Karnataka Elections 2018: Can the BJP win the Congress stronghold?

Karnataka Elections 2018

Can the BJP win the Congress stronghold?

By Deepak Parvatiyar

The Marathi translation of the this article was published in leading Marathi daily Pudhari on 

http://newspaper.pudhari.co.in/fullview.php?edn=Solapur&artid=PUDHARI_SOL_20180429_07_2

In the wake of the importance attached to the Karnataka elections, it is significant that the BJP is not the repeating the mistakes it made in 2013 by antagonizing BS Yeddyurappa, a Lingayat. 

The controversial leader is back in the BJP fold as its state president and its CM candidate. Reports suggest the BJP is also going all out to woo the Janata Dal (Secular) and its leader (former Prime Minister) H.D.Deve Gowda – an influential Vokkaliga leader. The Lingayats and Vokkaligas are the most dominant communities in the state that constitute 29% of the population. Many consider that Deve Gowda could be the king maker in the state. Such presumptions gain ground considering that the present Assembly had 103 MLAs from the two communities, 53 Vokkaligas and 50 Lingayats. This is marginally short of half of Karnataka House’s total strength of 224!

Considering these facts, the Congress has led an assault on the BJP over Yedyurappa. Besides, the Congress has also made BJP’s decision to give party ticket to seven members from the Reddy clan, which is embroiled in an alleged Rs. 50,000 crore mining scam, a big poll issue. The issue has become big to an extent that Shah reportedly had to cancel his scheduled tour of Bellary district on Friday to avoid the embarrassment of sharing the dais with the Reddy brothers, who belong to Bellary. But so far as winning Bellary is concerned, the BJP is going by the dictum that everything is fair is love and war, particularly at a time when many consider the Karnataka election to be a neck and neck contest. The fact is that Gali Janardhana Reddy, the alleged kingpin of the mining mafia, has been leading the BJP campaign in central Karnataka districts. BS Yeddyurappa has gone to the extent of even stating that he has pardoned the Reddy brothers “in the interest of the state”. Political pundits believe the Reddy brothers can make the BJP win 8-10 seats from their stronghold but will that help the BJP elsewhere in the state is to be seen.

How much every single seat is important for the BJP could be gauged by the fact that in 2013, while it could win only 40 seats, same as what the JD(S) had won, the party was vulnerable in at least 32 seats then -- in 16 such seats, its winning margin was less than 5,000 votes and it had lost 14 seats to the Congresss  and 2 seats to the JD(S) by a margin of less than 5000 votes.

Even now it faces an uphill task to upstage the Congress or match the latter’s 2013 tally of 122. Caste factor and certain anti-incumbency factors are what the BJP appears to be counting heavily on. In particular, it is looking to capitalize on the disillusionment of certain castes with the Congress this time. While  the Madiga -- a dalit community across Karnataka are turning against the Congress and the  Madiga Dandora Samiti has called the community members to vote against Sidharamaiah in Badami, the Bhovis & Lambanis who form the non Dalit SCs are already perceived to be with the BJP. These 3 castes make up 70% of all SCs! The fact that majority of top SC leaders of INC are from the smaller Right Hand(Chalavadi) community and most of the SC leaders of BJP are from non-Right communities has further pushed Left Hand Dalits along with Bhovis and Lambanis towards BJP. Besides, the party’s move to  B Sriramulu, a 46-year-old leader of the Valmiki-Nayak community (7 percent of the population) is seen by many as a move to attract not just much of the Scheduled Tribe vote, but also to  connect better with Dalits, a community seen to be annoyed with the BJP. He being a Telugu speaker could also connect the party better with the Hyderabad Kannada region.

While many dismiss the anti-incumbency as redundant as Karnataka’s economy is in good shape, the water crisis particularly in North and Northeast Karnataka is a factor that may help the BJP. These were the regions  where the party had not done well in 2013 and could respectively win only 13 of the 50 seats, and five of the 40 seats. This time as a large area in North and North East Karnataka are facing acute shortage of drinking water, especially Yadgir, Gulbarga, Koppal, Raichur & Gadag, the BJP could have a chance to improve its tally here. Since most sitting MLAs in these districts are from Congress, water indeed is a big issue hurting the ruling state Congress.

Yet much will also depend on the BJP’s yet to be released Vision Document for the state particularly after the Congress president Rahul Gandhi dismissed such a document as yet an extended  version of “Mann ki baat…scripted by only a handful of people with the help of RSS”. But whether such a Congress campaign affect the BJP is to be seen.