Haryana Elections 2014 : Tough days Ahead for BJP and Congress
September 15, 2014
The common thread between Haryana and West Bengal is that none of them is a Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) bastion. While the party is yet to gain a foothold in West Bengal politics, the only time it could do well in Haryana was when it had a pact with late Bansi Lal’s Haryana Vikas Party (HVP) at the insistence of Narendra Modi, who was then the BJP national secretary in charge of the party affairs in Haryana.
Sujoy Dhar, Kolkata-based correspondent of a foreign news agency who has covered the West Bengal elections for the last two decades, says that he had never before seen such a ‘charged up’ BJP cadre as he discovered recently while covering the assembly by-elections for the Basirhat South seat in North 24-Parganas and the Chowringhee seat in Kolkata.
September 15, 2014
The common thread between Haryana and West Bengal is that none of them is a Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) bastion. While the party is yet to gain a foothold in West Bengal politics, the only time it could do well in Haryana was when it had a pact with late Bansi Lal’s Haryana Vikas Party (HVP) at the insistence of Narendra Modi, who was then the BJP national secretary in charge of the party affairs in Haryana.
Sujoy Dhar, Kolkata-based correspondent of a foreign news agency who has covered the West Bengal elections for the last two decades, says that he had never before seen such a ‘charged up’ BJP cadre as he discovered recently while covering the assembly by-elections for the Basirhat South seat in North 24-Parganas and the Chowringhee seat in Kolkata.Will Modi Effect Work in Haryana?
Can the same be said about Haryana where Assembly elections are to be held on 15th October?
“We will sweep the polls,” claims Dr. Anil Jain, co-incharge of the BJP’s Haryana affairs. He feels it is going to be a combination of both – the Modi wave, and the hard work that the party workers have put in.
West Bengal faces no immediate state elections but let it be clear that much is common between the eastern state and Haryana. In neither of these states could the BJP manage to make any dent in the past and hence, they offer unique platforms to study the BJP’s prospects in these hitherto invincible provinces.
In comparison, Congress party appears more vulnerable in Haryana in the face of its dismal showing in the general elections where it could win just one seat.
Can the same be said about Haryana where Assembly elections are to be held on 15th October?
“We will sweep the polls,” claims Dr. Anil Jain, co-incharge of the BJP’s Haryana affairs. He feels it is going to be a combination of both – the Modi wave, and the hard work that the party workers have put in.
West Bengal faces no immediate state elections but let it be clear that much is common between the eastern state and Haryana. In neither of these states could the BJP manage to make any dent in the past and hence, they offer unique platforms to study the BJP’s prospects in these hitherto invincible provinces.
In comparison, Congress party appears more vulnerable in Haryana in the face of its dismal showing in the general elections where it could win just one seat.
Will Regional Factors Influence Haryana Polls?
State elections have their own local dynamics. Consider that at a time when the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) under Atal Behari Vajpayee was perceived to be well in control of the government at the Centre, the BJP had failed to win a single seat in the West Bengal State Assembly elections in 2001. Similarly, in Haryana the BJP could win only six seats in the assembly elections of 2000!
Now let’s consider Haryana’s last assembly elections of 2009. At that time the Congress had bagged 40 seats and the BJP just four in the 90-member House. Even Independents had won more seats (seven) than the BJP while many of the BJP candidates had even lost their security deposits then.
Doesn’t it seem plausible, therefore, that the BJP has a tough road ahead considering that besides the Congress, it would also be required to get the better of the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) that won 31 seats last time and the Haryana Janhit Party (HJP) that had won six seats last time, to form the government in Haryana? Doesn’t the task seem onerous considering that the BJP has even severed its pact with its ally, the HJP, to go all alone in the elections this time?
State elections have their own local dynamics. Consider that at a time when the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) under Atal Behari Vajpayee was perceived to be well in control of the government at the Centre, the BJP had failed to win a single seat in the West Bengal State Assembly elections in 2001. Similarly, in Haryana the BJP could win only six seats in the assembly elections of 2000!
Now let’s consider Haryana’s last assembly elections of 2009. At that time the Congress had bagged 40 seats and the BJP just four in the 90-member House. Even Independents had won more seats (seven) than the BJP while many of the BJP candidates had even lost their security deposits then.
Doesn’t it seem plausible, therefore, that the BJP has a tough road ahead considering that besides the Congress, it would also be required to get the better of the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) that won 31 seats last time and the Haryana Janhit Party (HJP) that had won six seats last time, to form the government in Haryana? Doesn’t the task seem onerous considering that the BJP has even severed its pact with its ally, the HJP, to go all alone in the elections this time?
Can BJP Emerge Victorious without any Alliance in Haryana?
