Religious Conversion: Will it disrupt or rebuild BJP’s plan for upcoming Delhi Polls ?

By Deepak Parvatiyar

December 27, 2014

The religious conversion issue is being interpreted by some political commentators as the Bharatiya Janata Party’s well thought out plan for electoral gains in the upcoming Delhi elections. Given the fact that Muslims dominate in only about 13 of the 70 constituencies of the city state, these constituencies would have little impact on the BJP’s fortunes.

BJP: Aiming at Consolidation of Hindu Votes

The Muslim electorates – the traditional Congress supporters — are being wooed by the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP). The likely entry of the Hyderabad-based All India Majlis-e- Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) in the fray in Delhi could further split the Muslim votes in the city state. AIMIM created an impact in the recent Maharashtra assembly elections by finishing second on three seats and cornering 0.9 per cent of the total votes. Ostensibly the BJP sees a consolidation of Hindu votes, under the circumstances, as a better option than to attempt a dent into the Muslim votes.

It is in this light that the reconversion moves by the Sangh Parivar’s fringe players such as the Bajrang Dal or ‘hate’ speech by Union minister Sadhvi  Niranjan Jyoti may be interpreted.

Hence with four of its eight legislators being Muslims, it would rather be the Congress party than the BJP that should sound more worried over the split in the Muslim votes and a consolidation of the Hindu votes.

Muslims make up 12-14 percent of Delhi’s 16-18 million population. The state has 13 Assembly constituencies where the Muslim population is 30 per cent or more. Of these constituencies, Congress had won from Ballimaran, Chandni Chowk, Mustafabad, Okhla, and Gandhinagar while the AAP had won from Sadar Bazar, Seemapuri, Vikaspuri and Trilokpuri (where communal tension had flared up recently) while the Janata Dal (United) had won from Matia Mahal. Yet, the BJP had won from Babarpur and Kiradi in 2013. Besides, in the last general elections, in Okhla segment its vote share had considerably increased.

BJP had Attempted to Woo Muslim Voters in J&K

There had been certain encouraging signals of the Muslims favouring the BJP, till the reconversion issue in Agra hogged national limelight and stalled parliament proceedings. Consider that the Lotus had indeed sought to woo the Muslim voters in J&K before the state elections there, and Delhi as well — At least 24 BJP contestants in the fray in J&K were Muslims as a testimony to the BJP’s eagerness to make a dent into the Muslim vote bank. Similarly in Delhi, the party had launched a membership drive and planned to organise special programmes to woo the Muslims by “educating” them about Prime Minister Modi’s “vision” of development.

Then what forced the BJP get back into its shell and return to its comfort zone bordering aggressive Hindutva?

The other fringe players of the Sangh Parivar, more often than not, dictate their terms with the BJP.

Aggressive Hindutva has been Core to the BJP’s Agenda

Historically, the BJP very much owes its very existence to the Hindu hardline politics of polarisation. The Ram Janmabhoomi movement and LK Advani’s Rath Yatra in 1989 had ubiquitously helped it recover after the 1984 general elections when it could win only two seats while pursuing a moderate approach to Hindutva under its founder, Atal Bihari Vajpayee.

Ever since, aggressive Hindutva has been core to the party’s agenda — whether a (still unfulfilled promise) of constructing the Ram temple in Ayodhya; or a Common Civil Code for all citizens; or rhetoric to arouse communal passions.

It goes without saying that the BJP has reaped rich dividends of polarisation of Hindu votes through its pursuit of aggressive Hindutva.  The biggest achievement of the party in the process has been its success in bridging the caste divide to achieve the desired consolidation of Hindu votes.

It has been a tried and tested formula for the BJP’s success. Even before the 2014 general elections, when Narendra Modi’s development agenda was the buzzword, the Muzaffarnagar riots, in one single stroke, had ripped apart the Jat-Muslim unity forged by Chaudhary Charan Singh in western UP! Consider that the then BJP in-charge of UP, (present BJP president) Amit Shah, was chargesheeted by the Muzaffarnagar police for “hate speech”!

The religious conversion issue polarises the society and does suit the Hindu hardliners’  scheme of things since consolidated Hindu votes have always proved to be an effective deterrent to the Muslim-centric ‘vote bank’ politics of the ‘secular’ political parties.

The BJP ostensibly looks forward to gain more than what is loses at the hustings with this core agenda. The forthcoming Delhi Assembly polls will be a test case.