J&K and Jharkhand 5th Phase Polling Stats

By Deepak Parvatiyar

December 22, 2014

The polling in Jammu and Kashmir and Jharkhand ended with a record turnout of voters yet again in the fifth phase on December 20. It is set to rewrite the political destiny of both the troubled states.

Political fortunes of 213 candidates, including deputy chief minister and four ministers, are now sealed in the ballot boxes in J&K. In Jharkhand, the fate of 208 candidates including CM Hemant Soren will be decided on December 23, the day of counting of votes.

Record – High Voter Turnout in J&K in 5th Phase Elections

The unprecedented turnout of voters who braved winter chill and terror strikes particularly in J&K, not just reiterates the people’s commitment to the democratic process but should be seen as their soaring aspirations from the politicians to deliver on their poll promises.

It is significant that each of the five phases of polling created new records in both the states. A high turnout of 76per cent voters in 20 constituencies in the final phase in J&K though, is not just the highest among rest of the phases, but the highest ever in these constituencies – a marked  3 per cent improvement from the 2008 state elections.

The overall figure of 65 per cent voters’ turnout in the 87  Assembly segments too is the highest in J&K in the last twenty five years – a clinching evidence of the people’s growing faith in the electoral process for the restoration of peace after years of turmoil. Just compare the figure with the 43.09 per cent turnout of voters in the state in 2002 Assembly elections! However, ever since Kashmiris have been more active in participating in the poll process and the previous Assembly elections of 2008 did witness 61.42 per cent polling in the state.

Undoubtedly this growing number of voters has also been a big slap on the face of the Pakistan-supported secessionist forces, whose poll boycott calls are proving ineffectual in recent times. The icing on the cake this elections has been the fact that rural Kashmir had better voter turnout percentage than the urban centres this election.

Jharkhand too Keenly Participated in the Poll Process

Jharkhand too has seen the all- time highest polling this time. Over 60 per cent polling was constantly registered in all the previous four phases in the state and the trend continued in the fifth phase that recorded 70.42 per cent polling – higher than the earlier four phases – and over 13 per cent higher than turnout in the same Assembly elections in 2009.

The overall 65.99 percent turnout for the 81 Assembly seats – an increase of nine per cent from the previous 2009 state elections – in spite of the Maoists’ threats is a tribute to the efforts of the Election Commission to encourage more voters to come to the polling booth, and the security forces as well.

The outcome of final phase of voting in Jharkhand and Jammu and Kashmir would be crucial in many ways for the major political players in the respective states.

Significance of the Fifth Phase of Assembly Poll in J&K and Jharkhand

In J&K the fifth phase holds the key to the Bharatiya Janata Party’s prospects of forming its first ever government in the state as the party banks on these 20 seats – 18 of which have  Hindu majority – for a surge in their political fortunes in the state. In 2008, the party had won 10 seats out of these constituencies. However to achieve its 44+ target this elections, it will first be required to wrest five seats from the Congress, two seats from the National Conference and one seat from the Jammu and Kashmir People’s Democratic Party, here. Besides, a couple of Independents too had won from here in the 2008 elections.

The BJP though may be banking on the fact that in the last General Elections, the Congress had drawn a blank from the Parliamentary Constituencies comprising these Assembly segments. However, the contest is seemingly tough considering the fact that Chhamb, Akhnoor and Gandhi Nagar Assembly segments are traditional Congress strongholds. While Deputy Chief Minister Tara Chand of the Congress who is seeking re-election from the Chhamb seat for the fourth time after having won it in 1996, 2002 and 2008, state ministers Sham Lal Sharma and Raman Bhalla (both Congress) are looking ahead to scoring a hat-trick of wins from Akhnoor and Gandhinagar, respectively. Yet another state minister Manohar Lal Sharma (Congress) is engaged in a direct fight with the BJP at Billawar constituency. Another sitting minister Ajay Sadhotra (National Conference) too poses a stiff challenge to the BJP in Marh Assembly segment.

The contest for the 20 seats in the fifth round is also an acid test for the PDP which has fielded six sitting MLAs from these segments. It is interesting that given the Hindu dominance in the region, the PDP patron Mufti Mohammad Sayeed went soft on his party’s “self rule” agenda and instead stressed on “peace” along the international border that falls in the region. Thousands living near the border were forced to flee their homes recently because of the violation of ceasefire by the Pakistani troops and the retaliatory firing by the Indian security forces for almost a month in the Arnia sector.

The fifth phase of polling was also crucial for the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha in its considered strongholds – the six Santhal Pargana districts in Jharkhand where it had won nine of the 16 seats  and came second in three seats in the 2009 state elections.

The fortunes of Jharkhand Chief Minister and JMM leader Hemant Soren, a sitting legislator from Dumka who is contesting from Dumka as well as Barhait, and Assembly Speaker Shashank Sekhar Bhokta (JMM) from Sarath were sealed in the ballot box in the fifth phase.

While all eyes are now on the results on December 23, the high voter turnout in the two most troubled states of the country is, indeed, the major takeaway of the elections. The voters have done their duty. It is now the turn of the political parties to steer J&K and Jharkhand in the right direction.