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Tussles Over Seat Sharing Ahead of Bihar Assembly
Elections
September 5, 2015
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A political upheaval grips Bihar as
unity within the alliances – both ruling as well as opposition – goes for a
toss at a time when the day for announcing the dates of elections approaches
near.
The biggest news this week is the
falling apart of the “grand alliance” of the so-called socialist block –
“Janata Parivar” – of which, ironically, even a desperate Congress is a part,
and Samajwadi Party supremo Mulayam Singh Yadav was the president.
Janta Parivar Falls Apart
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On 3 September, Mulayam decided to
quit this “maha-gathbandhan” (grand alliance) over the ill-treatment meted out
to his party over seat distribution. Mulayam’s party was denied any ticket to
contest in Bihar, and to add salt to the wound, Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD)
chief Lalu Prasad Yadav grandiosely announced two seats from his quota of
100 seats along with three Nationalist Congress Party seats for his “samdhi”
Mulayam, who is a relative of Lalu since the latter’s daughter married
Mulayam’s nephew. Peeved over denial of seats, the SP had even staged a dharna
for four days!
As it is, the NCP has already quit
the Nitish-Lalu-Congress alliance over the “meagre” three seats offered to it
during the seat distribution when chief minister Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal
(United) and Lalu’s RJD reserved 100 seats each and left 40 seats to the
Congress.
SP and NCP Cornered in Bihar
Now, a new alliance seems to be in
the process of being launched by SP and NCP. However, the best performance that
the SP had delivered in Bihar was in February 2005 when it had won 4 of the 165
seats it had contested. In the same year, when assembly elections were again
held in October, the SP could win only 2 seats out of the 158 it had contested
then. It had drawn a blank in the 2010 elections in the state when it had
contested 146 seats. The NCP, too, has not much say in Bihar except for the
fact that one of its founders and general secretary, Tariq Anwar, belongs to the
state and is a Lok Sabha member from Katihar in north Bihar. At present, the
party has no seat in the state assembly.
Dispute Over Seat Sharing Among NDA
Allies
Much is also being made out of the
tiff over seat sharing among the alliance partners of the BJP – Ram Vilas
Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party, Upendra Kushwaha’s Rashtriya Lok Samata Party and
Jitan Ram Manjhi’s Hindustan Awami Morcha – as they collectively want a lion’s
share in the seats. Paswan wants 74 seats, Kushwaha wants 67 and Manjhi 72 seats
to contest. Given the fact that the Bihar assembly’s total strength is 243,
this effectively leaves the BJP, which hopes to form government on its own this
time in Bihar, with only 30 seats to contest!
Except for the BJP, all the other
three are fringe players and bank largely on their caste support. Paswan and
Manjhi, both bank on the 15 per cent dalit and mahadalit votes in the state.
Paswan even boasted that “the leader of Dalits and Mahadalits is Ram Vilas
Paswan and I am with the NDA…”
Playing a hard ball game, Paswan
even called for a chief minister from the minority community in Bihar – a
calculated ploy to woo the Muslims and bring them to his fold, which may not
spell success.
All these NDA constituents are
fringe players whose politics is purely based on caste permutations. The LJP
banks on the support of the Paswan and Dalit community who are almost six per
cent of voters in Bihar. Manjhi banks on 15 per cent Mahadalit votes and
Kushwaha’s Koeri community has more than six per cent votes in the state.
Their demand for a larger share
could best be termed as a ploy to get a little more than what they really
deserve – a basic bargaining tactic.
Already much is written about the
Nitish and Lalu regrouping after years of bitter rivalry. The BJP had seized
the opportunity to term it as a return of jungle raj in the state.
Thus, the larger picture that the
tussles over seat sharing within the rival alliance offer is not that of the
predominance of caste considerations in the state alone. They also reflect the
anxiety within the ruling coalition, particularly for two reasons:
a) It failed in the very first test when in the Bihar
Legislative Council election in July – the first election since the
Nitish-Lalu-Congress formed a formal electoral alliance – the BJP-led NDA
outperformed them. The BJP and its alliance partner LJP had then won 12 and 1
seat respectively as against JD (U)’s 5, RJD’s 4, and Congress’ 1. In the
process, the BJP had more than doubled its previous tally of seats.
b)
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s six addresses in the state in the run up to the
elections focused on development. Nitish Kumar and Lalu Prasad Yadav are aware
that the Prime Minister’s special package of Rs 1.25 lakh crore to Bihar and
his thrust on farmer’s development in his Independence Day speech, will indeed
have an impact in a backward and agrarian Bihar. Their concern was reflected
when even Nitish, who had thus far solely tried to exploit the caste sentiments
of the people, quickly shifted his rhetoric to development. “Prime
Minister Narendra Modi has changed the course of the coming elections with his
emphasis on development. This has made Nitish and Lalu’s petty caste-based
politics scurry for cover,” Senior BJP leader and a prominent EBC (Extremely
Backward Class) face of the party, Dr. Prem Kumar, said.
Challenges Before Nitish-Lalu
Alliance
So far as Lalu is concerned, his
reference to the Yadavs in a joint rally in Patna recently, where Nitish and
Congress President Sonia Gandhi too were present, is considered even by his own
party men as a sign of his desperation. “Being out on bail and unable to
contest elections, Lalu seems more concerned about the political future of his
sons. That is why he has joined Nitish,” a former RJD MP and a prominent Yadav
leader said on condition of anonymity. He said last time “10 per cent Yadavs
had left Lalu. This time the percentage will go up to 30”.
Lalu’s repeated references to his
son and his public assertions of being the ‘samdhi’ of Mulayam affirm such
speculations. The BJP now tries to capitalise on this by accusing Lalu of
indulging in dynastic politics – the same as that of the Congress. The Yadav
leaders from the NDA stable – Jan Adhikar Party Loktantrik chief Rajesh Ranjan
alias Pappu Yadav (who was expelled from RJD), and BJP’s leader of the
opposition in the state assembly Nand Kishore Yadav are already trying their
best to make a dent into Lalu’s Yadav territory. Yadavs have a significant
14.80 per cent votes in the state. Besides, the entry of Asaduddin Owaisi’s All
India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) in Bihar, too, has caused a flutter
in Nitish-Lalu’s “secular” camp as it could end the latter’s grip over the 15.5
per cent Muslim vote bank.
As the grand alliance of the Janata
Parivar now turns into grand disintegration, and the NDA itself being held
hostage to intense negotiations over seat sharing, Bihar has entered a crucial
phase in the run up to the state elections. What though is significant is that
development and welfare will now find space in its caste-ridden politics. This
is a good change!
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