Battleground Delhi : Key Election Strategies

By Deepak Parvatiyar

January 15, 2015

Price rise, safety of women, corruption and development are the four issues that figure in the agenda of all political parties for the February 7 Delhi Assembly elections.

Yet, they don’t remain as contentious as they were in the 2013 Delhi elections. Consider the fact that even the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), which rose to power in the last Assembly elections on anti-corruption plank, is not playing it up like it had done last time.

AAP is Anxious on Proving its Governance Credentials

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• Delhi Assembly Election Issues

The biggest issue before AAP this time, after its decision to quit within 49 days invited all-round criticism, is to convince the electorates that it could provide a stable government for the next five years if it is voted to power.

For its rivals though, the AAP factor remains crucial given the unexpected rise of the party in Delhi in the last Assembly elections. It is ostensible that this time the rival political parties are spending more time evolving effective strategies to tackle the AAP factor. It has emerged as a major agenda on their platter to prevent the political greenhorns from repeating their 2013 performance again.

BJP Seeks to Gain by Branding AAP as Anarchist

Consider that none other than Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who kicked off the Bharatiya Janata Party’s poll campaign from Ramlila Ground on January 10, launched a frontal attack on the AAP, and without naming it, called it a party of ‘anarchists’ who were better suited for staging demonstrations on streets than governing Delhi.

Modi’s remarks are a clear indication of his acknowledgment of the AAP as a formidable opponent to the BJP in the ensuing Delhi elections, and a bigger threat to the saffron brigade than the Congress.

Reacting to such remarks by the PM, the AAP supremo Arvind Kejriwal hit back saying the BJP had no ‘positive agenda’ for the elections and was “trying to divert the public’s attention”.

AAP: Setting the Agenda for other Parties

Led by a maverick, AAP is setting the agenda for other political parties in Delhi elections this time, at least at the political level.

Consider how its high decibel campaigning against high power tariff in Delhi forced Modi to address the issue in his Ramlila Maidan rally! As against the AAP’s promise to reduce the power tariff by half, Modi was forced to make a promise of introducing a multi-vendor system to increase competition in the power distribution segment that would check the prices!

Clearly, tackling the non-conformist methods of Kejriwal and the unpredictability of elections is a serious issue for the rival political parties, more particularly the BJP at a time when the fortunes of the Congress hit an all time low, and despite the alliance, the Samajwadi Party (SP), Janata Dal (Secular), Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), Janata Dal (United) and Indian National Lok Dal, remain marginal players in Delhi.
The reasons for the AAP setting the political agenda for other parties, therefore, are seemingly clear :

a) Even at mobilising masses at the booth level, so crucial for winning elections, the AAP has matched the BJP in both skills and networking as was reflected both in Delhi last Assembly elections and in Varanasi where Kejriwal came a credible second in the General Elections despite losing to Modi.
b) With a clear focus on Delhi elections, for which it skipped other state elections after its disappointed performance in the last general elections, the AAP is way ahead of other parties in terms of visible campaigning. Unlike other parties, it has already announced the names of its contesting candidates for all the 70 seats, thus allowing them ample time for campaigning.
c) The AAP brand of politics discouraged the BJP from using dubious means such as horse-trading, to form government in Delhi. The AAP, despite drawing blank in Delhi in the last Lok Sabha elections, and despite facing desertions by many of its leaders, managed to hold firm – a fact that makes it a tough player in the political arena.
d) Its hold on the 24 lakh Dalit voters, who comprise 20 per cent of total votes in Delhi, and the perception that even the Muslims might support it in view of a weak Congress, makes the AAP an even more formidable rival for the BJP.

BJP Leaving nothing to Change in its Quest for Power in Delhi

Little surprise, therefore, that after a dream spell of almost a year across the country, the BJP appears to have hit a roadblock in Delhi. Though still a favourite, the party is taking no chances against the AAP and it is in this light that the polarisation of votes being tried by the right wing forces in Delhi – something that was missing in the 2013 election – should be viewed.

Hate speech by a Union minister in a Delhi rally, religious conversion issue termed as ‘Ghar Wapsi (homecoming)”, the Hindu-Muslim communal flare-ups in Trilokpuri (a resettlement colony with considerable Dalit population), and Bawana localities, and attacks on Churches at different localities (four such attacks were reported between December-January), are definite attempts to polarise the voters along communal lines before the Assembly elections. Besides, in a clear attempt to woo the Dalits, the BJP plans to organise a ‘Dalit Sammelan’ at Delhi’s Talkatora stadium to felicitate prominent Dalits.

But can the communal agenda score over the development agenda in Delhi? Or will it be a lethal mix of communal and developmental politics? In any case, these agendas are set to determine the winners of the Delhi elections on February 10.