Delhi Elections 2015 : Five Stumbling Blocks for BJP

By Deepak Parvatiyar

January 19, 2015

At the onset, odds still favour the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to emerge stronger than other parties in the Delhi elections. Various election surveys point to this possibility. There are ample reasons to believe them considering the BJP had emerged as the largest party in the state Assembly by winning 31 of the 70 seats in the last elections too. Besides, the Lotus had a clean sweep in last summer general elections too as it won all seven Lok Sabha seats from Delhi. But the biggest question remains: Will the BJP get the required numbers to form the government this time?

We analyse the five biggest hurdles that the BJP would require to overcome if it hopes to rule Delhi after a gap of 16 long years.

1. Alone at the top

The simple fact that the BJP could not form its government in Delhi in 2013 was that no other party besides its pre-poll alliance partner Shiromani Akali Dal (which won just one seat) supported it in the House. Earlier there used to be a direct contest between the Congress and the BJP. However, the pattern changed in 2013 with the rise of the AAP that made the contest triangular resulting in a fractured verdict with none of the three parties getting clear majority. It became evident last time that in case of a hung assembly, the AAP and the Congress were the natural allies to keep the BJP at bay. Though the AAP-Congress alliance could not last even 50 days, it has provided enough indication that the BJP needs to get the majority on its own if it wants to rule Delhi in 2015.

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2. The groupings in the party

If media reports are to be believed, then the induction of former Indian Police Service Officer Kiran Bedi – a protégé of anti-graft crusader Anna Hazare in the party at the very last moment, has made many old stalwarts of Delhi BJPuncomfortable. Many of these leaders did nurture chief ministerial ambitions and were kept silent in the wake of the party’s decision to enter the fray without projecting any CM face. However, the highly publicised and high profile entry of Bedi has changed it all and the rumblings are more pronounced. Though the party hasn’t yet named Bedi as its CM face, she indeed has been given priority over the old hands as evident from her lead in holding meetings with the party workers. Reports suggest that such a move of the party leadership has surely created a confusion within the party ranks before the elections.

3. Less than expected crowd at Narendra Modi’s election rally at Ramlila Maidan

If election rallies are taken as indication then Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s rally to kick start the poll campaign in Delhi was a disappointment for the BJP. A crowd of just over 40,000 on a Sunday afternoon is a cause of worry as it does not do justice to Modi’s crowd pulling abilities. Consider that his earlier rallies in the city during the Lok Sabha elections had drawn much larger crowd. Does it mean that the Modi magic – that catapulted the BJP to the seat of power in Haryana, Jharkhand, Maharashtra and made it emerge as the second largest party in Jammu and Kashmir – is waning in his own backyard? Obviously, this is one question that the BJP needs to address quickly before the elections.

4. Delay in Candidates’ list

There has been a general concern within the BJP ranks over the party leadership’s delay in the announcement of the party candidates. With elections just three weeks away, the party was yet to take a final call on its candidates. This delay in announcing the names means that the aspirants are unsure of spending money and are still waiting. Obviously, the candidates will now get less time for campaigning as compared to the AAP, which had declared the names of all its candidates much earlier, and the Congress as well which too declared names of most of its candidates much before the BJP.

5. Close Contest for Delhi Assembly Elections

Delhi polls are a battle for political survival for the AAP after its dismal performance in the Lok Sabha elections, and the Congress will be looking to improve its tally from the eight that it could win last time. A cause of concern for the BJP is that its internal surveys indicate the AAP leader Arvind Kejriwal to be the first choice for the CM’s post in the national capital. Can the entry of Bedi change the equation? Yet, the fact remains that at least in dozen seats the contest is going to be very tight considering that the margin of victory was less than 2000 votes in these seats last time. Besides, Kejriwal seems to have an edge in the slums and backward localities where the AAP presence is quite significant. In Delhi, 12 seats are reserved for the scheduled castes while Dalits and Muslims influence about 18 seats. Muslims directly influence at least three seats in the state capital.

Given such situation, it will not be easy for the BJP to repeat is Lok Sabha performance in the Delhi Assembly elections.