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AIMIM to contest Bihar polls from Seemanchal
September 18, 2015
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Much is being discussed over
Asaduddin Owaisi’s All-India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) entry into
Bihar this elections. Rightly so. His party’s debut in the Maharashtra assembly
elections last year had upset many calculations as it had succeeded in weaning
away a section of Muslim and Dalit voters in the state. Out of the 24
seats that it had contested in the state, it had won two, which many considered
to be a wake-up call for other political parties. Ever since, it has continued
its good show in Maharashtra, penetrating wide and deep into the state’s
political space. Only in April this year, in the elections to the 113-member
Aurangabad Municipal Corporation, it won an impressive 25 of the 54 seats it
contested. In the process, it ate up the votes of the “secular” parties – the
Congress and the Nationalist Congress Party whose strength was reduced from 30
to 13 and they were respectively pushed to third and fourth spots as AIMIM went
on to occupy the major Opposition block in the Bharatiya Janata Party-Shiv Sena
ruled AMC.
Like in Maharashtra, Owaisi has
decided to field 24 candidates in the Seemanchal region of Bihar in AIMIM’s
debut election in the state, in a bid to gather stakes outside Telangana and
Andhra Pradesh by pitching himself as the voice of Indian Muslims. Hence, the
selection of Seemanchal in Bihar is indeed seems a calculated ploy given
the Muslim predominance in the region comprising Araria, Purnea, Kishanganj and
Katihar districts. Of these four districts, Kishanganj bordering Bangladesh has
an overwhelming 67.98 per cent Muslim population while Araria and Katihar have
well over forty per cent Muslim population (42.98% and 44.47% respectively),
and Purnea, nearly 40 per cent Muslim population. In all, at least 10 of the 24
assembly seats in Seemanchal are dominated by Muslims and this is a significant
chunk that AIMIM has targeted by making “justice of Seemanchal” its main poll
plank,“We will demand a regional development board under Article 371 of the
constitution for the overall development of Seemanchal.”
More than the BJP, Owaisi’s entry
has rattled the so called “secular brigade” in Bihar who now fear consolidation
of Hindu votes – thus far split into various castes, as well as a division in
Muslim votes that would upset the caste based calculations – the hallmark of
Bihar elections, and consequently harm their poll prospects considering that
Owaisi, a Member of Parliament from Hyderabad is widely considered a polarizing
figure. There is all likelihood that he will resort to firebrand speeches that
he is known for. He in the past was critical of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s
“anti-Muslim” sentiments. His younger brother and AIMIM legislator Akbaruddin
Owaisi was once even arrested for his hate speech.
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Yet while Seemanchal accounts for
hardly 10 per cent of the total seats in Bihar Assembly, Owaisi’s fiery
election speeches in the region could well have a much wider impact in the
state.
Had Owaisi not been in the picture —
and even with SP and NCP walking out the alliance – the Rashtriya Janata
Dal-Janata Dal (United) and Congress Mahagathbandhan or grand alliance had been
cautiously hopeful of making some gains in the region.
This is what makes the “secular”
brigade or the Mahagathbandhan cagey. Although they had fared miserably in
Seemanchal in the 2010 state elections where the Congress and Rashtriya Janata
Dal could win only two and one seats respectively (The JD-U, then an ally of
the BJP though had won four assembly seats from the region then), they were
expecting better prospects this time considering that the BJP had lost its
three Lok Sabha seats — Araria, Purnea and Katihar — in the 2014 polls.
Reports that AIMIM may even join
hands with the third front comprising Nationalist Congress Party and Samajwadi
Party that would further eat up their vote share in the region too causes
worries to the RJD-JD(U)-Congress combine. Understandably the
Mahagathbandhan has reacted sharply to Owaisi’s entry into the fray in Bihar.
Senior RJD leader Neyamatullah even went to the extent of claiming that
Owaisi’s decision to contest polls only from Seemanchal was a part of a
conspiracy. JD(U) spokesman KC Tyagi went on to say that voters should be “wary
of BJP agents”, suggesting as if Owaisi was a BJP plant.
The AIMIM boss has dismissed such
speculations claiming, “I dare anybody to prove I have taken money from the RSS
and the BJP to contest the Bihar elections. The allegations are
shocking…(Rashtirya Janata Dal Supremo) Lalu (Yadav) and (Bihar Chief Minister
and JD-U leader) Nitish (Kumar)are asking the MIM that why we are fighting the
elections, but they are not asking the same to Mulayam.”
Interestingly, reports have appeared
in sections of media in the poll bound state suggesting there is no need for
Owaisi in Bihar because “Muslims feel pretty safe in Bihar” and that the state
has not seen any major communal riot since the 1989 Bhagalpur riots. However,
such arguments hold no good and Owaisi ridiculed such reports stating in a TV
show recently, whether the protection of life and limb was some kind of favour
shown by “secularists” to Muslims?
What is significant though is that
Owaisi is pitching AIMIM as a party of not just Indian Muslims but also Dalits
– “I want the broad alliance of the two groups to take on the BJP.” He had
attempted to do so in Maharashtra with considerable success and this is what
has worried even the BJP-National Democratic Alliance in Bihar which had fared
well in Seemanchal and won 13 seats in the 2010 assembly elections. Its ally
and Dalit-focussed Lok Janshakti Party, too had then won two seats in the
region and their then ally, the JD(U) had then won four seats.
Little surprise, therefore, that the
BJP-ally Lok Janshakti Party MP Chirag Paswan acknowledged that “Owaisi is
eyeing a specific vote bank, which is a strong social support base of
(prominent Dalit leader) LJP chief Ram Vilas Paswan”. BJP spokesperson and
former union minister Shahnawaz Hussain said the BJP was “ready to give tough
fight” to Owaisi in Seemanchal where “Muslims in sizeable numbers will support
us”.
Obviously Owaisi has ruffled many feathers with his maiden entry in Bihar elections. But can he really succeed? If so, he could well be compared with the All India Democratic United Front (AIUDF) chief Maulana Badruddin Ajmal, whose party has done remarkably well in Assam where ever since winning 10 of the 126 seats in 2006, it progressed to emerge as the second largest party in the Assam Legislative Assembly by winning 18 seats in 2011. In 2014, it further increased its tally of MPs from one in 2009 to three in 2014.
Obviously Owaisi has ruffled many feathers with his maiden entry in Bihar elections. But can he really succeed? If so, he could well be compared with the All India Democratic United Front (AIUDF) chief Maulana Badruddin Ajmal, whose party has done remarkably well in Assam where ever since winning 10 of the 126 seats in 2006, it progressed to emerge as the second largest party in the Assam Legislative Assembly by winning 18 seats in 2011. In 2014, it further increased its tally of MPs from one in 2009 to three in 2014.
How well Owaisi fares in Bihar will
go some way in foretelling hold on the Muslims in the country. He has already
set his eyes on the state elections in two states with significant Muslim
population – West Bengal in 2016 and Uttar Pradesh in 2017. Bihar can be his
stepping stone and one thing is for sure that he has indeed set the cat among
the pigeons.
- See more at:
http://www.elections.in/blog/aimim-tocontest-bihar-polls-from-seemanchal/#sthash.MsdAQDhm.dpuf
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