened BJP’s campaign against corruption.

h) The open revolt by the sons in law of BJP’s ally Ram Vilas Paswan as well as Jitan Ram Manjhi, too can prove to be the chink in the armour of the NDA that needs to position itself as a cohesive front.

Politics is the art of the possible. The recent election records favour the BJP in Bihar. But if it really needs to succeed, then it is required to overcome the stumbling blocks that are of its own creation. For Lalu and Nitish, who are fighting for their survival, are always formidable opponents in their home territory that is Bihar.

- See more at: http://www.elections.in/blog/what-are-the-stumbling-blocks-for-bjp-ahead-of-bihar-assembly-elections-2015/#sthash.YzCUlZFV.dpuf