Political Equations in Bihar and BJP’s Poll Prospects
Published in elections.in (http://www.elections.in/blog/political-equations-in-bihar-and-bjp-poll-prospects/)
July 27, 2015
Much before the Vyapam scam of Madhya Pradesh made the state a dreaded place because of the numbers of unnatural deaths of persons involved in the scandal, and the links of political bigwigs in the case, it was actually Bihar that was dubiously referred to as an aberration because of the numerous scandals, political murders and dubious and often criminal track records of the politicians in the state.
Recently Prime Minister Narendra Modi, during his day’s visit to the election bound state on 25th July, sought to singularly point out at Lalu Yadav’s Rashtriya Janata Dal for Bihar’s plight, and ingeniously expanded the party’s abbreviated form, RJD, as “Rojana jungleraj ka dar (daily fear of jungle raj)”. Why so? Ostensibly Modi cannot ignore the RJD, which is now an alliance partner of the ruling Janata Dal–United and the Congress in Bihar. But at a time when Modi’s own political outfit, the Bharatiya Janata Party is plagued by the Vyapam scam in MP and the Lalitgate scandal involving the external affairs minister Sushma Swaraj and Rajashthan’s BJP Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje, can his strategy to nail RJD over its alleged jungle raj, help his party win in Bihar?
No doubt that the fifteen years of the RJD rule (between 1990 and 2005) in Bihar had seen a mass exodus of Biharis from the state, and a systematic degradation of law and order in the state under Lalu and his wife Rabri Devi. Lalu himself got convicted along with 40 others in a Rs. 900-crore fodder scam and was sentenced to five years in prison and imposed with a fine of Rs. 25 lakh by a special Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) court in October 2013. As per the new law, he is now disqualified from contesting elections. Former Bihar Chief Minister Jagannath Mishra (He was a Congress CM and a Union Minister. After leaving Congress, he joined the NCP and thereafter the JD-U) and JD-U Member of Parliament Jagdish Sharma, too, were sentenced to four years imprisonment in the case.
Like the Vyapam scam, more than a dozen people associated with the fodder scam too, had died unnaturally. But these were not the only cases and in fact, scams and political murders prevailed even during the Congress rule in the state. Remember how in the eighties, the then CM Jagannath Mishra of the Congress was charged with selling off Patna’s Gandhi Maidan and railway station? A cooperative scam too had surfaced during his rule in the state then. Besides, the sensational Bobby murder case way back in the 1980s allegedly had the involvement of several Youth Congress leaders, including the son of a former Speaker. Bobby (whose original name was Shwetnisha Trivedi), a telephone operator in the secretariat, was found murdered under mysterious circumstances in Patna. The police recovered her exhumed body so as to nail the real culprit but just when it was about to book the son of a top Congress leader holding a Constitutional post, the Superintendent of Police who was investigating the case, was given marching orders and the case received a quiet burial.
The Congress still held its fort under different CMs till 1990 when finally the RJD replaced it in the state.
It has been a decade though that the RJD government too, was voted out and replaced by the Bharatiya Janata Party backed Janata Dal (United) government. Much water has flown down the Ganges since then.
“The public has a short memory. That’s why all these big stars do these crazy, terrible things and two years later they’re back in the biz, you know…”Hollywood comedian Stephen Glenn “Steve” Martin had once famously said. He knew it well. Lalu, despite being convicted by the court, is back with a vengeance, strategizing his party’s moves before the upcoming Bihar elections after he was granted bail by the Supreme Court in December 2013. Ahead of the polls, the RJD has now joined hands with the ruling JD(U), which severed its ties with the BJP over a personality clash between Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and the then BJP’s Prime Ministerial candidate Narendra Modi in June 2013. (Even in 2010, when still in alliance with the BJP, Nitish had ensured that Modi did not campaign for the BJP in Bihar as he anticipated that it could have dissuaded the Muslims from voting for his party (refer to http://www.elections.in/blog/a-sneak-peek-into-bihar-2010-elections/).
The entire development indeed shows shades of political opportunism instead of any principled stand and ideology that guide political parties’ recurrent marriages and divorces with one another in Bihar. It alsosuggests that scams and scandals, or even court verdicts are immaterial in the state where caste considerations take over all other considerations.
