Jammu & Kashmir Elections: Chief Minister Contenders
December 1, 2014
Ever since the elections were restored in Jammu and Kashmir in 1996 after almost a decade of insurgency that stalled the poll process, the state’s first political family, the Abdullahs, dominated the political scene as they had earlier. Of the four Chief Ministers that the state had since 1996, two were Abdullahs – the father-son duo of Farooq and Omar. Both had completed their respective terms in power while the other two CMs – Mufti Mohammad Saeed and Ghulam Nabi Azad – shared the power by rotation in the same House. This was because of a pact between their respective political parties – the Jammu & Kashmir People’s Democratic Party and the Congress – in the wake of a fractured verdict in 2002.
Omar Abdullah: Facing Tough Times
Omar, the present CM, is again in contention for the position in case his party, the National Conference, returns to power. In 2009, when he was just 32 years of age, he had become the 11thand the youngest CM of the state with the support of the Congress. He continued in the Office for the full term with the Congress’ support but things have changed for him in the election year. He faces anti-incumbency and seems to have lost considerable ground in the Valley after the devastating floods in September. The Congress too has severed its ties with the National Conference and both the parties are contesting the elections as bitter rivals.
It is interesting that this has been after three generations and 39 years, that the Abdullahs are not contesting from the family pocket borough, Ganderbal, after Omar opted to contest this time from a traditionally J&K PDP stronghold, Beerwah (from where Muhammad Shafi Wani of the J&K PDP had won last time), as well as from Sonawar (presently represented by Muhammad Yasin Shah of the NC).
While sitting MLA Wani remains the J&K PDP’s choice against Omar, the BJP has fielded a relatively unknown Abdul Rasheed Bandey from Beerwah.
Significantly Sonawar is home to Omar and the J&K PDP’s CM face, Mufti Mohammad Syed, as well. In the 2008 Assembly election, Omar’s father and NC president Farooq Abdullah had won against his nearest PDP rival Ghulam Qadir Paradesi from Sonawar by just 94 votes. Omar is pitted here against J&K PDP’s Mohammad Ashraf Mir. Both the BJP as well as the Congress have fielded women candidates against Omar at Sonawar. The Congress candidate is Khem Lata Wakhloo – the chairperson of Jammu Kashmir Social Welfare Advisory Board, who was last year accorded the status of a Cabinet Minister.
However, the BJP’s choice for Darkhshan Andrabi over a ‘stronger candidate’ Dr Hina Bhat – the daughter of former NC leader Muhammad Shafi Bhat – has raised speculations over a likely BJP-NC alliance in case of a hung assembly.
Andrabi, who was in limelight for celebrating Valentine’s Day as a day of love on the border with Pakistan, is a poet by choice. She was chairperson of Social Democratic Party (SDP) which she recently merged with the BJP.
Dr Nirmal Singh: BJP’s CM Probable
The BJP, like in Jharkhand, Haryana and Maharashtra, has refrained from projecting any CM face in J&K. While initially the party had strongly pitched for a Hindu CM, later reports suggested the party was not averse to a Muslim CM either.
In case the BJP succeeds in its Mission +44 in the state and opts for a Hindu CM, in that case the name of the national executive member and former state president of BJP, may emerge as a strong contender for the post. He is contesting this time from Billawar constituency. His name has been doing rounds for quite some time now. Yet, Dr Nirmal Singh had lost the previous assembly elections in 2004, 2009, and 2010 and had lost the race for the party ticket from Udhampur-Doda in the last parliamentary election to the eventual winner Dr Jitendra Singh in 2014.
Sajjad Lone: Another CM Contender
Speculations are also rife over whether the BJP would support former separatist leader and People’s Conference (PC) chairman Sajjad Lone for the coveted post of the CM in case of a fractured verdict. Lone’s meeting with Prime Minister Narendra Modi in New Delhi and his subsequent praise of Modi has raised enough eyebrows in the political circles and triggered speculations that his party might join hands with the BJP after elections. Lone is contesting from Hadwara this time. His party has so far fielded 18 candidates in the valley and fancying its prospects in at least four assembly segments. In the 2014 parliamentary elections, the PC proved it is no pushover as its candidate Salamuddin Bajad, despite coming third, bagged 71,154 votes – which was a healthy 15 percent vote share. In 2009, Sajjad had contested from the Baramulla parliamentary seat and bagged 65,403 votes, though he lost.
Ghulam Nabi Azad: CM Face from the Congress
It may be mentioned that since 1996, the same CM has never returned to power for two consecutive terms. However, the Congress has remained in the government by entering into an alliance with the regional rivals – the J&K PDP and the NC. However, the only Congress CM during this period, Azad, lost the last parliamentary elections from Udhampur. He is not contesting this time but as the chairman of the party’s campaign committee for Assembly polls, he still remains a strong contender for the CM’s post in case the party does well in the state elections.
Mufti Mohammad Saeed: PDP’s Strong CM Contender
Last but not the least, the J&K PDP patron, Mufti, has emerged as a strong CM contender in face of the anti-incumbency factor against the NC. He was the CM between 2002 and 2005 before he stepped down in favour of the coalition partner, the Congress, as part of a pact. This time he is seeking re-election from Anantnag from where last time he had emerged victorious by securing 12439 votes as against his nearest rival, Mirza Mehbood Beigh of the National Conference who had got 7548 votes.
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