Post-Poll Scenario in Maharashtra and Haryana : Impact on Central Politics

By Deepak Parvatiyar

October 15, 2014

As nearly 10 crore voters in Haryana and Maharashtra exercise their franchise in the Assembly elections in the two states today (15th October), the outcome of the verdict would have far-reaching implications in New Delhi. They are just not about the reputation of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, but about the political future of the Congress Vice President Rahul Gandhi as well because the Congress is the ruling party in both the poll-bound states.

Yet another dimension of the poll outcome in these two states is that it could expedite the end of the era of coalition politics in case the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) wins on its own in these states.

BJP has a lot at stake in Maharashtra and Haryana Assembly Elections

Odds favour the BJP in both the states, and thus stakes are much higher for the Lotus than its rivals in the fray. The results may even impact the prospects of Delhi Assembly elections too where the state Assembly has been kept in suspended animation and the Union Government has sought time from the Supreme Court to spell out its decision only after Diwali (read after the poll results are declared).

This is the first time that Assembly elections are taking place in states after the last general elections. The by-poll results in 13 states in the intervening period were a setback to the BJP. Hence the two state elections are the litmus test for the new BJP president Amit Shah and his new team of party office bearers to prove that the by-elections outcome was a fluke.

It was Shah, ostensibly backed by his mentor Narendra Modi, who decided to snap the 25-year-old tie-up with the BJP’s very first political ally, the Shiv Sena in Maharashtra and the Haryana Janhit Congress (HJC) in Haryana over the issue of seat sharing on the poll eve.

Post-poll, Political Parties have to decide their Future Alignments

Ever since the break up, the Sena went on a vituperative campaign against the BJP. In the case of a hung assembly, Shah would surely require all managerial skills to strike a post-poll pact with his estranged ally in Maharashtra. Yet, if Sena emerges a clear winner, would it still prefer to remain a partner of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance at the Centre is to be seen.

The poll verdict would also be crucial for the ties between the BJP and the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) too. The ruling alliance partners in Punjab are bitter foes in Haryana this election where the SAD has partnered four time chief minister Om Prakash Chautala-led Indian National Lok Dal and is contesting two assembly seats.

This does signal that everything is not hunky dory between the two longstanding partners.  In case the INLD-SAD combine forms the government in Haryana, the SAD leader and deputy CM of Punjab, Sukhbir Badal, has spilled enough beans by discounting any possibility of persuading the BJP to join them in Haryana. What further queers the pitch for the BJP is that two Akali MLAs from Delhi — Harmeet Singh Kalka and Jitender Singh Shunty — who contested on the BJP symbol, campaigned for the SAD-INLD combine, despite being members of the BJP in Delhi Assembly.

Indeed, such regroupings would have lasting impact as they pose serious challenges to the BJP particularly in the Rajya Sabha where the NDA is in minority and require support from all quarters.

The Poll Results would Impact BJP’s Internal Politics

Any poll setback in the two states could also apply break on the pace at which the BJP has been proceeding to revamp its organisational setup by sidelining old warhorses that are above 75 year of age and were reluctant to be relegated to political oblivion. They include the two stalwarts – Lal Krishna Advani and Murli Manohar Joshi – who still hold considerable clout to stage a comeback in the party. Little doubt therefore that much is at stake for PM Modi on the personal front yet again.

That Modi is expected to deliver big by his party is evident from his campaigns – over two dozen rallies in Maharashtra and almost a dozen rallies in Haryana! But isn’t this rather unusual for a Prime Minister?

Can we say that by doing so, he deftly picked up the gauntlet to his advantage – if the BJP wins, he enjoys an undisputed authority; and if it loses, he still emerges as a leader who never shirked his responsibility and led from the front?

Many believe the PM has gone overboard this time and staked his own personal reputation in the process. Yet did he – as the BJP’s star campaigner – have any other option left  before him given the fact that in both the states BJP either never did well (as in Haryana) or was content playing second fiddle in an alliance (as in Maharashtra), all these years?

To Modi’s solace, he won’t be alone in the line of fire. He remains the rising star of the BJP but any loss to the Congress would be doubly more damaging to the Gandhi scion Rahul and his ilk.

Similarly, stakes are much higher for the regional satraps Nationalist Congress Party leader Sharad Pawar, the new Shiv Sena supremo Uddhav Thackeray and his estranged cousin and Maharashtra Navnirman Sena chief Raj Thackeray as well as the jailed INLD leader Chautala, in their home turf.

As stakes are equally high for all, it is to be seen if Modi magic still works. Wait till 19 October 2014.