A sneak peek into Bihar 2010 Assembly Elections
By Deepak Parvatiyar http://www.elections.in/blog/a-sneak-peek-into-bihar-2010-elections/
March 9, 2015
Much water has flown down the Ganges since the last assembly elections in Bihar. Although elections are still a few months away in the state, political equations are changing fast in the caste-sensitive state.
A whole new set of permutation and combinations have emerged at the political front in the state with the coming together of the rivals Janata Dal (United) and the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD). With the Congress too pitching in, the scenario has changed drastically since the last state assembly elections in 2010 when the JD(U)-Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) alliance was firmly in the saddle. The battle line up seems clear with the JD(U) shunning the BJP to join hands with the RJD and the Congress.
This time the intra party bickering within the ruling Janata Dal (United) too is yet to simmer down after Nitish Kumar replaced Jitan Ram Manjhi as chief minister. Manjhi, a Maha Dalit, has since then floated his own political front, the Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM).
This gives an interesting twist to the Dalit and Muslim-centric politics of Kumar considering that another prominent Dalit outfit, Ram Vilas Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party (LJP), became a constituent of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance just on before last year’s general elections.
It may be mentioned that although the mandate in 2010 was for Nitish’s “development agenda’, the caste equation still had a dominant role at the hustings. Consider how Nitish had mobilized caste groups that hinged on the combination of ‘Upper castes + Extremely Backward Castes (Except Yadavs) and Mahadalits + (particularly OBC) Muslims’ then.
Consider the performances of the major parties in 2010 after the month-long gruelling six-phased elections for the 243-member Bihar House. The elections were marred by the Naxal threats and spate of violence. While the first five phases had seen an average of 52 per cent voter turnout, the final phase had recorded 51 per cent turnout then.
At that time the JD(U), which had partnered the BJP, had won an impressive 115 of the 141 seats that it had contested. In the process, it had cornered 22.61 per cent votes. Its partner, the BJP, had then cornered 16.46 per cent votes and had won 91 of the 102 seats that it had contested as per the seat sharing arrangements with the JD(U). In sharp contrast, the RJD could win only 22 of the 168 seats that it had contested while the Congress that contested all 243 seats could register victories in only four seats. The LJP had then won three of the 75 seats that it had contested.
The situation has changed in Bihar with the revival of the Lotus
What though is significant is that the RJD’s vote share was larger than that of the BJP’s. However, things have changed drastically after the revival of the Lotus under Narendra Modi. Its juggernaut seemed unstoppable till recently after its stupendous success in the last general elections. It went on to win Maharashtra, Haryana, Jharkhand and emerged as the second largest party for the first time in Jammu and Kashmir. However, the Delhi state election results applied brakes on its victory march where the Aam Aadmi Party swept the polls, winning 67 of the 70 assembly seats. What was significant though was the entire third front that included Bihar parties JD(U), RJD besides the Samajwadi Party, Trinamool Congress, CPI and CPI(M), supported the AAP by not fielding their candidates that could have split the votes and benefitted the BJP.
The rivalry between Nitish and (Prime Minister) Modi has assumed an epic proportion. Even in 2010, when still in alliance with the BJP, Nitish had ensured that Modi did not campaign for the BJP in Bihar as he anticipated that it could have dissuaded the Muslims from voting for his party. He was candid enough to say that his party, though in alliance with the BJP, had “nothing in common” with the Lotus. He finally parted ways with the BJP after the latter made Modi its prime ministerial candidate before last year’s general elections.
So how these fresh alliances will impact the battle for Bihar? It needs to be analysed not just from the Development angle but also by taking into account the caste factor.
In the last state elections, a large chunk of the Upper Caste votes (Brahmin, Rajput and Kshatriyas) had gone to the BJP-JD(U) alliance. It may now drift to the BJP. However, the coming together of the JD(U) and Lalu Prasad Yadav’s RJD means that the Yadav’s (who constitute about 20 per cent of the population) return to Nitish’s fold. The new front is also likely to consolidate the support of the Muslims and the Other Backward Castes (Both Nitish and Lalu belong to this category).
Bihar has 38 reserved for Scheduled Castes (SC) and 2 for Scheduled Tribes (ST). Singnificantly the BJP had then won 18 SC seats and also bagged one ST seat while the JD(U) had won 19 SC reserved seats and one STseat. The remaining SC seat was won by the RJD.
2010 election saw an increase in Muslim representation
It may be pointed out that the 2010 elections had witnessed a remarkable increase in the Muslim representation in the Bihar Legislative Assembly. Their tally has increased from 14 in 2005 to 19 in the new House. While seven Muslims then won on the JD(U) ticket, RJD had six Muslim MLAs while three of the four Congress MLAs were Muslims. The LJP too had got two Muslim elected as MLAs then.
Muslims constitute a sizeable vote back in Bihar and percentage of Muslim representation in the state did go up by two per cent in 2010.What was significant was that Muslim candidates were in second position in more than 30 seats across the state.
Obviously Nitish’s move to ensure that Modi (who was the CM during the Guajrat riots in 2002), did not campaign in Bihar was perceptibly well received among the Muslims. His moves before the 2010 state elections such as re-opening the infamous Bhagalpur riots cases, and ensuring compensation and pension for the victims and conviction of the accused, too had gone well with the Muslim community then. It was no coincidence therefore that the JD(U), whose seven Muslim candidates won then, had the largest Muslim MLAs in 2010. Yet his association with the BJP then, did not fetch him the desired result in the Muslim belt. In seats with above 40 percent Muslim vote, he party could win just one out of the five seats it contested although it fielded Muslim candidates in all 5 seats. Things might change now though.
However, an area of concern for the Nitish-Lalu front is the support of the Dalits who constitute about 15 per cent of the population in the state. For long Nitish had espoused their cause and nurtured this constituency carefully. One of the foremost among such attempts was the setting up of the Mahadalit Commission in 2007 to identify the most deprived among the dalits. His decision to elevate Manjhi – a Maha Dalit – to the CM’s position too was to woo the EBCs. However, Manjhi’s revolt has indeed upset some calculations.
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