What to Expect from BJP-PDP Government in Kashmir?

By Deepak Parvatiyar

February 25, 2015

On 24 February, after the Jammu and Kashmir People’s Democratic Party chief Mehbooba Mufti called on him in New Delhi for a 45-minute-long meeting, the Bharatiya Janata Party president Amit Shah announced that the two had agreed to form a coalition government in Srinagar.

Reports suggest that Mehbooba’s father and PDP patron Mufti Mohammad Sayeed is likely to swear in as the next chief minister of the state on 1 March. (Sayeed had earlier headed a coalition government with Congress for three years from 2002). With Shah’s announcement, the suspense following the two-month-old deadlock over government formation in the troubled northern-most state is over. The state has been placed under Governor’s rule since 8 January since no single party or group of political parties had come forward to stake claim to power after the fractured mandate for the 87-member state legislative assembly in December last year.

The PDP with 28 seats had emerged as the largest party in the last state election and was followed by the BJP, which had tasted its biggest victory in the state by winning 25 seats in Hindu dominated Jammu region. (A simple majority of 44 is needed to stake claim to power in the state).

A climb down on contentious issues

The coming together of two sides with diametrically opposite public posturing means a certain climb down by both the sides on certain contentious issues. Compare the J&K PDP’s poll plank of ‘greater autonomy’ and ‘supra-state measures’ as against the BJP’s known preference for abrogating the contentious Article 370 that provides special status to the state. As against the BJP’s hard stand against Pakistan, the J&K PDP’s manifesto had asserted ‘self-rule’ by “making borders (with Pak occupied Kashmir) irrelevant and creating complete connectivity”. Besides, the two parties also had diametrically opposite stands on revocation of controversial Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA), which gives immunity from prosecution to the armed forces, from the state.

Now, the basis of the new coalition government will be a set of common minimum programmes (CMP). Reports suggest it will be made public on 26 February. However, Sayeed did mention that differences with BJP over contentious issues like Article 370 and AFSPA “have been ironed out” in the Common Minimum Programme. This does indicate that the BJP has made a significant climb down on its position with regard to any dilution in the provisions of Article 370 in face of stiff opposition from the PDP. Besides, the two parties also seem to have reached some sort of agreement on the gradual replacement of the army with the local police and paramilitary forces in regions where conditions have improved.

With both joining hands to govern the state, does it imply that both have come to terms with the realities of governance or is it just the lust of power that has brought the parties that are poles apart in ideology, together?

Before we dwell more on the issue, it is pertinent to point out at Shah’s earlier statement that no party could form a government in the state “without the support of the BJP” in the 87-member House. On February 24, Sayeed endorsed this view saying that there was “no other option”.

Yet, the arithmetic in the J&K House (considering the Congress’s 12, the J&K National Conference’s 15 and Independents’ 3) suggests other possibilities too. What virtually lends the likely alliance an air of vulnerability (if any) is the claim by Sayeed that he had “offers of support from the National Conference as well as the Congress for government formation…”PDP’s public posturing for the alliance is reflected in what Sayeed said, “Governance is not our only aim. We have to also deliver on the peace agenda…I see this (PDP-BJP coalition) as a historic opportunity to end the decades of mistrust between Kashmir and Jammu regions of the state”.

Shah said that in the last two months both sides had held discussions “on a lot of issues… (And) reached some sort of consensus on a common minimum programme”. Mehbooba too assured the people that the alliance “has been done keeping the interests of the people of Jammu and Kashmir in mind”.

PDP’s Mufti Mohammad Sayeed not alien to BJP style of functioning

What is significant is that Sayeed, a former CM, is not alien to the BJP style of functioning. He was the Union Home Minister in the VP-Singh Led United Front government in 1989 to which the BJP had lent its outside support.

In fact, even before the assembly elections he had spilled enough beans for the BJP to pick up by suggesting the (former Prime Minister Atal Behari) Vajpayee formula for peace with Pakistan, and praising the latter for “pursuing peace even in the face of provocations”. Consider the statement that he made on 17 October 2014 – “No government can henceforth disregard peoples’ aspirations and still hope to be in political field…(and) The present government will have to revert to Vajpayee policy and engage both Pakistan and the separatist leadership to find a lasting solution to the problems of Jammu and Kashmir.”

Post J and K assembly elections too, the PDP did send enough feelers to the BJP of a possible coalition. On 31 December 2014, while meeting Governor NN Vohra, the PDP chief Mehbooba had for the first time sent a clear signal of a BJP- PDP alliance by telling the Governor that her party had the support of 55 legislators in the 87-seat assembly to form a stable government. After the meeting she had invoked Vajpayee and Prime Minister Narendra Modi and said that “Jammu and Kashmir has been the biggest challenge for any PM right from Nehru till date”.

To equate Modi with Vajpayee may appear baffling but Sayeed now argues that Modi’s actions in respect of “certain incidents in Kashmir have evoked hope”.

Still, given their fundamentally opposite stand and distinctly different vote bank, how theyaddress their respective constituencies and convince them of their governing agenda is to be seen. Mehbooba has sought to reassure the people that “Government formation is not about power, it is about winning the hearts of the people of Jammu and Kashmir.” Those were lofty words, but one thing is clear – the state needs peace, development and stability. If the two parties can provide that, other issues can be put in the backburner – till next elections!