Elections 2014: North Gujarat, Saurashtra and Kutch

(English translation of the article published in Marathi daily Pudhari on 26th March 2014)

http://epaper.pudhari.com/details.aspx?ID=%20450325%20&boxid=194759515&pgno=1&u_name=0

Elections 2014

North Gujarat, Saurashtra and Kutch

By Deepak Parvatiyar

Narendra Modi’s home town Vadnagar falls in the Mehsana parliamentary constituency of North Gujarat. His exploits while growing up in this sleepy town, such as swimming in “crocodile infested”  local lake and selling tea at the railway station, has become a part of the folklore here. After all, Modi is perceived to be the next prime minister of the country!

While the BJP’s prime ministerial candidate himself chose to contest from Vadodara  in South-Central Gujarat (and Varanasi in Uttar Pradesh), his very name is enough to prop up the BJP here like elsewhere in the  Mehsana  parliamentary constituency– which the BJP had annexed from the Congress in the 2009 general elections. Campaigning is a low key affair though Modi’s posters adorn Mehsana town’s’ billboards and poles.

Elections have largely been a bipolar contest between the Congress and the BJP in Gujarat and the newly launched Aam Admi Party, which has fielded its candidates from 23 of the 26 constituencies, still remains an untested force in the electoral battle of north Gujarat and Kutch.

In the 2009 elections, despite Modi being at the helm in Gujarat, the Congress had done well by winning six seats in the north Gujarat and Saurashtra. These constituencies were Banaskantha, Patan (in North Gujarat), Jamnagar, Surendranagar Rajkot and Porbandar (in Saurashtra). From the total of 26 parliamentary seats from Gujarat, the Congress had won in 11 – just four less than the BJP’s 15 in the state.  However, fortunes have changed drastically for the Congress after the BJP clinched two seats from the Congress – the Banaskantha and Porbandar, in the by-elections in 2013.

This time the going is even tougher for the Congress. “That Modi is slotted for the top post is bound to make the difference this time,” said a political observer in Mahua – a sleepy town in Bhavnagar district, more famous for being the native land of former Congress chief minister late Chhabildas Mehta, and popular Hindu preacher Morari Bapu. The town falls under the Bhavnagar parliamentary constituency. The former BJP MLA from Mahuva, Dr Kanubhai Kalsaria, who had quit the BJP before the last assembly elections following his differences with Modi on the upcoming Nirma cement plant over a major sea-side water body in his constituency, is the AAP candidate for the Lok Sabha now. Earlier, after quitting the BJP, he had formed Sadbhavna Manch which took control of the Taluka panchayat in Mahuva. But Kalsariya lost his deposit in the last assembly elections though he succeeded in getting the project stopped. The BJP’s denial of ticket to sitting MP and former state BJP president Rajendrasinh Rana, too has made the contest in Bhavnagar interesting. Incidentally the battle for Bhavnagar is also interesting because it is the only constituency in the state where the Congress candidate, Praveen Rathod, was selected after the ‘primary’ – a US-style format to select candidates,  as suggested by the Congress Vice President Rahul Gandhi. (Vadodara was the other such constituency in the state where primary was held but the candidate thereafter withdrew, leaving a red-faced Congress field its general secretary Madhusoodan Mistry againstModi).

While Modi has discounted the caste politics in Gujarat, the Congress dismisses such claims and is reflected in the choice of its candidates in Rajkot, Surendranagar and Bhavnagar in Saurashtra and Kutch regions. All the three Congress candidates from here –Kunvarji Bavaliya (sitting MP, Rajkot), Soma Koli (sitting MP, Surendranagar) and Pratap Rathod (Bhavnagar) are from the Koli community which has a strong presence in these constituencies. As per the official figures, with a population of two lakh, Kolis form the second largest community after the Leuva Patels (3.25 lakh) in Rajkot, while in Surendranagar, they are the largest caste cluster with 4.75 lakh population, followed by Dalits (2.7 lakh).

Another important constituency in the region is Sabarkantha from where leader of the opposition in Gujarat assembly and Modi’s bête noir Shankarsinh Vaghela is contesting against BJP’s two-time MLA from Prantij in Sabarkantha district,Deepsinh Chauhan, and AAP’s Natwarbhai Govabhai Solanki. Sabarkantha has 16 lakh voters, including 3.5 lakh Thakores/OBCs, three lakh Scheduled Tribes and Patidars each, and 1.25 lakh each of Muslims, Scheduled Castes and others. Last time Dr Mahendrasinh Chauhan (BJP) had won the seat here while Vaghela had lost from the Panchmahals. This time Vaghela is hoping that Modi’s marketing of “falsehoods” would trigger “severe reaction” in the State.

 The most keenly watched constituency in the region though is Gandhinagar, from where the BJP stalwart LK Advani is widely perceived to be a reluctant warrior as, despite his clarifications, it’s an open secret that he wanted to contest from Bhopal this time following his reported differences with Modi. Last year, Advani decided to quit from all party posts after Modi was nominated as the BJP's PM candidate, but he later withdrew his resignation on party members' appeal. Advani’s prime ministerial ambition is well known and he was the party’s face for the prime minister’s post in the 2009 elections. Advani has been winning from Gandhinagar since 1998. This time he faces challenge from the Congress party's Kirit Patel, a former Gujarat state minister, and the AAP's Rituraj Mehta, a 49-year-old real estate businessman, who feels age is on his side in the contest against the 86-year-old BJP patriarch. If at all Advani loses, it will be counted as a big upset for the party.