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Who are the Key Players in Bihar Assembly Elections?
September 10, 2015
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Elections in Bihar are a complex
exercise considering the significance of caste considerations with all major
castes throwing in their respective lot with their own leaders, often
irrespective of political affiliations. At times, even these caste votes are
divided amongst the leaders of the same caste. It has been observed in the past
when prominent Yadav leaders – Sharad and Lalu – were pitted against each other
in the same constituency by rival political parties. Same has been the case
with other castes, too, although in the past two and half decades the state
politics has been dominated by the Yadavs, mainly the Rashtriya Janata Dal
(RJD) supremo Lalu Prasad Yadav.
This time, Lalu’s indictment in the
fodder case meant he is ineligible to contest but he still remains a formidable
force because of his party’s committed vote bank of Yadavs who constitute a
significant 14.80 per cent votes in the state.
While Lalu and Sharad, who is also
the president of Bihar’s ruling party Janata Dal(United), joined hands, they
face a stiff challenge from yet another prominent Yadav leader, Rajesh Ranjan
alias Pappu Yadav, who floated his own political outfit Jan Adhikar Party
Loktantrik and may join the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic
Alliance (NDA) after he was expelled from Lalu’s RJD in May 2015 for indulging
in “anti-party activities”.
You may also like to read
- Bihar Elections Schedule 2015
- Pre-poll survey of Bihar Elections
- Tussles Over Seat Sharing Ahead of Bihar Assembly Elections
BJP’s
Efforts to Split Yadav Votes
It may be mentioned that in a battle
of Yadavs, Pappu had defeated Sharad from Madhepura by an impressive margin of
56,209 votes in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. This time, he is spewing venom
against both Lalu and Sharad and could prove to be a trump card for BJP in the
upcoming elections. Besides, the BJP’s own Leader of the Opposition in the
Bihar Assembly, Nand Kishore Yadav, too, is playing his card deftly to split
the Yadav votes. As for Lalu, he is promoting his family – his sons Tej Pratap
and Tejaswi, daughter Misa, as well as his wife and former Chief Minister Rabri
Devi. They are all going to play a crucial role for the make or break elections
for Lalu and the RJD. Incidentally, both Misa as well as Rabri had lost in the
last Lok Sabha elections.
Problems
Within the Grand Alliance of Nitish, Lalu and the Congress
Yet, the fate of Lalu and Sharad
depend much on the personal charisma of Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, who is the
mascot of their alliance. Nitish is seeking the mandate for his third term as
chief minister. However, things have changed drastically for him since he
joined Lalu after breaking away from the NDA in 2013. Many consider his move as
a desperate attempt for survival considering his own Kurmi caste support base
is miniscule. While his alliance with the NDA had helped him reap rich dividend
in the last two state elections, his withdrawal from the NDA fold saw a drastic
dip in his popularity as reflected in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections where his
party could win only two of the 40 seats. Even the RJD was able to bag just
four seats in the elections that was swept by the BJP-led NDA in the state.
To add salt to the wound, even the
grand alliance of Nitish, Lalu and the Congress failed miserably in the very
first test when in the Bihar Legislative Council election in July – the first
election since their coming together – the NDA outperformed them by winning 13
seats as against the grand alliance’s 10. In the process, the BJP had more than
doubled its previous tally of seats. (See more at:
http://www.elections.in/blog/tussles-over-seat-sharing-ahead-of-bihar-assembly-elections/#sthash.l54FLYI7.dpuf).
The last minute rift within the
grand alliance, as its president and yet another Yadav leader – the Samajwadi
Party supremo Mulayam Singh Yadav – walked out of the alliance over seat
allocation, too, has shaken the Lalu-Nitish boat despite the fact that
Mulayam’s Samajwadi Party has little political base in Bihar. As if this was
not enough, the entry of Asaduddin Owaisi’s All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul
Muslimeen (AIMIM) in Bihar, too, is a significant development. It is a concern
for Nitish-Lalu’s “secular” camp as it could eat into the 15.5 per cent Muslim
vote bank. Reports suggest that AIMIM may field candidates in 25 seats in
Bihar, which could split the Muslim votes in the state and upset Lalu-Nitish’s
calculations.
Significantly, what makes the grand
alliance still a formidable force is that there is no dispute within the
alliance over its CM candidate. Nitish remains their candidate for the top post
and he has positioned himself as a formidable local face against Prime Minister
Narendra Modi – the face of the NDA in the Bihar elections. Unlike the NDA,
there is a clarity in their seat-sharing formula, too. NCP and SP, who were
marginalised, left the grand alliance well ahead of elections and that has
pre-empted any last minute confusion with regards to seat sharing. In fact, a
recent India TV-C Voter poll went on to suggest Nitish winning again this time
in the state.
