Will Modi Magic Work in Haryana in Upcoming Assembly Elections ?

By Deepak Parvatiyar

October 14, 2014

It has been Narendra Modi all the way during electioneering and the banners with the slogan — “Chalo chalen Modi ke saath (Come on. Let’s move together with Modi)”— says it all in Haryana that goes to Assembly polls along with Maharashtra on 15th October.

Modi continues to be a huge draw with the masses. His jet set rallies have discomforted the rival political parties and the Congress spokesperson Anand Sharma even quipped: “He (Modi) has been busy pretending to be Chief Minister face for every state be it Maharashtra or Haryana.”

Is BJP Banking on Modi Factor Alone ?

Just look at the numbers of rallies that the Prime Minister held in both Haryana and Maharashtra in the Assembly elections –ten in Haryana and almost two dozen such rallies in Maharashtra! He wound up Haryana with an incredible three rallies on the last day of campaigning in the state.

Isn’t it rather strange that the Bharatiya Janata Party requires a Prime Minister to win a state election?  This may reflect two things – either there is a dearth of leadership at the local level; or the transition of the BJP from a cadre-based party to a monolithic organisation driven by the charisma of just one leader – Narendra Modi.

There seems yet  another aspect – to encash the perceptible popularity of Modi for electoral gains in states where BJP either never did well (as in Haryana) or was content playing second fiddle in an alliance (as in Maharashtra).
It is a fact that ever since the sudden and unexpected deaths of Pramod Mahajan and Gopinath Munde, the BJP grapples with the leadership issue in Maharashtra. In Haryana, the party could never get a foothold in the state politics to boast of any leader who could win it elections. This does explain the failure of the Lotus to project any candidate for the Chief Minister’s post in both the states.

Can BJP Capture Haryana, Riding on Modi’s Charisma ?

But can the Modi magic still work on the electorates considering the dismal performance of the BJP in the recent by-elections in 13 states – many of them considered as the Lotus strongholds?

History is not kind to the BJP in Haryana where the maximum seats that the BJP could win in the 90-member state assembly were just 11. This too was about two decades ago in 1996 when it rode on the popularity of its alliance partner – Bansi Lal’s Haryana Vikas Party. (In comparison, the BJP does enjoy considerable political base in Maharashtra and it won 46 of the 119 seats it had contested for the 272-member Maharashtra house in 2009!)
To Modi’s favour, he knows Haryana well as he had served in the state as BJP’s prabhari (in-charge) in the mid-90s and it was then only that the party had performed its best in the Assembly elections in 1996. Yet, much water has flown down the bridge since then. The fact remains that the BJP still struggles to gain a foothold in the state!

Modi also Touching upon Good Governance

Can the Prime Minister’s carefully worked out strategy to rake up broader issues of good governance and development aimed at overcoming caste equations and local factors really work in Haryana?  He focused on broader issues such as governance and corruption and called for a riddance from the over 25 years of family rule in the state. He often took on the Bhupinder Singh Hooda government over the Robert Vadra-DLF land deals and also took pot shots at four time chief minister and Indian National Lok Dal leader Om Prakash Chautala, who is in jail in the teachers’ recruitment scam that happened when the latter was the chief minister.

Reports suggest that a fettered Chautala could be a real challenge to Modi as he enjoys the sympathy of his fellow Jats who comprise a sizeable 27 per cent of the electorates in the state. Yet, even Hooda is a Jat and that could ensure a split in the Jat votes. Besides, it has to be seen whether Modi’s attempts to whip up passion by referring to India’s befitting reply to Pakistan in Kashmir make an impact particularly on the Jats – a warring class after whom a specific regiment of Indian army has been named.

Despite Modi’s whirlwind campaigns and focus on broader issues, local factors and caste equations do play major roles in state elections and the BJP is not oblivious to this fact. It does bank heavily on the perceived anti-incumbency against Hooda’s Congress government. To counter Chautala, it hopes a possible consolidation of the other castes around the Lotus — namely Brahmins, Yadavs, Baniyas, Gujjars and Dalits.

Yet, the BJP’s biggest hope remains Modi and it largely depends on its star campaigner turning the tide in its favour. He had done this in the last general elections as Modi magic resulted in the BJP winning seven of the 10 seats from the state – a complete turnaround for the party considering that in the General Elections of 2009, the Congress had won nine seats against the BJP’s none. And in the 2009 Assembly elections, the Congress had won 40 of the 90 seats as against the BJP’s dismal four, to retain the power in the state.

The BJP strategists hope that the Modi magic still continues in the 53 of the 90 Assembly segments where the party had taken a lead in the last general elections that had then resulted in a quantum jump in the party’s vote share to a commendable 34.6 per cent from a dismal 17.21 per cent in the 2009 General Elections!