Jharkhand Assembly Polls : Five Major Issues
November 12, 2014
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Jharkhand is among the youngest states of India. It was carved out of Bihar on the 15 November 2000 during the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) regime at the Centre. The whole idea of self-determination of the tribals was behind the creation of the new state, which has a sizeable 26.34 per cent tribal population. Since then, Jharkhand has witnessed political instability and its economy has plunged under the debt burden of Rs 36,000 crore. Today, it has become a hotbed of the naxal violence.
As the state goes to elections for the third time since its inception for electing its 81-member house in five phases on November 25, December 2, 9, 14 and 20, following are some of the major issues that may influence the electoral outcome:
1. Vote for Stability
Fractured mandates in 2005 and 2009 have largely been responsible for political instability in the state, which, in the past 14 years has seen five chief ministers – all tribals, being replaced or displaced on nine occasions!
Among the national parties only the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Congress have tasted considerable electoral success in Jharkhand in the past. Yet, neither could form a majority government in the state and remained dependant on the regional parties’ support to rule in the state.
The three major regional parties of Jharkhand – the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha, the All Jharkhand Students Union (AJSU), and the Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (Prajatantrik) – have regularly played a key role in the process of government formation in the state. They are led by influential tribal leaders who constantly fight each other and in the process divide the tribal votes and largely contribute to the fractured verdict in the state.
For the first time, the BJP has entered into any pre-poll alliance in the state – with the AJSU which had won five seats last time; and its National Democratic Alliance partner, the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP). It has yielded eight seats to the AJSU to contest and one seat to LJP which does not have any presence in Jharkhand but its leader Ram Vilas Paswan may influence the Dalit votes in favour of the BJP in the state.
Among the tribal outfits, the Shibu Soren-led Jharkhand Mukti Morcha has more influence on the tribal voters than the other two – the AJSU and the JVM (P). Its leader Shibu Soren has been a three-time CM and his son Hemant has been the CM once. JVM (P) leader Babulal Marandi was the first CM of the state but at that time he was a BJP leader who finally left the BJP to form his own outfit.
This time, the JVM-P, which had won 11 seats last time, too has entered into a pre-poll alliance with the Trinamool Congress (TMC), which, just before the general elections this year had lured three legislators from the JMM and the Congress to its fold.
Incidentally, the present Jharkhand Mukti Morcha-led ruling coalition that comprised the United Progressive Alliance partners – the Congress and the Rashtriya Janata Dal – has collapsed on the poll eve. While the Congress has withdrawn its support to the JMM, it is keen on an alliance with the RJD and the Janata Dal (United) this time.
2. The Modi Effect
It may be mentioned that the BJP has ruled the state for the longest period.
In the May 2014 General elections, the party won 12 of the 14 seats from the state while polling 40.1 per cent of the total 65.1 per cent votes polled in the state. In the process, it led in 56 Assembly segments in Jharkhand.
Obviously, the Modi wave had worked during the Parliament elections in the state. But can it work again as it did in the recent Assembly elections in Haryana and Maharashtra?
The BJP has stuck to its winning strategy of Haryana and Maharashtra and has entered the fray without naming any CM candidate.
Yet, the party has also revamped the state in-charge portfolios in the run up to the Assembly elections in Jharkhand. Besides, much to the chagrin of the Opposition parties, it has inducted Hazaribagh MP Jayant Sinha (son of senior BJP leader Yashwant Sinha) into the Union ministry. The Opposition parties have approached the Election Commission alleging Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s move to induct Jayant in his ministry as a “violation of the model code of conduct in poll-bound Jharkhand” as it would influence the voters.
3. Tribal versus Non-tribal Leadership
Even as the BJP refrained from naming any CM candidate, already one of its senior leaders, Yashwant Sinha, has thrown his hat in the ring by triggering a debate on the issue of tribal versus non-tribal chief minister for the state and stated that a CM should be someone “who can deliver…”.
In the past the BJP had opted for tribal CMs – Babulal Marandi (who subsequently quit the BJP) and three-time CM Arjun Munda.
4. Economic development
Jharkhand bleeds because of illegal mining, and corrupt politician-contractor nexus.
Despite its vast natural resources and 40 per cent of the country’s mineral reserves, the state today has empty coffers and huge debt.
There is a growing feeling cutting across the political line that the issue of economic development would be the key yardstick for voters’ choice along with good governance and law and order that contribute immensely to the economic growth of any state.
5. Naxalism in Jharkhand
The naxals have yet again given a poll boycott call in Jharkhand. Though in the past the state witnessed ‘normal’ turnout of voters even in naxal-affected zones, the recent seizure of 400 kg of local explosives and over 1,700 detonators by the security forces during an anti-naxal operation throws ample light on the gravity of the issue and the adverse impact it may have on voters’ turnout during the elections.
Naxals, who have deep penetration into 22 of the 24 districts of Jharkhand, do have the capabilities to influence elections in over 50 seats in the state.
Though their threats have not upset the democratic process in the past, they remain a big issue for the security forces as well during the elections.
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