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Popular Choices – Who will be the next CM of Bihar?

By Deepak Parvatiyar

November 7, 2015

With the final leg of polling over and exit polls predicting a cliffhanger, all eyes are on who will form the next government in Bihar. During the grueling five-phased elections, a keen contest was seen between the  Mahagathbandhan – the grand alliance of Janata Dal (United), Rashtriya Janata Dal and the Congress, or the United Democratic Alliance comprising the Bharatiya Janata Party, the Lok Janshakti Party, the Rashtriya Lok Samata Party and the Hindustani Awam Party (Secular). The third front of Mulayam Singh Yadav’s Samata Party-led Samajwadi party comprised the Nationalist Congress Party as well as Rajesh Ranjan’s Jan Adhikar Party (Loktantrik). However, the third front was largely seen to split the votes of the Mahagathbandhan. It is interesting though that even the Bahujan Samaj Party, which has insignificant presence in Bihar politics, contested 228 of the 243 seats.

With the elections over and no exit poll giving any chance to the Third Front or parties such as the BSP, the focus has shifted to the two alliances – the NDA and the Mahagathbandhan. The next chief minister is expected to be from either of these two alliances, whichever is able to form the next government in the state.
As far as the Mahagathbandhan is concerned, there is no ambiguity on its chief minister’s choice. The name of the outgoing chief minister and JD(U) leader Nitish Kumar was declared well in advance and he was the CM face of the Mahagathbandhan in the elections. Still a popular choice, with many opinion polls still suggesting him to be the most preferred choice for the coveted post of the CM, his popularity though got affected with the adverse media reports on his move to join hands with Lalu Yadav, the indomitable RJD supremo who is a convict in the multi-crore fodder scam.

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Much will depend on the poll outcome and Nitish will surely return as CM in case the Mahagathbandhan wins the elections.
Unlike the Mahagathbandhan, much ambiguity lies in the NDA’s choice of CM in case it wins in Bihar. Its decision to make Prime Minister Narendra Modi its poll mascot has created a suspense over the leadership issue at the state level. While there are many leaders within the BJP fold who are CM aspirants, the same could be said even about the NDA alliance partners although the LJP leader Ram Vilas Paswan as well as the HAM(S) leader Jitan Ram Manjhi had pulled out of the CM’s race before the elections. They still remain a serious contender for the post from within the NDA alliances and much depends on the number of seats their respective political outfits are able to win.While LJP contested 40 seats, HAM(S)comtested 20 seats and five of its supporters contested on BJP’s symbol.
Of late Manjhi, a Mahadalit leader, did question Paswan’s  status as Dalit leader while Paswan opposed five present and ex-MLAs associated with the Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular) for deserting the party after the February, 2005 Bihar poll.
That the Dalit and Mahadalit factor were crucial to the BJP’s scheme of things during elections was clear from the very beginning the when the party wooed Manjhi to join the NDA fold. Given the significance of the OBC and Dalit votes, even RJD chief Lalu Yadav took a potshot at the BJP’s reluctance to announce its CM candidate by saying that the NDA should obey ‘doctrine of alliance’ and declare either RLSP chief and  Upendra Kushwaha, HAM(S) supremo Jitan Ram Manjhi or LJP president Ram Vilas Paswan as the chief ministerial candidate.
Despite his denial,  the fact that Manjhi still nurses the ambition of becoming the CM is no secret since time and again he has been dropping hints on his ambition to be the CM. Consider his statement to a newspaper: “ I am not a CM candidate myself. But I have done 71 rallies so far across the state. Every candidate of the NDA alliance wants me to speak in his constituency – the whole state wants to see me and hear me speak. Even the BJP knows that…”
BJP President Amit Shah though had to clarify that Manjhi had not been given any hint that he could occupy the CM’s post in case of an NDA victory at the hustings.
Yet, one name that has emerged strongly for the coveted CM’s post in case the NDA wins elections is from within the BJP fold itself and that is of Dr. Prem Kumar – who is seeking reelection for seventh time from Gaya.
There have been enough indications of his likely elevation to the post right from the beginning when his posters were placed along with a handful of BJP leaders on the party’s Parivartan Raths just before the elections. His supporters had even created a “Dr Prem Kumar for CM of Bihar” page on social networking site, Facebook, and even demanded him to be the next CM during an election rally of Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Dr. Kumar’s home constituency, Gaya.
What makes Dr. Kumar’s claim strong is his Extremely Backward Class (EBC) status. Although it was the Nitish Kumar government that carved 130 castes out of the OBC to create the EBCs as it had created the Mahadalits, it did not help Nitish politically as both the Mahadalits and EBCs created their own leaders – Manjhi and Dr. Kumar.
They hold the key these elections and if the NDA wins, they emerge as the deciding factor. Unlike Manjhi, Dr Kumar is a home bred leader of the BJP and if the party wins, it will be difficult to ignore the aspirations of 45 per cent EBCs of the state. Ostensibly the BJP realizes this fact and hence at least two of its leaders – popular Bhojpuri film artist and BJP member of Parliament from East Delhi Manoj Tiwary, and former union minister Syed Shahnawaz Hussain, declared Dr. Kumar as the BJP’s CM face just before the second round of electioneering ostensibly to woo the EBC community. However, Shahnawaz later queered the pitch by backtracking on his statement. Yet, enough indications are there since Dr. Kumar was even assigned the role of addressing a couple of BJP press conferences in the party’s state office in spite of the fact that he holds no official post within the party.
Dr. Kumar’s growing prominence within the BJP was further demonstrated when Amit Shah had him seated next to him at his first press conference in Patna on 19 October which made a mediaperson ask whether there was any “symbolic value attached to it?” To this Shah replied that, “It is up to you to decide.”
Yet another strong contender for the CM’s post in case the BJP wins is that of former deputy chief minister Sushil Kumar Modi. He has been all around the places during the elections and been a visible face in the media. Being a compatriot of Nitish and Lalu – all the three starting their political career from the JP Movement in the ‘70’s, he at present the Leader of the Opposition in the Bihar Legislative Council. However, given the lack of caste strength of his Vaishya community, which falls under the OBC category and pales into insignificance in face of Dr. Kumar’s EBC support base, it has to be seen whether the BJP will prefer him over the latter in case the NDA manages to form the government in the state. Yet another name doing rounds is that of the BJP’s Leader of the Opposition in the state assembly, Nand Kishore Yadav who though is junior to Dr Kumar in politics. Some other names such as that of senior BJP leaders and union ministers from Bihar, Ravi Shankar Prasad, Rajiv Pratap Singh Rudy too are doing rounds but whether the BJP will opt for an upper caste leader as its CM is to be seen considering the fact that in backwards dominated Bihar, the last upper caste CM was Dr Jagannath Mishra way back in 1989-90.
Yet an interesting scenario will emerge in case of a hung assembly.  In case the NDA got an edge, allies will definitely put pressure on the BJP and bargain for more.
As for now, while Nitish is the definite CM choice in case of a Mahagathbandhan government, the BJP will be required to take a call in case it forms the government. But will that be a unanimous choice is to be seen.

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