What would be the fallout if N Chandrababu Naidu quits NDA?
March 4, 2015
In 1999, Nara Chandrababu Naidu was the unquestionable ‘King Maker’ as the support of his Telugu Desam Party’s 24 members of parliament was crucial for the survival of the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance government at the Centre.
He though left the NDA after the 2004 loss, blaming the BJP for the Gujarat riots. Ostensibly his target was the then Gujarat Chief Minister (now Prime Minister) Narendra Modi.
Isn’t it ironical therefore that Naidu chose to return to the NDA fold well after a decade and at a time when Modi was the BJP’s prime ministerial candidate?
Obviously, it was a political decision devoid of any ideological consideration at a time when Naidu’s popularity in Andhra Pradesh was a matter of conjecture—especially with the division of the state and the rise of Jaganmohan Reddy. As for the BJP, he indeed was a prized catch since it was steadily bleeding allies to the extent that it was only left with Shiv Sena and Akali Dal as NDA partners after 2004.
The pre-elections alliance with the NDA did help Naidu in AP where he returned as CM in the bifurcated state and his party could win 15 Lok Sabha seats. But it was at what price? Reports suggest that the BJP had driven a hard bargain then as it was aware of Naidu’s desperation to cement the alliance.
Naidu disappointed with the Andhra Pradesh being ignored in the Union Budget
The chinks in such fragile arrangement are exposed now. Naidu is disappointed with the “raw deal” meted out to AP in the Union Budget 2015-16. He is unhappy over the “abysmal” allocations of over Rs 350 crore to AP and a “niggardly” Rs 100 crore to the purported national project Polavaram, and now publicly protests against the “non-operationalisation” of the Andhra Pradesh Re-organisation agreement which entailed a grant of some major funds to the survivor state of AP after its bifurcation.
Yet, the Budget only seems an immediate provocation. Naidu had expressed his displeasure that the 14th Finance Commission “hasn’t made any specific award for AP though it acknowledged that we suffered fiscal damage due to bifurcation”. He was also unhappy with the Railway budget as the much touted Visakhapatnam special railway zone had not found a place in Suresh Prabhu’s 2015-16 Railway Budget. Reports further suggest that Naidu also seems upset as Modi ignored his request for appointments on more than one occasion.
Cornered to the wall, Naidu now drops hints of pulling out of the NDA. Yet he is careful enough to state: “I am not going to play petty politics.”
So will Chandrababu Naidu withdraw now?
His dilemma is obvious. He realises that unlike in 1999, his support is not required for the BJP in Lok Sabha. The only way he could wield his influence on the government is with his six Rajya Sabha MPs. Consider how on February 3, the Opposition embarrassed the government by managing to get an amendment passed over President Pranab Mukherjee’s Motion of Thanks address on corruption and black money. This was only the fourth such instance in Rajya Sabha’s history. Obviously short of numbers in the Upper House at least for two more years, the BJP would ill afford to lose allies such as the TDP. Yet, at the same time it is well aware of the TDP’s political limitations and is exploiting the same.
Ostensibly Naidu is vexed over the growing proximity between Modi and the Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) chief K Chandrashekhara Rao – the chief minister of Telangana. Political grapevine is abuzz with reports that Rao’s daughter and Nizamabad MP K Kavitha, could well find a place in the Union Cabinet in the next expansion.
Yet, the TRS only has one Rajya Sabha member!
Hence it makes sense for Naidu to bide his time and this explains why he still insists on meeting the prime minister.
But can the two continue for long?
There are no permanent friends or foes in politics
As it goes, in politics nobody is a permanent friend or enemy. This has been more obvious in recent times particularly concerning the BJP wherein the Modi-(BJP President Amit) Shah duo have seemingly maintained a stress-stretch relationship with their allies and appeared more bent on testing the limits of an alliance. Consider how the long time ally Shiv Sena was dumped at the drop of a hat by the BJP when it found the support of the Nationalist Congress Party to form the government in Maharashtra after the fractured verdict in the state. Yet, when the Shiv Sena fell in line by softening its demand for plump portfolios in the ministry, it conveniently dumped the NCP for the sake of the revival of the 25-year-old alliance.
Apparently political relevance and practical considerations have become more important for the BJP than ideological similarities and lasting relationships, now. Consider how the BJP did not hesitate to snap ties with the Haryana Janhit Congress after the party failed to open its account in Haryana in the last general elections. Yet, another example was that of the Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (MDMK), which became the first ally to step out of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), on grounds that Prime Minister Narendra Modi had “reneged on his promise” that the BJP-led government would not support Sri Lanka and its President Mahinda Rajapaksa. Yet, the MDMK, which had forged a pre-election alliance with the BJP, had lost its relevance with no members either in the Lok Sabha or in the Rajya Sabha at present. It had also not contested the last assembly elections in Tamil Nadu.
Another case in point is the Lotus joining hands with the Jammu and Kashmir People’s Democratic Party despite their ideological differences to form the government in J&K, to encash, in the words of Union Finance Minister Arun Jaitley, a “historical opportunity to bring about larger reconciliation in Jammu & Kashmir in larger national interest ”. (The differences between the two parties have emerged straightaway after the government formation).
Obviously the BJP, having tasted blood at the hustings, now wants a lion’s share everywhere and it cannot be faulted for this. But this definitely irks Naidu as the BJP’s expansionist plans are also visible in Andhra where it has already managed to break the Congress by winning over the latter’s three former MPs and 10 former MLAs to its fold. It is also reportedly eyeing fence sitters from the YSR Congress in order to expand in the state.
Obviously Naidu needs to take a stand now. But can he afford to snap ties with the NDA? Besides, as for the BJP, can its “you fall in line” approach for the allies work for long? An interesting political battle is on the cards between Naidu and Modi.
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