J&K Assembly Elections: Vote for Peace
December 16, 2014
Polling in the four out of five-phase Jammu and Kashmir Assembly elections has been remarkable for the high turnout of voters. Each of the four phases has registered more percentage polling than previous years.
The first phase saw 71.28 per cent polling in J&K – an increase of seven and 18 percentage points respectively from the last Assembly and Lok Sabha elections in the same segment. The second phase again saw 71 per cent voting – higher than the 61.04 per cent polling during the 2014 Lok Sabha polls and 68.79 per cent recorded during the 2008 Assembly elections in the same segment. The 58 per cent voters’ turnout in the third phase too was a considerable improvement from the 48.69 per cent turnout in the same segment in 2008. This despite the poll-eve deadly terror attacks by Pakistani infiltrators in the state!
The lowest turnout thus far has been in the fourth phase of polling on Sunday December 14. However, even the perceptibly low 49 per cent voter’s turnout then has been marginally higher than the last Assembly election figures for the same segment that stood at 45.7 per cent in 2008.
Voters in J&K Fight Against All Odds
It is remarkable that unlike in the past, the voters have braved the lurking terror threat, separatists’ boycott calls as well as bone-chilling winter cold to turn out in large numbers to vote, this time. Even a strike call by the separatists in Srinagar during the fourth phase failed to evoke the desired response from the voters. The 28 per cent voting in Srinagar district in the fourth phase was the highest in the last 30 years. In 2008, it was just 20 per cent but it did increase to 26 per cent in the last Lok Sabha elections.
Consider these facts:
• In militancy-infested Reasi and Poonch, voting of 80 (73.7 percent in 2008) and 78 (75.33 percent in 2008) percent was registered. It is up from the turnout of 73.7 per cent in Reasi and 75.33 per cent in Poonch in 2008.
• In all, 52.60 per cent voters turned out in the terror-hit Shopian and this was only marginally less than the 53 per cent turnout figure of 2008
• Terror attacks on an army camp in which 17 persons including six terrorists were killed a few hours before the polls failed to deter the voters in Uri that registered 79 percent polling which was only about 2.73 per cent less than the turnout in 2008
Separatists are Getting Marginalised in the Valley
Voters have preferred the electoral process even in the separatists’ considered strongholds such as Sopore in Baramulla district – the home of hardline separatist leader and Hurriyat Conference Chairman Syed Ali Shah Geelani. The constituency saw the lowest in the Valley with 30 per cent turnout in the third phase (that was held soon after deadly terror attacks in the state).Yet that was a remarkable 10.5 per cent improvement than the last elections in the constituency!
At least three things are quite clear here:
• The people in J&K want peace and consider the electoral process to be a tool to achieve the desired change
• The people are defiant of Pak-sponsored terror attacks
• Separatist forces such as the Hurriyat Conference are getting more and more marginalised in the Valley
Yet, many analysts attribute the larger participation of the Muslim voters in the Valley to the move to thwart the bid of the Bharatiya Janata Party to win on the strength of postal ballots from migrant Kashmiri Pandits. Yet, such a theory has its limitations considering that even in the 2008 election, a large number of people had preferred ballots over bullets and their numbers have constantly been on a rise ever since. Besides, the public admiration of PM Modi by former separatist leader and People’s Conference Chairman Sajjad Lone as well as the BJP’s decision to field an unprecedented 24 Muslim candidates amply suggest that the party is no more considered as ‘untouchable’ by the Muslims in the Valley.
The BJP has Made Development its Main Poll Plank
The BJP has been a big factor this time given its 44+ winning agenda and the aggressive campaign led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi himself in the state.
It is imperative to note that the BJP has been a strong proponent of the abrogation of Article 370, which grants a special status to J&K. The issue has prominently figured in its poll manifestos during General Elections. However, the party did not even mention it in its vision document for the state. Instead, it stressed on development and the dignified return of Pandits to the Valley and preferred to introduce its ‘TIME’ model—an acronym of the party’s thrust on development of tourism, infrastructure, modernisation and empowerment.
In 2008 elections, the Lotus had dropped the contentious issue of abrogation of Article 370 from its state’s poll manifesto. It had won 11 seats – its highest ever in J&K – then.
Return of Peace: A Rallying Point in J&K
The ruling National Conference – considered fighting a losing battle in face of strong anti-incumbency – has asserted in its manifesto that Article 370 could not be abrogated under any circumstances. The J&K People’s Democratic Party promises to “use Article 370 to restore original special status…” While the NC manifesto emphasises on “autonomy”, the J&K PDP’s manifesto asserts ‘self rule’ by “making borders (with Pak-occupied Kashmir) irrelevant and creating complete connectivity”.
The Congress – whose role is again perceived to be crucial in case of a fractured mandate – too talks of decentralisation, and other Confidence Building Measures.
The large turnout this time does suggest that the voters are more concerned about return of peace and want development of the region. In nutshell, they want ‘change’.
It is high time that their wish is honoured by the next government in the state. After all, the most important issue in J&K is the restoration of faith in the democratic norms. Isn’t it so?
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