Maharashtra Assembly Polls 2014 : Implications of the End of Alliances
September 27, 2014
The time-tested political alliances — Shiv Sena-Bharatiya Janata Party, and the Indian National Congress-Nationalist Congress Party — collapsed like a pack of cards within a matter of hours in Maharashtra on Thursday, the 26th September.
On the surface, the reasons seem common for both the break ups – each one of the alliance partners wanted to have a larger share of the pie and wanted to contest more seats than the other in the ensuing state assembly elections.
Performances of Allies in 2009 Maharashtra Assembly Polls
In the last assembly elections in 2009, the Congress had emerged as the largest party in the 272-member Maharashtra House by winning 82 of the 169 seats that it had contested. Its coalition partner, the NCP, had then won 62 of the 114 seats it had contested then then.
The BJP that had then contested 119 seats had won 46 of them while the Shiv Sena had won 45 of the 160 seats it had contested.
The results were self explanatory and enough reasons for any future discord over seat sharing in the state elections because in percentage terms, the NCP had scored over the Congress, winning over 54 per cent of the seats it had contested as against the Congress’s 48.5 per cent!
Similarly, the BJP had done far better than the Shiv Sena by winning over 54 per cent seats that it had contested as against Sena’s 48.52 per cent in the last assembly elections!
Why did the Alliances end in Maharashtra?
It is worth pointing out that both – the BJP-SS as well as the NCP-Congress alliances, lasted for 25 years and 15 years respectively.
The BJP and the SS being staunch proponents of Hindutva were natural allies. But the same could not be said about the Congress and the NCP because the whole idea of the NCP was conceived after senior leaders Sharad Pawar, PA Sangma and Tariq Anwar were expelled from the Congress as they questioned the right of Italian-born Sonia Gandhi to be the prime minister in 1999. Obviously political compulsions did bring them together and their marriage of convenience did last for long – till the Congress got the drubbing in the last general elections.
The Effect of General Elections 2014 on Alliances
Can we say the last general elections outcome proved to the final nail in the coffin of these alliances?
Let’s first look at the case of the BJP. In the Lok Sabha elections, the party’s hit rate of 95.8 per cent was considerably higher than that of Sena’s at 90 per cent and as I wrote in one of my previous blogs – ‘BJP – Shiv Sena: Uneasy Alliance for Maharashtra Assembly Polls 2014’ – for the first time in state politics, statistics favoured the BJP to assume the mantle of big brother – a prospect that made the Shiv Sena wary of its own existence in the state.
As for the NCP, it wanted to contest an equal number of seats in the ensuing elections on grounds that the party had fared much better by winning twice as many seats than the Congress in the state in the last general elections, in process faring much better than the Congress in the state assembly segments.
As for the NCP, it wanted to contest an equal number of seats in the ensuing elections on grounds that the party had fared much better by winning twice as many seats than the Congress in the state in the last general elections, in process faring much better than the Congress in the state assembly segments.
Ground Realities Favoured Splits in Alliances
A particular trend of both the splits was that the parting shots were taken by the perceived junior partners – respectively the BJP and the NCP.
Another common factor was that they parted their ways because the senior partners – the Shiv Sena and the Congress – refused equal number of seats to contest to their respective allies and this was the immediate cause of the split. Why so?
Obviously, after the death of Bal Thackeray, the SS is in a transition phase. While it did well in the general elections by winning 18 seats in alliance with the BJP, ironically more than its opponents, it has more reasons to be wary of a buoyant BJP in the only state where it has some political clout. It is in this light that the Sena’s refusal to accord equal status to the Lotus may be analysed.
As far as the Congress is concerned, its desperation to hang on as a reckoning force is well understandable in face of its decimation first in the Delhi assembly elections and then, in the last general elections. So, yielding to the NCP’s demand for an equal share of seats in the state elections would have reflected poorly on the Congress and shown it as a party constantly on a decline and even losing its bargaining strength with its junior partners.
In the wake of the splits, it seems that the round one of such political manoeuvrings belong to the BJP and the NCP. The latter may find it to be a good riddance from the Congress’s ostensible sinking ship, and an opportune time to explore new vistas. Its growing proximity to the BJP is a matter of speculation. Remember the party had supported the BJP over the FDI in retail in the Rajya Sabha, even when its Maharashtra unit president Madhukar Pichad had said he did not support bringing FDI in retail in the state? The Congress too has accused the NCP of cozying up to the BJP!
Possibilities of New Alliances in Maharashtra
The BJP has categorically stated against any alliance with the NCP though and instead indulged into making a dent in the NCP cadre. Soon after the NCP-Congress break up, an NCP minister in Maharashtra government, Sanjay Savkhare joined the BJP along with former union minister Suryakanta Patil. A former state minister Vijay Kumar Gavit as well as former Maharashtra NCP chief Babanrao Pachpute too quit the NCP to join the BJP.
As for the BJP, it has many options to consider now. It may consider a pact with Shiv Sena chief Uddhav Thackeray’s estranged cousin and Maharashtra Navnirman Sena supremo Raj in case of a hung assembly. Or, given the fact that the SS still supports the BJP ideologically, it will be interesting to see if both regroup again after the assembly elections.
In any case, the breaking of the alliances in the state signal emergence of new power equations. But for the time being, everyone seems to be fending for himself in Maharashtra. So who emerges stronger? Let the voters decide.
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