J&K and Jharkhand Election Results: Heed the Voters’ Message
December 24, 2014
The Bharatiya Janata Party juggernaut continues to roll. In Jharkhand and Jammu and Kashmir, the party has created history by notching up its best performances ever in the state Assembly elections.
Though the BJP failed to live up to its own estimates of 44+ seats in J&K and 50+ seats in Jharkhand, still it got the largest 23 per cent vote share in J&K ahead of the pre-poll favourites, the J&K People’s Democratic Party (22.7 per cent), the ruling National Conference (20.8 per cent) and the Congress (18 per cent).
BJP Registered Credible Wins in J&K and Jharkhand
The BJP’s unprecedented victory in 25 seats – a remarkable gain of 14 seats from its best ever tally of 11 in 2008 – was just three seats behind the J&K PDP in the 87-member state Assembly.
In Jharkhand, after winning 37 seats – an improvement of 18 seats since 2009, the BJP will form its government with the five members of its pre-poll alliance partner, the All Jharkhand Students’ Union (AJSU).
The victories for the BJP confirm the relevance of the NaMo factor in India politics once again. But they are also indicative of the sharp polarisation of votes in Jammu & Kashmir, where it drew a blank in the Valley (46 seats) and Ladakh as well (4 seats.
But BJP Failed to Make Inroads in the Valley
The fact that all but one of the 34 BJP candidate lost their deposits in the Valley could well have wider ramifications against the backdrop of the fact that the BJP had fielded 24 Muslim candidates in the state – an indication that Muslims were not averse to joining the Hindu right wing BJP and did not anymore consider it as ‘untouchable’. With a prominent separatist leader Sajjad Lone, who won from Handwara, too showing a soft corner for Prime Minister Narendra Modi, it did appear initially as if the Muslims were getting closer to the BJP fold.
It is, therefore, anybody’s guess whether the religious conversion issue raked up by Sangh Parivar’s fringe players, , had a negative impact on the BJP’s progress in J&K. After all, the Lotus did lose in a considerable number of assembly segments in J&K where it had done well in the last Lok Sabha elections, just six months back.
The fractured verdict in J&K was along the predicted lines. Yet, the National Conference, with 15 seats, managed to fare much better than what the Exit polls had predicted for them. Similarly, the J&K PDP could feel disappointed as it did expect more at the expense of the NC as well as the Congress. Still the PDP gained seven seats from the last assembly elections in 2008, while the NC and the Congress lost 13 and 5 seats respectively.
Congress: the Biggest Loser in the recent Assembly Elections
The Congress’s downslide continues and it was a clear loser in both J&K and Jharkhand. It lost more than what it could win in both the states where it stood a distant fourth – behind the PDP, BJP and the NC in J&K; and behind the BJP, Jharkhand Mukti Morcha and Jharkhand Vikas Morcha in Jharkhand. It could win only 12 seats in J&K that was five less than what it had won in 2008. Similarly in Jharkhand, it won six seats, 15 less than its 2009 figure.
With the Congress fortunes on a decline and the party being decimated in all recent state elections in Haryana, Maharashtra, Jharkhand and J&K after its loss in the general elections, a question that merits consideration is whether the verdict is a signal that the fight in the future elections will be between the BJP and regional parties?
Yet, even the graph of the regional parties showed a downward curve in at least three of these states with the exception of Maharashtra. In J&K, barring the J&K PDP, none of the regional parties could repeat its 2008 performance. Similarly in Jharkhand, only the JMM and AJSU could retain the figures of 18 and five that they had respectively achieved in 2009.
Warning Bells for Political Heavyweights in J&K and Jharkhand
It is interesting to note the defeats of three former CMs in Jharkhand. Former CMs Madhu Koda (Jai Bharat Samanta Party), Arjun Munda (BJP)and Babulal Marandi (JVM)lost their seats while sitting CM Hemant Soren could win only from Barhait, one of the two seats from where he had contested and lost Dumka from where he was the sitting MLA. Even outgoing J&K CM Omar Abdullah, like Soren, lost from Sonawar seat but managed to win narrowly from another constituency, Beerwah with a slender margin of 1,000 votes.
The other talking points have been the defeats of former Jharkhand deputy chief minister and AJSU party chief Sudesh Kumar Mahto in Silli in Jharkhand, and the J&K deputy Chief Minister and three time MLA of Congress Tara Chand in Chhamb Assembly constituency of Jammu district. Do such defeats ring a warning bell for political heavyweights in future?
While the verdict is clearly in favour of the BJP in Jharkhand, the fractured mandate in Kashmir keeps the politics of coalition era alive and kicking. The BJP is open to all possibilities but eyes are now set on the largest party, the J&K PDP. The party has thus far adopted a wait and watch policy while the BJP and the Congress have sounded that they are not averse of supporting the PDP. Yet, given the sharp ideological differences between the BJP and others, as reflected in their respective poll manifesto, it is to be seen as to who will make the first climbdown. After all, isn’t coalition politics all about mutual give and take? Ideology does take the back seat in such a case!
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