Delhi Polls – Tough Battle for BJP
December 29, 2014
After impacting the elections elsewhere, can the NaMo chant cast its spell on the Delhi voters?
Prime Minister Narendra Modi, like elsewhere, is set to be the star campaigner for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the ensuing elections for the Delhi Assembly. However, the challenge for his party looks more formidable in the national capital in the wake of an aggressive campaign by the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP).
Delhi Polls: AAP’s Survival at Stake
For once, the AAP has gone lock stock and barrel to perform well at the Delhi elections as it is a matter of its very survival in politics. From fund raising spree through dinners and tea, to publicity blitzkrieg, the AAP has left no stone unturned in a bid to keep itself afloat, politically.
Consider that the AAP is marginally behind the BJP in terms of putting up political advertisements inside Delhi’s metro. It has thus far put up 1,000 panels as against the BJP’s 1,850 panels in the allotted 20 metro trains each on the two busiest sections of the metro that has an estimated daily ridership of almost 27 lakh! The Congress is not in the picture at all as of now. Similarly, the AAP billboards have been put up at busy junctions and even on social media it has made an attempt to engage the youth whose votes the BJP also eyes – through its online outreach campaign.
Opinion polls predict that though the AAP may not be the topmost choice, its leader Arvind Kejriwal is still the most popular choice for the CM’s post in Delhi. He is the face of his party and unlike Modi, also the CM candidate. Hence, while the AAP has deftly given the forthcoming electoral battle a ‘ ‘Kejriwal versus who?” twist, its advertisements focus solely on Kejriwal and highlight his achievements during the 49-days of governance. In a bid to correct its mistake of quitting the government within 49 days – the reason for the fresh elections now – the party now also promises never to repeat such blunder.
BJP: Will its Winning Spree Continue in Delhi?
The BJP, though short of majority, was the largest party in the 2013 Delhi assembly elections that had seen a fractured verdict. Right now it is on a winning spree, having won all major elections in the last six months.
In Delhi too, the last elections marked its strong appeal in the business class. Yet, the communal tensions in Trilokpuri and Bawana in November, as well as the incident of burning of a Church at Seema Puri last month, have flared up feelings that could see the minorities voting en bloc against the saffron party.
The AAP stands a better chance than the BJP in 13 constituencies where the minorities have a significant say. In last year’s Assembly elections, the BJP had won two of these seats.
BJP Needs to Make Inroads in the Dalit Votebank
Besides, the BJP also faces a tough challenge from the AAP in particular on penetrating into the Dalit vote bank in the city state. While Valmiki, Jatav, and other Dalit sub-castes account for 20 per cent of Delhi’s 12 million voters, the city state has 12 seats reserved for scheduled caste candidates. In the 2013 assembly elections, the AAP had won nine of these 12 seats.
Citing the incidents in Trilokpuri, Bawana or Seema Puri, the AAP and the Congress have accused the BJP of trying to play the communal card by pitting the Dalits against the Muslims in a bid to consolidate the Hindu votes.
The BJP has planned Dalit-focussed five corner meetings in every constituency, as well as organising a camp at Valmiki Colony in the New Delhi constituency from where Kejriwal is contesting. The party has also asked its leaders from Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan to camp in Delhi’s Dalit constituencies. Significantly, Ashok Kumar Chauhan, one of AAP’s founder members and a Dalit face, has joined BJP.
Yet, the challenge is tough. The AAP is going to these voters showcasing its Dalit ministers Rakhi Birla and Girish Soni.
AAP had a 32.9 per cent Vote Share in Parliamentary Elections
Yet, in the game of one-upmanship, the AAP claims the state BJP’s Dalit Cell has “defected” to it. Besides, its decision to deny ticket to nine sitting MLAs too is a smart mind game to upset the BJP calculations.
The BJP could take comfort from the fact that it did obtain over 50 per cent votes in the national capital in the last General Elections and emerged victorious in 60 of the 70 Assembly segments, while the AAP led in the remaining 10 assembly segments.
Yet, the AAP still had an overall vote share of 32.9 per cent in the parliamentary elections – a fact that the BJP cannot overlook.
Delhi is the last frontier to be conquered and the BJP has roped in all its 282 Members of Parliament for the job. But given the AAP’s resoluteness, and the Congress trying hard for a comeback, the saffron party does have a tough task ahead.
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