Is Delhi Headed for a Hung House Again?
January 27, 2015
Is Delhi heading for another hung Assembly again? The prospects of such a scenario loom large again, taking into account the nature of the contest and recent trends.
While a largely triangular contest between the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and the Congress leaves ample scope for a fractured verdict as was seen in the 2013 elections, what makes the contest keener is the fact that both the Congress and the AAP are fighting with backs against the wall. It is the question of their very political survival that makes them put everything behind the contest.
January 27, 2015
Is Delhi heading for another hung Assembly again? The prospects of such a scenario loom large again, taking into account the nature of the contest and recent trends.
While a largely triangular contest between the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and the Congress leaves ample scope for a fractured verdict as was seen in the 2013 elections, what makes the contest keener is the fact that both the Congress and the AAP are fighting with backs against the wall. It is the question of their very political survival that makes them put everything behind the contest.
AAP: Determined to Recover Lost Ground in Delhi
Consider the way the AAP’s fortunes plummeted after its spectacular show in 2013. It had won 28 of the 70 seats in its debut elections in Delhi then and was second to the BJP’s 31, while the ruling Congress was routed and could win only eight seats. However, the AAP’s aspirations of stopping the BJP’s juggernaut in last summer’s General Elections failed miserably and the party of political greenhorns could not win a single seat from Delhi and win just four Lok Sabha seats from Punjab.
The Party has adopted an aggressive posture and was well ahead of others in campaigning. Consider that after its disastrous debut in the Lok Sabha elections, the party had skipped the subsequent state elections in Haryana, Maharashtra, Jharkhand and Jammu and Kashmir to concentrate solely on Delhi.
Consider the way the AAP’s fortunes plummeted after its spectacular show in 2013. It had won 28 of the 70 seats in its debut elections in Delhi then and was second to the BJP’s 31, while the ruling Congress was routed and could win only eight seats. However, the AAP’s aspirations of stopping the BJP’s juggernaut in last summer’s General Elections failed miserably and the party of political greenhorns could not win a single seat from Delhi and win just four Lok Sabha seats from Punjab.
The Party has adopted an aggressive posture and was well ahead of others in campaigning. Consider that after its disastrous debut in the Lok Sabha elections, the party had skipped the subsequent state elections in Haryana, Maharashtra, Jharkhand and Jammu and Kashmir to concentrate solely on Delhi.
Congress: Survival at Stake
It goes without saying that the Congress’s fortunes have plunged in recent times. The party that ruled the country for a decade and the national capital for 15 long years, is nowhere in the scene at the moment. While it lost badly in the last Delhi elections as well as the following General Elections, its slide remains unabated in all subsequent elections in Haryana, Maharashtra, Jharkhand and Jammu and Kashmir. Facing obliteration, its last hope seems to be Delhi where, under a new leader, Ajay Maken, it looks forward to increasing it tally and salvage some honour.
It goes without saying that the Congress’s fortunes have plunged in recent times. The party that ruled the country for a decade and the national capital for 15 long years, is nowhere in the scene at the moment. While it lost badly in the last Delhi elections as well as the following General Elections, its slide remains unabated in all subsequent elections in Haryana, Maharashtra, Jharkhand and Jammu and Kashmir. Facing obliteration, its last hope seems to be Delhi where, under a new leader, Ajay Maken, it looks forward to increasing it tally and salvage some honour.
Parties Vying to Woo Dalits and Muslim Voters
The fulcrum of contest this time is the Dalit votes in Delhi and both the BJP as well as the AAP are making a dent into the 24 lakh strong vote bank that constitutes about 20 per cent of the total votes in the national capital. Besides the Muslim votes – that constitute about 12-14 per cent of the total votes – are likely to be shared by the AAP and the Congress – could be a deciding factor in about four to six constituencies and influence results in about six seven other constituencies.
Another aspect to be taken into consideration is the fact that there are 10 assembly constituencies where the BJP has never won, and have fielded comparatively weaker candidates in 19 seats namely Burari, Badli, Sultanpur Majra, Ballimaran, Seelampur, Rohtas Nagar, Mustafabad, Mangolpuri, Madipur, New Delhi, Kasturba Nagar, Ambedkar Nagar, Deoli, Matia Mahal, Okhla, Kondli, Gandhi Nagar and Seempuri, Gokalpur.
Many of these seats have large populations of Muslims or Dalits.
The fulcrum of contest this time is the Dalit votes in Delhi and both the BJP as well as the AAP are making a dent into the 24 lakh strong vote bank that constitutes about 20 per cent of the total votes in the national capital. Besides the Muslim votes – that constitute about 12-14 per cent of the total votes – are likely to be shared by the AAP and the Congress – could be a deciding factor in about four to six constituencies and influence results in about six seven other constituencies.
