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Bihar’s CM contenders: Popular Choices
September 28, 2015
3.00/5 (60.00%) 2 votes
Let there be no ambiguity over the
(lack of) credibility of pre-election surveys. Time and again their spurious
accuracy has been exposed and only about one per cent of them could claim to be
somewhat close to the final poll results. Consider that in the last general
elections to the Lok Sabha in 2014, only Today’s Chanakya had come somewhat
closer to the final outcome by predicting 291 seats for the Bharatiya Janata
Party which finally got 282 seats and 340 seats for the BJP-led National
Democratic Alliance, which got 336.
Elections surveys and predictions
are keen attempts not just to gauge the public mood but even to influence the
public perception/opinion. Therefore, they are like double-edged swords. There
is no denial of the chances of such election surveys being either motivated or
twisted and understandably, the ban on exit polls before the polling is over by
the Election Commission of India is a pointed means to curb such possibilities
of manipulations. Unlike in the USA or UK, where allegiance of media
houses to political parties isclearly spelt out, the same is blurred in Indian
context and this makes it difficult for the common man to separate the wheat
from the chaff.
Still pre-poll predictions are read
and discussed widely every election for the sheer curiosity of the speculative
mind and the same is true in case of Bihar – one of the most politically
vibrant states in the country – this election time.
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As it is, while initial surveys
suggested the ruling Janata Dal (United) – Rashtriya Janata Dal – Congress
grand alliance or Mahagathbandhan to be ahead in a neck-to-neck contest,
the India Today-Cicero as well as Times Now – C-Voter pre-poll surveys
now give a slight edge to the NDA. This leads to yet another exercise over
one’s chief minister’s pick in the state. While newspapers and television
channels are already into conducting their own respective opinion polls on the
matter, they can only be treated with a pinch of salt. Still, the fact is that
every such prediction also creates much debate and anxiety both amidst
politicians and people in a politically sensitive state like Bihar — It is no
fluke that eight of the 66 Central Ministers are from Bihar, making the state
second only to Uttar Pradesh in terms of representation in the Union Council of
Ministers.
Nitish
Kumar
There is no ambiguity over one name,
at least – that of the outgoing chief minister Nitish Kumar – the
Mahagathbandhan’s unanimous choice for the chief minister’s post. If some
newspaper surveys are to be believed, he still is considered the best choice
for the coveted post by many. In a recent India TV-CVoter opinion poll, Kumar
polled an overwhelming 53 per cent to remain the top choice for the CM’s post.
What’s interesting is that as per
the ABP News-Nielsen opinion Poll, Kumar(52%) is even more popular than
prime minister Narendra Modi (47%) in the poll-bound Bihar. But can he make it
to the summit is to be seen considering the adverse survey reports on the poll
prospects of the Mahagathbandhan of which he is a part. But if he wins, this
would be third time in a row that his Janata Dal (United) will lead the
government in the state.
Sushil
Kumar Modi
This election, BJP leader Sushil Kumar
Modi is being touted in media as a favourite for the CM’s slot in case the NDA
forms government in Bihar. Many even in local media feel that he could be an
automatic choice for the top slot since he had already been the deputy chief
minister in Nitish’s cabinet when the JD(U) was a constituent of the NDA till
2013. Besides, he has the longest stint as Opposition leader and was a BJP vice
president for three terms.
Undoubtedly, Sushil has been the
party’s one of the prominent faces in the state for over two decades and like
Nitish, (RJD supremo) Lalu Yadav, (Lok Janshakti Party chief) Ram Vilas Paswan,
he too is a product of the JP movement. He shares his surname with Prime
Minister Narendra Modi and like the latter, sports a beard. But these are the only
thing common between the two. Reports suggest that his outspoken nature and
instances where he even went against prime minister Modi and party president
Amit Shah, may go against him. Besides, he faces stiff challenge from within
the BJP’s state unit itself. Consider, how last year in October a prominent OBC
leader and former BJP national secretary Rameshwar Prasad Chaurasia had openly
challenged any move to project Sushil as the party’s chief ministerial
candidate on grounds that the latter was an “outsider” (he is from Rajasthan).