Who
will be NDA’s CM Candidate?
In light of this, a recent statement
by Union Home Minister Rajnath Singh that the NDA will soon decide on its CM
candidate shows some reconsideration in its strategy by the NDA. Yet, the
failure of the BJP to project a local leader as CM candidate could be a well
thought out ploy. It had worked favourably for the party in Maharashtra,
Haryana, and Jharkhand in recent elections, where Modi was their mascot.
However, non-clarity over any one CM choice means many claimants for the top
post within the NDA, in case it wins..
As for the NDA partners, Ram Vilas
Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party, Upendra Kushwaha’s Rashtriya Lok Samata Party and
Jiten Ram Manjhi’s Hindustan Awami Morcha have denied any aspiration for the
CM’s post in case the NDA wins. However, the way they have indulged in hard
bargaining to get a lion’s share of the seats – Paswan wants 74 seats, Kushwaha
wants 67 and Manjhi 72 seats to contest – shows that they may not yield as
easily as they are making it out to be, in case of a fractured mandate in the
state. They may resort to horse trading with the BJP for the top slot in the
state.
As for the BJP itself, there are
many key players within its fold who are strong contenders for the coveted CM’s
post, including the leader of Opposition in state legislative council and
former deputy chief minister Sushil Modi. However, many party insiders feel
that Sushil Modi’s own miniscule caste-based support as well as his surname –
that he shares with Prime Minister Narendra Modi – might go against him. Names
of BJP spokesperson Shahnawaz Hussain, Union Ministers Ravi Shankar Prasad and
Rajiv Pratap Rudy are also doing rounds in the political corridors in Bihar as
BJP CM probables.
Shahnawaz is a prominent Muslim face
of the right wing party. However, he had lost the last Lok Sabha elections from
his home turf, Bhagalpur. Incidentally, Bihar has thus far seen only one Muslim
CM, Abdul Ghafoor of the Congress, in the early 70s. But Shahnawaz’s defeat in
the last general elections could well weigh against him this time. Besides, it
is to be seen whether BJP accepts a Muslim face by ignoring its large Hindu
vote bank.
It may be mentioned that Ravi
Shankar Prasad’s Rajya Sabha term is soon to be over. He is an upper caste
Kayastha. Rudy is a Rajput leader. Bihar did have Kayastha as well as Rajput
Chief Ministers in the past. However, things have changed drastically in the
last 25 years with Mandal politics taking over in Bihar. During this period,
the state has not seen any upper caste CM as the state politics has been
dominated by Lalu and Nitish. It is to be seen whether BJP plays the gamble by
making either Prasad or Rudy the CM in a state where the upper caste vote is
hardly about 24 per cent. As for the OBC choice (read Sushil Modi), the
communities themselves are not united in the state as reflected by the groups
led by Nitish, Lalu, and Sushil.
The recent bitter war of words
between dalit leader Paswan and Mahadalit leader Manjhi (both NDA), too, shows
dissonance amongst the dalits and Maha Dalits.
It is in this light, the claim of
the followers of yet another BJP leader, Dr. Prem Kumar, for the top slot draws
attention. A Facebook page has already been launched by his fans who want to
see him as the next CM of Bihar. A six-time MLA, Dr. Kumar has emerged as a
prominent face of the extremely backward class (EBC), which so far had no
leader of its own. In all, 130 castes are categorised as EBC in Bihar, and
together they constitute a formidable 45 per cent votes. Dr. Kumar has emerged
as a strong leader of the community following his good show as Road
Construction as well as Urban Development Minister in the NDA government. He
could well be a proverbial dark horse in the BJP considering his photos in the
banners on the BJP rath (chariot), which has catapulted him back amongst the
favourites for the CM’s slot.
With many aspirants within the NDA
for the CM post, it is going to be a keen battle between Nitish versus the rest
in the Bihar elections, which is to be held in five phases between 12 October
and 5 November. Yet, the biggest player of them all will be none other than
Prime Minister Narendra Modi himself. Being the mascot of the party in the
election, he alone will have to handle the responsibility of leading from the
front, assuaging the feelings of the CM aspirants both within the BJP as well
as the NDA, and charting out ways to defeat Nitish-Lalu combine in their den.
- See more at:
http://www.elections.in/blog/who-are-the-key-players-in-bihar-assembly-elections/#sthash.410u4iqa.dpuf
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