September By-Poll Results : Is Modi Wave Losing Steam?

By Deepak Parvatiyar

September 17, 2014

Poll reversals in Assembly by-polls in nine states have jolted the BJP after its splendid performance in the General Elections. What comes as the biggest blow to the party is undoubtedly losing grounds in Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s home state Gujarat, where it lost three Assembly seats to the Congress. It also lost three seats in its stronghold, Rajasthan. In Uttar Pradesh, where the success in the Lok Sabha elections catapulted Amit Shah – the party’s then in-charge of the crucial state – to the elevated position of the BJP president, the party could win just three of the eleven seats in the by-elections. The only rosy picture presented to the party was in West Bengal where it could finally win a seat after 15 years!

The by-poll results are the second such setback in quick succession to the saffron brigade. Only last month it had sustained poll shocker in the Assembly by-elections in Bihar, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh and Punjab. But in all these four states, the party had performed splendidly in the General Elections.

Where has BJP gone wrong ?

So, what has transpired in the 100 days when lakhs had thronged to Modi’s campaign rallies across the country, and many even paid to listen to him?

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After all, wasn’t it the Modi magic that had cast a spell on the electorates during the general elections? No less than a person than finance minister and a close Modi associate Arun Jaitley had conceded recently at launch of the book Narendra Modi-The Gamechanger, that the BJP at the most had expected around “200-210 seats” in the Lok Sabha till Modi changed it and won a whopping 282 seats for the party through this untiring campaigns.

Obviously, much of the BJP’s victory is attributed to the non-performance of the previous Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government. A perceived policy paralysis along with charges of corruption and a weak leadership of Dr Manmohan Singh, who appeared a prisoner of the compulsions of the coalition government, did contribute in a big way to pave the way for a more outgoing and assertive Modi. He did prove to be a complete foil to Singh and his energy had an impact on the youth. His electrifying campaigns mesmerised his voters and this shrewd political manoeuvring made little of the challenge posed by Arvind Kejriwal and his Aam Admi Party—which was seen by many as another viable alternative to the Congress.

BJP : Victim of Anti-Incumbency ?

Political analysts are busy exploring reasons for such reversals for the BJP within a short span of merely 100-days. Already the Congress has quipped that this is perhaps the first government “whose anti-incumbency has begun within 100 days of coming to power”.

Agreed a government could not be evaluated just on the basis of its 100 days at the helm. That the BJP made some in-roads in the unknown territory of West Bengal this time also is a positive development for the party. Yet, isn’t that the only bright spot in an otherwise bleak scenario?

It is important to understand that despite the Modi blitzkrieg in the General Elections,and despite the victory of the BJP at the hustings, the party’s vote share was just 31 percent. Though this was much higher than the Congress’s 19.3 per cent, this effectively meant that almost five of every ten votes cast in 2014 ignored the BJP and the Congress as well – quite a sizeable chunk! That the regional Samajwadi Party fared well in the latest by-election suggests much about this missing vote bank of the BJP and the Congress as well.

Are the Voters, especially the Youth, Becoming disenchanted with the Modi Government?

Another factor that begs an analysis is the youth. The latest by-polls’ outcome suggest that for today’s young voters a development agenda natters more rather than frivolous issues concerning communal considerations. Obviously, Modi had targeted them and they ostensibly voted for him. Yet, unlike the elderly citizens, they demand instant results – a hypothesis tested in the realms of instant movie hits, instant fame, instant food and instant money in the era of communication explosion.

The debate on the catchy tagline “acchey din aane wale hain” has already assumed epic proportions. If the by-polls outcome is any indicator, the youth today do look for a quick delivery on poll promises.

Modi’s much-hyped up promise to bring back black money within “100 days” of assuming power now appears to the people like the Bofors carrot that once VP Singh had dangled before them to win votes — irrespective of the praise of his efforts by the Supreme Court as lately as on August 20, when it observed that “Some progress has been made.”
The latest reversals in the by-polls should be an eye-opener to the BJP. For, today’s voters are not willing to yield any ‘honeymoon’ period to the government. Modi needs to deliver faster to keep his magic alive.