At that time, former union health minister C.P. Thakur, BJP’s star campaigner
Shatrughan Sinha, former Bihar ministers Dr. Prem Kumar and Satya Deo Naraian
Arya; and MLA Prem Ranjan Patel, among others were with Chaurasiya, who had
openly led a campaign against Sushil. However, Sushil polled 18 per cent votes
in the India TV-CVoter opinion poll – the highest among other NDA leaders. But
can he be the unanimous choice of the NDA in case it forms its government is to
be seen.
Reports suggest that there are at
least 11 NDA leaders who harbor chief ministerial ambitions.
Dr.
Prem Kumar
Dr. Prem Kumar has emerged as a
surprise package this election. A six-time MLA from Gaya since 1990, he is
being touted as a strong CM probable of the BJP given his impressive record as
the minister who singlehandedly transformed Bihar’s roads – something that
everybody from Nitish to Prime Minister Modi now showcase to highlight the
development of Bihar.
A recent Hindustan Times survey
acknowledged Dr. Kumar’s handling of “important portfolios” in the NDA
government, and described him as “BJP’s prominent face from the Extremely
Backward Castes in Bihar”. With a PhD in history and a law
degree as well, Kumar, on his part has already made it clear that as an EBC, he
can easily take on the might of the Mahagathbandhan. With massive support of
the 45 per cent EBCs in the state, his supporters raised slogans demanding that
he be declared as a CM candidate even in front of the prime minister when he
came to address a rally in Bodh Gaya recently.
“I am not saying I should be
projected as the chief ministerial candidate of the party. I can’t say that
myself. It is the demand of the people and party workers,’’ Kumar even told The
Indian Express recently.
Dr. Kumar does appear a dark horse
given that his photos were placed on the BJP’s “parivartan rath” in the state
in spite of the fact that he did not hold any official party position.
Nand
Kishore Yadav
Nand Kishore Yadav is a prominent
Yadav face of the BJP and the leader of the Opposition in the Bihar assembly.
In a contest, where Yadavs dominate both in number and as candidates, the
five-term MLA and a former minister could well count his chance this time. Yet,
he had less legislative experience than Sushil as well as Dr. Prem Kumar.
Besides, his name does not figure much in the opinion polls as well.
Jitan
Ram Manjhi
Jitan Ram Manjhi, who was made the
chief minister by Nitish Kumar only to be sacked unceremoniously, is now a
part of the NDA and declared he is not in the CM’s race. Yet, given his
perceived popularity among the Maha Dalits, who constitute a sizeable 15 per
cent votes, he cannot be written off. Yet, in the ABP News-Nielsen opinion oll
70% of respondents claimed that Nitish Kumar’s performance as CM of Bihar was
better in comparison with Manjhi.
Besides the names of the above
mentioned leaders, there are others, too, who are silently in the contention.
They include the BJP spokesperson and a prominent Muslim face, Syed Shahnawaz
Hussain, who though had lost the last Lok Sabha elections; Union ministers Ravi
Shankar Prasad and Giriraj Singh. While Prasad, a kayasth, is one of the
senior-most BJP leaders from Bihar in Centre, Singh, a Bhumihar, has recently
been in news for his loyalty to PM Modi. But both leaders belong to the Upper
Castes that form just about 24 per cent of the total votes. It may be mentioned
that since 1990, Bihar never had any upper caste CM.
Besides, the two NDA
constituents, Ram Vilas Paswan and Upendra Kushwaha will have an important
say in the next CM’s choice in case the NDA comes to power. Both leaders enjoy
considerable support respectively of their own castes and could prove to be the
game changers in this election. Both have ruled out being in the race for chief
ministership, yet Kushwaha’s party had indeed in the past sought its leader to
be projected as chief minister. Incidentally, Paswan had also left the Atal
Behari Vajpayee-led NDA in 2002 after the Gujarat riots. Not to mention,
Narendra Modi was the Gujarat chief minister then.
- See more at:
http://www.elections.in/blog/who-are-the-key-players-in-bihar-assembly-elections/#sthash.UqXEzKGs.dpuf
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