My Columns: Without Fear and Favour

Why did the BJP win in Assam? By Deepak Parvatiyar May 19, 2016 - See more at: http://www.elections.in/blog/why-did-the-bjp-win-in-assam/#sthash.Ot0m8BUA.dpuf The poll outcome in Assam has been a giant leap for the Bharatiya Janata Party in a state where in the last assembly elections in 2011 it won just 5 of the 126 seats! The poll outcome though was along the predicted lines of the exit polls this time.  This was one election where the BJP had sensed an outside chance of creating history by annexing power for the first ever time in North East. This was based on a couple of factors – a)  The anti-incumbency wave against the 15 year old Tarun Gogoi-led Congress government b)  The sensitive Muslim migrant issue which had earlier fetched the BJP rich dividends in 2014 general elections when it had bagged seven of the 14 Lok Sabha seats in the state. Unlike in Bihar and Delhi where the BJP’s hopes of forming a government were dashed, the party learnt its lesson f

Why did the LDF win in Kerala? By Deepak Parvatiyar May 19, 2016 - See more at: http://www.elections.in/blog/why-did-the-ldf-win-in-kerala/#sthash.HuJjhxIa.dpuf Unlike Tamil Nadu, Kerala kept its tryst with history by not allowing an incumbent government a second consecutive term since 1970s. With the return of Left Democratic Front after five years, the outgoing Chief Minister Oomen Chandy failed to do a Jayalalithaa in neighbouring Tamil Nadu. He failed to retain his chair and thus forfeited his chance this time to join the exclusive club of AK Antony, late EK Nayanar and late K.Karunakaran who had donned the mantle of the CMship thrice in the state. Besides an unfavourable history, a number of other factors need to be analysed for the defeat of the UDF in “God’s Own Country”. After all, under Chandy’s stewardship, Kerala had indeed shown remarkable economic progress in the last five years – the state’s GDP averaged higher than the national average between 2012, 20

Why did AIADMK win in Tamil Nadu? By Deepak Parvatiyar May 19, 2016 - See more at: http://www.elections.in/blog/why-did-aiadmk-win-in-tamil-nadu/#sthash.Qz6gU8il.dpuf By retaining her government for the second consecutive term, J Jayalalithaa made history in Tamil Nadu. Despite All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazahagam’s seats share going down, Amma did prove most of the exit polls wrong by bouncing back to power. In the process, TN yet again proved that it hasn’t yet risen above cult politics that many had anticipated to diminish following the emergence of a “significant” third front in the state and multi-cornered fight. The only party to benefit a bit was the BJP though, which had never opened its account in the southern state. DMK could not match Jaya’s prowess Not only that, the so called “Third Front” experiment ended with a whimper, but the votes were again largely divided between the rival outfits of two cult figures of TN politics – Jaya and M.Karunanidhi