By Deepak Parvatiyar
The Narendra Modi juggernaut seems unstoppable in the
Gujarat strongman’s home state. Yet it is to be seen whether the BJP’s prime
ministerial candidate secures all the 26 lok sabha seats from the state for his
party or not. In the last Lok Sabha elections in 2009 though, the BJP could win
15 lok sabha seats against the Congress’s 11 seats which was an improvement of
one seat from the 2004 elections.
With the Congress in total disarray in the state this time,
political observers feel the Aam Admi Party could prevent a Modi clean sweep in
the state following grapevines that the political greenhorns may rope in some
popular faces such as Amrita Patel –the chairperson of National Dairy
Development Board, Anand, SR Rao – the legendary former
municipal commissioner of Surat who transformed the city as one of the cleanest
cities in the country after the outbreak of the plague there in the 1990s.
Sources in the AAP say there are many such names which are doing rounds as
possible candidates to embarrass Modi in the elections. Besides, the Aam Admi
Party also hopes to wrest the sizeable Muslim votes in the state from the
Congress.
“AAP has some influence in the urban pockets where it has
certainly emerged as the number two party,” said a political observer. Eminent
Gandhian scholar Narayan Desai sees ‘hope’ in the Aam Admi Party and says he would not support Modi because he has not
shown any regret for the violence in 2002 in Ahmedabad. “Not only that, he conducted a tour in which
he addressed about 164 meetings and called it a Gaurav Yatra -- A pilgrimage of
pride. Pride of what? Killing of one’s own people (in) his own state? And that
is what I can’t support indeed,” he said in a recent interview.
Modi, though, had proved in the last assembly elections that
he could win in the state even without fielding a single muslim candidate in
the elections.
Not surprising therefore, that today no issue in the state
seems bigger than the issue of whether Modi can or cannot be the prime minister
of the country. A strong undercurrent of Gujarati asmita has apparently swept
Gujarat, where the people are swayed by the idea of Modi, a Gujarati – the
first after Morarji Desai (who incidentally was never a popular figure in
Gujarat) – being touted as the Prime Minister of India! With less than hundred
days remaining for the general elections, the NaMo chant is quite audible in
every nook and corner. “Despite all the attack on him after the riots, look how
he has finally triumphed,” says an ardent Modi fan. His adulation for Modi is
not unfounded. Modi’s rivals are
already off the hook. The Patels, who
had deserted him before the state assembly elections last year are back with
the BJP. Modi’s one time mentor turn foe, Keshubhai Patel has announced his
retirement from active politics. His political outfit, Gujarat Parivartan
Party, has merged with the BJP, and his son Bharat Patel is likely to contest
on the lotus symbol. How Modi has turned
the table on his arch rival and the Congress leader of the Opposition in the
state assembly, Shankarsinh Vaghela, too speaks volumes of his political acumen
this elections. He has deftly engineered
a split in the state congress and lured many of the congress MLAs loyal to
Vaghela – who himself was once a BJP face before he revolted against the Modi –
Keshubhai duo to split the BJP in the 1990s. Vaghela had then formed his own
Rashtriya Janata Party which finally merged with the Congress.
Today time seems to have taken a full circle. In a huge setback
to the Congress ahead of the Lok Sabha elections, five of its sitting
legislators have quit the party in the last few days for the BJP to rally
behind Narendra Modi. In the 182-member House where the BJP enjoys a brute
majority of 119, the resignations change little but clearly indicate that Modi
continues to have a firm grip on state politics even as he travels across the
country campaigning for the general elections. In fact so confident seems Modi
on his home turf that he hasn’t really launched his formal election rallies in
Gujarat yet. However, he is seen focussing more on meetings with party workers
– the most recent being with the youth workers of the party at a stadium in
Ahmedabad.
For over two decades, Gujarat has remained a BJP stronghold.
The party has done reasonably well in every Lok Sabha election after its
disastrous performance in the 1984 Lok sabha elections, irrespective of the
fact that it came to power in Gujarat for the first time only in the mid
nineties. Even in 1989, when the Janata Dal was at the peak of its popularity,
to JD’s 13 seats, the BJP came a close second with 10. The Congress could get
only three parliamentary seats from Gujarat that time.
Ever since, the electoral graph of the BJP has remained in
two digits in Gujarat. But with a Gujarati pitching for the prime minister’s
post, will entire Gujarat stand behind its Narendrabhai to ensure a BJP victory
in all of the 26 parliamentary constituencies in the state, is to be seen.
(The writer is a New Delhi based senior journalist)
Comments
Post a Comment