Another aspect to be taken into consideration is the fact that there are 10 assembly constituencies where the BJP has never won, and have fielded comparatively weaker candidates in 19 seats namely Burari, Badli, Sultanpur Majra, Ballimaran, Seelampur, Rohtas Nagar, Mustafabad, Mangolpuri, Madipur, New Delhi, Kasturba Nagar, Ambedkar Nagar, Deoli, Matia Mahal, Okhla, Kondli, Gandhi Nagar and Seempuri, Gokalpur.
Many of these seats have large populations of Muslims or Dalits.
2013 elections Saw First Ever Hung Assembly in Delhi
The largely triangular fight has changed the entire character of Delhi elections since 2013, considering that it had largely been a direct contest between the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata party in Delhi since 1993, when the national capital returned to the format of an elected government with legislative powers after a gap of over three decades. Never till 2013, had Delhi assembly seen a fractured verdict. In 1993, it was the BJP with a clear cut majority by winning 49 seats. In 1998, the Congress was firmly on saddle with 52 seats and the party returned to power in 2003 and 2008 by winning a convincing 47 and 43 seats respectively.
With the emergence of the AAP, things changed and 2013 elections saw the first ever hung assembly in Delhi.
The largely triangular fight has changed the entire character of Delhi elections since 2013, considering that it had largely been a direct contest between the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata party in Delhi since 1993, when the national capital returned to the format of an elected government with legislative powers after a gap of over three decades. Never till 2013, had Delhi assembly seen a fractured verdict. In 1993, it was the BJP with a clear cut majority by winning 49 seats. In 1998, the Congress was firmly on saddle with 52 seats and the party returned to power in 2003 and 2008 by winning a convincing 47 and 43 seats respectively.
With the emergence of the AAP, things changed and 2013 elections saw the first ever hung assembly in Delhi.
Triangular Contest again in Delhi
As Delhi witnesses yet another triangular contest in about a year’s time, prospects of hung assembly loom large again. So what does it imply?
Ironical it may sound but the pretence of ethical politics has bred political untouchability and fetched instable governments in recent times. The latest example is that of Jammu and Kashmir where even after almost a month of elections, there is no government in place not just because of the fractured verdict but also because of the uncompromising attitude of the political parties to forge an alliance by sacrificing their respective agenda.
As Delhi witnesses yet another triangular contest in about a year’s time, prospects of hung assembly loom large again. So what does it imply?
Ironical it may sound but the pretence of ethical politics has bred political untouchability and fetched instable governments in recent times. The latest example is that of Jammu and Kashmir where even after almost a month of elections, there is no government in place not just because of the fractured verdict but also because of the uncompromising attitude of the political parties to forge an alliance by sacrificing their respective agenda.
Ironical it may sound but the pretence of ethical politics has bred political untouchability and fetched instable governments in recent times. The latest example is that of Jammu and Kashmir where even after almost a month of elections, there is no government in place not just because of the fractured verdict but also because of the uncompromising attitude of the political parties to forge an alliance by sacrificing their respective agenda.
Will Uncompromising Ideological Stances Make Post-Poll Alliances Difficult?
The AAP, despite displaying its opportunistic steak by forming the government with the unconditional and outside support of the Congress in Delhi last time, has contributed to the newly discovered rigidness in fomenting post-poll alliances.
Consider how the AAP brand of politics prevented the largest party in the last Delhi House, the BJP from mustering up support to form the government in Delhi when it required just three supporters to reach the majority mark in the state Assembly!
Post-poll alliance is a regular practice since the era of coalition governments. By forming its government in Delhi last time, even the AAP tacitly endorsed such a practice. However, the problem lies in the AAP’s refusal to acknowledge its complicity – at least publicly.
So, can a hung assembly prospect again fail to get Delhi a government this time? This is, indeed, a time for introspection.
The AAP, despite displaying its opportunistic steak by forming the government with the unconditional and outside support of the Congress in Delhi last time, has contributed to the newly discovered rigidness in fomenting post-poll alliances.
Consider how the AAP brand of politics prevented the largest party in the last Delhi House, the BJP from mustering up support to form the government in Delhi when it required just three supporters to reach the majority mark in the state Assembly!
Post-poll alliance is a regular practice since the era of coalition governments. By forming its government in Delhi last time, even the AAP tacitly endorsed such a practice. However, the problem lies in the AAP’s refusal to acknowledge its complicity – at least publicly.
So, can a hung assembly prospect again fail to get Delhi a government this time? This is, indeed, a time for introspection.
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