It may be pointed out here that although in the last assembly elections in 2010, CM Nitish Kumar had won on the plank of development of the state, the caste equation still played a decisive role and Nitish did mobilise caste groups that hinged on the combination of ‘Upper castes + Extremely Backward Castes (Except Yadavs) and Mahadalits + (particularly OBC) Muslims’ then!
It is in this light that the impact of a Lalitgate or a Vyapam scam needs to be analysed in Bihar’s context. Can these scandals cast their shadow on the outcome of the Bihar elections and prove a nemesis for the BJP which is perceived to be neck deep in the twin scandals – the Vyapam and the Lalitgate?
Remember how People from Lalu Prasad Yadav’s village Phulwaria in Bihar’s Gopalganj district had decided not to eat anything to express solidarity with their leader when Lalu was convicted in the fodder scam? Not surprising, therefore, that his wife Rabri Devi had made an emphatic statement then that “Lalu Prasad is a hero and will remain a hero in future, too”. Lalu, in spite of being convicted in a scam and despite the fact that he is out of the jail on bail and that he cannot contest elections, remains a potent political force in the state for his party.
It is therefore apparent that the Nitish-Lalu led opposition does not see much scope to nail the BJP on Vyapam or Lalitgate. Ostensibly, their move to exploit these scandals appears muted. Consider Lalu’s statement on the Lalitgate scandal: “Sushma Swaraj is a woman. She should not be pestered over the issue. Political parties should not pester her more.” Lalu had even expressed his “surprise” over Vyapam scam deaths in MP and reportedly said that it was difficult to know who would die where under what circumstances, relating to Vyapam scam in Madhya Pradesh.
Similarly, when the Congress moved ahead to disrupt the ongoing Monsoon session of Parliament over the twin issues, the JD(U) was perceptibly guarded in its reaction —”This is not correct. Parliament will run but government must allow discussion,” JD(U) President Sharad Yadav had said when asked about the Congress stand.
Although the JD(U) and the RJD did subsequently support the Congress’s move in Parliament, Sharad Yadav, in fact preferred to praise himself as well as the BJP veteran Lal Krishna Advani for resigning as MPs after their names had cropped up in the Jain Hawala case in the 1990s.
Obviously the Congress has little relevance in Bihar politics as of today and understandably its alliance partners – the RJD and the JD-U – are unwilling to yield it much political space. Nitish remains the alliance’s face for the CM role. He is comparatively non-controversial and untainted with scams. Yet, the surge of the BJP in the state was shown in the last Parliament elections and his own limitations too become evident as his caste Kurmi is outnumbered by Lalu’s Yadavs. Besides, Lalu also has the capacity to make a dent in Nitish’s Muslim support base.
Further, the Mahadalit factor makes the situation even more compulsive for Nitish-Lalu duo to rely on each other as Modi and his strategists successfully weaned away the social base of over 15 per cent Extremely Backward Caste (EBC) and Mahadalits from Nitish in 2014 Lok Sabha elections. Their face and one time Nitish’s protégé Jitan Ram Manjhi, who Nitish had even anointed as CM before forcing him to step down, has joined the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance and this is a big boost to the BJP. Yet, BJP’s biggest drawback is the absence of any CM face in Bihar. It hopes that the Modi magic will work in Bihar like it did in Jharkhand, Haryana and Maharashtra recently. Yet, while corruption (and political stability in case of Jharkhand) was a major issue in all these states, the Aam Aadmi Party demolished the Lotus in the Delhi elections on the very issue of corruption!
Obviously, the caste-ridden Bihar is an altogether different ball game where all other considerations including corruption issues take a back seat! Hence Modi, it appears, hopes to get a foothold in the state by taking a leaf out of Nitish’s ‘development agenda’ by announcing a cash bonanza in the BIMARU state. In his rally in Muzaffarpur – famous for its lychees – he promised to dole out over Rs. 50,000 crore development package to Bihar after the Monsoon session of Parliament! More sops may be in offing for Bihar as Modi needs to rebuild his image not only because of his party’s involvement in Vyapam and Laltigate scams, but also after it got a drubbing at the hands of Arvind Kejriwal in the Delhi state elections in February this year! But will Bihar vote for the BJP? The question seems as complex as the state’s caste-ridden-corruption-driven politics
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