It is true that the BJP in the past could survive only through crutches in the electoral politics of Haryana. Come elections and invariably the BJP would look for an alliance partner. Yet even such alliances were of little help. Results were equally disappointing whenever it decided to go alone at the hustings. In 1989, its pact with the Janata Dal could not fetch the BJP any of the two parliamentary seats that it contested in the state. In 1991, when it decided against any alliance it lost all the ten parliamentary seats besides losing deposits in nine of them. Of the 89 assembly seats it contested the same year, it could win only two!
The only time that the BJP could make hay of any alliance in the state was in 1996, when it could win four of the six Lok Sabha seats that contested in the Lok Sabha elections and 11 of the 25 assembly seats that it contested in alliance with late Bansi Lal’s Haryana Vikas Party that eventually formed the government in the state.
“This is all history. The present belongs to the BJP,” says Dr. Jain. He has a point too.
Consider the ‘Ayaram Gayaram’ factor of Haryana politics. Isn’t it a precursor of the election mood swing? Look at the growing number of leaders who have defected from the Congress this election season – Birender Singh Chaudhary quit as Rajya Sabha MP and four-time Congress MP Avtar Singh Bhadana who had lost the last general election, both joined the BJP. Venod Sharma (who was once a close confidante of Chief Minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda), quit the Congress and formed his own Jan Chetna party. Before the Lok Sabha elections, three prominent faces of the state Congress, Rao Inderjit Singh (Gurgaon), Ramesh Chander Kaushik (Sonepat) and Dharambir Bhaleram (Bhiwani-Mahendragarh), too had joined the BJP following differences with Hooda.
It is true that the BJP in the past could survive only through crutches in the electoral politics of Haryana. Come elections and invariably the BJP would look for an alliance partner. Yet even such alliances were of little help. Results were equally disappointing whenever it decided to go alone at the hustings. In 1989, its pact with the Janata Dal could not fetch the BJP any of the two parliamentary seats that it contested in the state. In 1991, when it decided against any alliance it lost all the ten parliamentary seats besides losing deposits in nine of them. Of the 89 assembly seats it contested the same year, it could win only two!
The only time that the BJP could make hay of any alliance in the state was in 1996, when it could win four of the six Lok Sabha seats that contested in the Lok Sabha elections and 11 of the 25 assembly seats that it contested in alliance with late Bansi Lal’s Haryana Vikas Party that eventually formed the government in the state.
“This is all history. The present belongs to the BJP,” says Dr. Jain. He has a point too.
Consider the ‘Ayaram Gayaram’ factor of Haryana politics. Isn’t it a precursor of the election mood swing? Look at the growing number of leaders who have defected from the Congress this election season – Birender Singh Chaudhary quit as Rajya Sabha MP and four-time Congress MP Avtar Singh Bhadana who had lost the last general election, both joined the BJP. Venod Sharma (who was once a close confidante of Chief Minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda), quit the Congress and formed his own Jan Chetna party. Before the Lok Sabha elections, three prominent faces of the state Congress, Rao Inderjit Singh (Gurgaon), Ramesh Chander Kaushik (Sonepat) and Dharambir Bhaleram (Bhiwani-Mahendragarh), too had joined the BJP following differences with Hooda.
Will Hooda win or lose this time ?
While sources in the state BJP claim at least seven ministers of the Hooda government “are in contact but we have refused entry to them”, such claims can never be ascertained. Yet the fact remains that CM Hooda has a tough time ahead in face of the criticism from his own party leaders about his style of functioning, they include senior Congress leader and Rajya Sabha member Kumari Selja and senior minister Ajay Singh Yadav who recently quit the Hooda government.
So, is Hooda destined to lose this time? Even if we consider so, can we outrightly dismiss the INLD leader Abhay Chautala’s claim of getting the majority this time?
Yet, given the fact that Prime Minister Narendra Modi was once in-charge of Haryana for the BJP, much is at stake for him. After all, the road to West Bengal does pass through Haryana! Won’t Sujoy and Dr Jain concur?
http://www.elections.in/blog/haryana-elections-2014-tough-days-ahead-for-bjp-and-congress/
While sources in the state BJP claim at least seven ministers of the Hooda government “are in contact but we have refused entry to them”, such claims can never be ascertained. Yet the fact remains that CM Hooda has a tough time ahead in face of the criticism from his own party leaders about his style of functioning, they include senior Congress leader and Rajya Sabha member Kumari Selja and senior minister Ajay Singh Yadav who recently quit the Hooda government.
So, is Hooda destined to lose this time? Even if we consider so, can we outrightly dismiss the INLD leader Abhay Chautala’s claim of getting the majority this time?
Yet, given the fact that Prime Minister Narendra Modi was once in-charge of Haryana for the BJP, much is at stake for him. After all, the road to West Bengal does pass through Haryana! Won’t Sujoy and Dr Jain concur?
http://www.elections.in/blog/haryana-elections-2014-tough-days-ahead-for-bjp-and-congress/
http://www.elections.in/blog/haryana-elections-2014-tough-days-ahead-for-bjp-and-congress/
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