BJP’s calculations in Bihar go awry

By Deepak Parvatiyar

February 23, 2015

It is a calculation that seems to have gone awry for the Bharatiya Janata Party in Bihar ostensibly on two counts:

If it had hoped to marginalize Nitish Kumar by engineering a vertical split in the ruling Janata Dal (United) in the state, its hopes are dashed
If it had hoped to corner the Mahadalit votes by backing the rebel (now deposed) chief minister Jitan Ram Manjhi, even the latter, despite being expelled from the JD(U) along with seven ministers of his government, remains non-committal over his support to the Lotus and even spilled beans over his “ghar wapasi” (returning to the JD-U fold).

More than Nitish, it is Manjhi who seems to have upset the BJP’s game plan with his deft political moves. That the latter chose to avoid the trust vote and instead resigned with dignity, it did dash the BJP’s hopes of gaining political mileage by:

a) Supporting him on the floor of the House (for which it had already issued a whip to its 87 legislators)
b) Pitting Manjhi – a Mahadalit – against Nitish in full view of the Bihar House

Inarguably the BJP was well aware of the fact that its support to Manjhi was never adequate to help him retain the CMship as they still fell short of the required numbers to form the government in the 283-member Bihar House (whose effective strength at present though is 273). Reports suggest that initially the party actually wanted to stay away from the power struggle within the JD(U). Yet, the temptation to step in was rather too strong to resist for the saffron brigade. Manjhi, after all had taken close to 40 pro-dalit cabinet decisions in his tenure and by espousing his cause, the BJP well hoped of making a dent into the dalit vote bank in the state before the state elections.

Consider how by just securing 38.8 per cent votes in the last general elections in Bihar, when it was riding the Modi wave, the BJP led National Democratic Alliance could still win 31 of the 40 Lok Sabha seats in the state. At that time the JD(U), Rashtriya Janata Dal and the Congress had collectively secured about 45 per cent of the vote despite winning just eight seats because they had fought the BJP as divided opposition.

Challenges are manifold for the BJP in the state of Bihar

The situation has changed now and the challenge is manifold for the BJP after the above three parties have joined hands and created a front. Hence Manjhi could have proved to be an important cog in the BJP’s scheme of things. After all, in the last general elections the Dalit-Other Backward Class (OBC) allies of the NDA – Ram Vilas Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party and Upendra Kushwaha’s Rashtriya Lok Samata Party – had contributed 9.4 per cent votes to its vote share in the state!

Another reason why Manjhi could prove a game changer for the BJP was the prospect of the growing chasm between the Other Backward Class (OBCs) and the Extremely Backward Class (EBCs) in the state. Already in the last Lok Sabha elections, Paswan and Kushwaha had well demonstrated this split by cornering 39 per cent of the Dalit-OBC votes as against the Rashtriya Janata Dal and JD(U)’s 34.9 per cent. This chasm was evident also because both Nitish as well as RJD’s Laloo Yadav are OBCs.

Ostensibly the BJP’s game plan thus revolved around capitalizing on Manjhi’s revolt against his mentor Nitish, to woo the Mahadalits – 21 of the 23 extremely backward castes, constituted in 2007 by Nitish when he was the CM. The reasons were obvious – the Mahadalits have a major say in 60 reserved seats of Bihar. They in fact had helped Nitish return to power in 2010.

With the plan going awry in face of an untrustworthy Manjhi (who in fact is a known defector who switched parties – from the Congress to the RJD to the JD(U), the BJP now struggles to duck shove the allegations by the incumbent chief minister Nitish Kumar that it was the architect of the political turmoil in the state that goes to the poll later this year.

In the process, while its caste-based politics stand exposed, the allegations made by Nitish of it indulging in horse-trading after the Governor refused to convene a special session of the House earlier, too does not augur well for the party.

Ostensibly the BJP has much to mull after having missed a win-win situation.