Haryana and Maharashtra Assembly Polls: Multi-Cornered Contests
October 10, 2014
Can the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) redo its Lok Sabha elections performance in the Assembly polls in Maharashtra and Haryana? Like the General Elections, the party is indeed banking on the anti-incumbency factor in these two Congress-ruled states and trying to rake it up by making corruption a poll issue. It hopes a fruitful piggyback ride on its star campaigner Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s charisma and oratorical skills. Modi is already campaigning hard and has addressed scores of election rallies in the two states and is scheduled to address many more. But can his magic work again this time too?
General Elections and Vidhan Sabha Elections : Polls Apart
Undoubtedly Modi’s rallies fetch crowd but aren’t the dynamics of state elections more localised than the General Elections? None other than the BJP itself knows it better. After all, it had made the blunder of considering its triumph in the Assembly elections in four states as the barometer of popularity of its National Democratic Alliance government in New Delhi and preponed the General Elections by almost six months only to lose it in 2004!
Ever since it’s winning performance in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP’s graph has seen a decline in the subsequent by-elections in the states. It sustained poll shocker in 13 states including Bihar, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Punjab where the party had done well in the General Elections. In Modi’s home state Gujarat too, the BJP lost three assembly seats to the Congress. It also lost three seats in its stronghold, Rajasthan and could win just three of the eleven seats in Uttar Pradesh, where it had performed splendidly in the general election.
Ever since it’s winning performance in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP’s graph has seen a decline in the subsequent by-elections in the states. It sustained poll shocker in 13 states including Bihar, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Punjab where the party had done well in the General Elections. In Modi’s home state Gujarat too, the BJP lost three assembly seats to the Congress. It also lost three seats in its stronghold, Rajasthan and could win just three of the eleven seats in Uttar Pradesh, where it had performed splendidly in the general election.
Has BJP learnt from its September Assembly Polls Debacle ?
An interesting analysis is being made now to explain such by-poll defeats as a “laboratory experiment under controlled conditions”. RK Mishra, a Gandhinagar (Gujarat) based senior political analyst, says the by-election results in fact now helps Modi to tackle the hardliners in the Sangh-Parivar so as to maintain a “statesmanly countenance with his highly publicised foreign policy moves designed to earn him brownie points”.
Media report refer to the Bookies in Mumbai putting money on the BJP to emerge as the single largest party with a tally of 110-115 assembly seats in Maharashtra. The figure though is not enough for the BJP to form the government on its own in the state. Many other pre-poll surveys too suggest hung assemblies in both Maharashtra and Haryana. Can the BJP prove the pollsters wrong yet again? What if it doesn’t? Will it fall back on Shiv Sena for the required support? Or should Modi prefer a ‘secular’ Nationalist Congress Party as a partner to retain his newly acquired ‘statesmanly’ image? (After all, even the NCP too has snapped ties with the Congress on the poll eve in the state!). Thus far Modi has ruled out the second option but has hinted enough by not targeting the Sena during his election campaigns in the state.
Break-up of Alliances in Maharashtra and Haryana
The Assembly elections are multi-pronged in both Haryana and Maharashtra and both states boast of powerful regional satraps and their regional political outfits. Yet what has taken precedence is the recent breakups between the old and trusted allies: the NCP-Congress and the BJP-SS alliance in Maharashtra and the (not so old) BJP-Haryana Janhit Congress alliance in Haryana that relegated more serious issues to the backburner particularly in Maharashtra.
All these years, the BJP was content playing second fiddle to the Shiv Sena in Maharashtra while it remained a non entity in Haryana politics dominated by the Congress and the regional parties such as the Indian National Lok Dal, Haryana Vikas Party and so on. At present both the states are Congress-ruled and the fact that the BJP has decided to take on the ruling party as well as the regional satraps single-handedly does seem a bold move.
Will BJP Benefit by Fighting Solo in Maharashtra and Haryana?
Going alone in Maharastra after snapping ties with the Sena does appear a calculated risk (please refer to my blog Maharashtra Splits: A Political Drama) – to eat up the Congress-NCP votes – and wait to see who among the Sena and the BJP emerges as the largest party of the two. (In the worst case scenario, can the possibilities of the BJP allying with the NCP be ruled out?). Yet, how could the BJP overlook the possibilities of the regional parties NCP, SS and MNS uniting against the Congress and the BJP? Reportedly, attempts are being made now apparently at the behest of the NCP chief Sharad Pawar to forge an alliance between the three – quite an ominous signal to the BJP!
It would be a personal triumph for Modi if the BJP outperforms others in the elections and emerge as the single largest party in the state. Yet, such presumptions are based on seemingly sound logic – in the Lok Sabha elections, the party’s share of votes had jumped from 17.23 per cent in 2009 to 34.6 per cent and the BJP had won an unprecedented seven of 10 Lok Sabha seats in Haryana. In the process it had also registered a lead in 53 of the 90 assembly segments in the state.
It would be a personal triumph for Modi if the BJP outperforms others in the elections and emerge as the single largest party in the state. Yet, such presumptions are based on seemingly sound logic – in the Lok Sabha elections, the party’s share of votes had jumped from 17.23 per cent in 2009 to 34.6 per cent and the BJP had won an unprecedented seven of 10 Lok Sabha seats in Haryana. In the process it had also registered a lead in 53 of the 90 assembly segments in the state.
BJP Keen to Expand its Base
Yet again, a good performance in the General Election cannot be construed as a guarantee for a similar performance in the state elections and vice versa given the fact that local elections have their own dynamics. Remember, even when Atal Behari Vajpayee was at the peak of his popularity and the BJP-led NDA government was at the helm in Centre, still the BJP could win only six seats in the assembly elections in Haryana in 2000!
The only palatable reason for the BJP’s decision to go all alone at the state elections seems its anxiousness to spread its base quickly when the iron is still hot. To an extent it seems a good tactic. But can it yield good results for the Lotus? If so, it would spell further doom for the Congress! If not, then can Modi escape the blame? Let’s see.
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