Can Bihar Assembly Elections Help Congress Recover?
June 6, 2015
Rahul Gandhi’s silence over the agrarian crisis in Bihar is cryptic considering that the issue of farmers’ suicides was high on his agenda after his return from the nearly two-month sabbatical. In less than a month, at least three suicide cases have been reported in Bihar- a state that goes to polls later this year- but astoundingly, Rahul is yet to react to them! Despite media reports of his likely visit to the earthquake-hit state in May, the Congress vice-president did not show up at all.
Rahul’s silence does speak much of his present dilemma- to be (with the ruling Janata Dal (United)- Rashtriya Janata Dal alliance) or not to be (and go all alone at the hustings in the state)!
How Did Congress Make Way for Regional Parties in Bihar?
As it is, political commentators have already written off the Congress in Bihar. The reasons are manifold- the biggest being the party’s failure to win back the confidence of the sizeable Muslim population (who constitute over 16 per cent of the total votes in the state) ever since they were alienated from the party after the infamous Bhagalpur riots of 1989. Till then, Bihar was the undisputed Congress bastion where the party had lost only once in 1977 owing to the Janata Party wave.
It is significant that since 1990, the Congress could never form a government on its own in the state, which was taken over by the regional satraps Laloo Yadav and Nitish Kumar and their respective political outfits. Laloo’s RJD remained at the helm in Bihar for 15 years since 1990 largely because of the unflinching loyalty of his own Yadav community, which comprises about 20 per cent votes in the state, and the Muslims.
The RJD government was finally toppled by Nitish’s JD(U)-led National Democratic Alliance comprising the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in 2005. In between, on 3 March 2000 too, Nitish was appointed the Chief Minister but he had to resign seven days later after he failed to prove majority. Thereafter, the RJD again returned to power and held its position till Nitish finally toppled it in the 2005 elections.
Congress’ Dismal Performance in 2010 Bihar Assembly Elections
Nitish’s moves before the 2010 state elections such as re-opening the infamous Bhagalpur riots cases and ensuring compensation and pension for the victims and conviction of the accused, did go well with the Muslim community and after the elections, the JD(U) had the largest representation of Muslim MLAs, seven to be precise. This was despite the party’s alliance with the BJP! Still, his association with the BJP did prove detrimental as the party could not help JD(U) fetch the desired result in the Muslim belt. In seats with above 40 percent Muslim vote, the JD(U) had then won just one out of the five seats it had contested! Still, the JD(U) won an impressive 115 of the 141 seats it had contested. The BJP won 91 of the 102 seats it had contested as per the seat-sharing arrangements with the JD(U).
At that time, the RJD surpassed its rivals in only 22 of the 168 seats, and the Lok Janshakti Party (now a BJP ally) won three of the 75 seats it had contested. It is worth pointing out that the Congress, in spite of contesting all 243 seats, had won only four assembly seats in Bihar in 2010! Nitish’s development agenda in 2010 and clever mobilisation of caste groups – the ‘Upper castes + Extremely Backward Castes (Except Yadavs) and Mahadalits + (particularly OBC) Muslims’- made him return to power. (refer Sneak Peek Into Bihar 2010 Elections )
Caste Equation in Bihar Politics
However, things changed fast since 2014 general elections, when Nitish left the NDA and made a maha alliance with the RJD, and left the option of a junior partner for the Congress largely because of the caste factor. Nitish and Laloo belong to the backward castes although Nitish’s Kurmi constitute just about four per cent of the total votes as against Laloo’s 20 per cent Yadavs. In a fast changing caste-based political scenario, the 23 per cent mahadalits represented by Hindustani Awam Morcha – a new political outfit by ex-CM Jitan Ram Manjhi (one time Nitish confidante) — Ram Vilas Paswan’s LJP, as well as the Muslims have emerged as the crucial segments to be wooed by the political parties.
While the LJP is already a BJP ally, both the RJD as well as the BJP are reportedly wooing Manjhi – who is being considered more influential than Paswan at the moment. The Congress seems to have missed out on this opportunity. But the party still eyes the Muslim support although Laloo does wield considerable influence on the Muslim vote bank. Just consider that even though it had got much lesser seats, the RJD’s vote share was larger than that of the BJP’s in 2010!
Congress’ Dilemma
This explains the present dilemma of Rahul Gandhi and his studied silence on Bihar. The options before the Congress is either to bargain better by brokering peace between the RJD and the JD(U) since both are engaged in a slugfest over seat-sharing, or to go all out again without any alliance in the upcoming elections. In case of the latter, initial reports suggest that the Congress could not get more than about 40 seats to contest as both the JD(U) and the RJD want a lion’s share – each well over 100 seats to contest.
Many beleaguered state Congress leaders hope that by sharing the space with the RJD-JD(U) combine, the Congress could
- a) win back the confidence of the Muslims
- b) help the alliance wean away a section of upper caste voters that has gone with the BJP
However, the young brigade in the Congress wants the party to go all alone because it will galvanise workers and organisation and the party will escape the association of Laloo and Nitish who, it argues, are fast losing their credibility.
This difference yet again reflects the bickering within the party and lack of unanimity among its leaders.
This difference yet again reflects the bickering within the party and lack of unanimity among its leaders.
Many eyes are now on the outcome of the biennial election to the Bihar Legislative Council’s 24 local authorities constituencies due in July. However, these elections cannot be a true barometer of what is in store for the parties ahead of the assembly polls though, here too, seat-sharing did emerge as a major bone of contention between the RJD and the JD(U) while the Congress staked its claim on four seats.
Rahul Needs to Tackle Leadership Crisis in Bihar
In recent times, Rahul has shown a penchant for taking it on alone. However, for any significant progress of the Congress in the state, he needs to move to Bihar. So far, he has been a reluctant warrior. During a visit to Bihar in 2010 Rahul was heckled by the students in Darbhanga over his faux pass when he mentioned Gujarat instead of Bihar. The students forced him to flee the campus of the Lalit Narayan Mithila University. He needs to keep such unsavoury memories away and visit Bihar. The sooner, the better because the Congress does face a leadership crisis in the state as its state leaders are no match to the stature of Laloo, Nitish, and last but not the least, Narendra Modi – who single-handedly won the elections for the BJP in the neighbouring Jharkhand, recently
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