Is Punjab the next destination for AAP?
February 16, 2015
After Delhi, can Punjab be the next big haul for the Aam Aadmi Party? After all, it is the only state from where the AAP could win seats (four seats to be more precise) in the last general elections.
So, shouldn’t the AAP now embark on a plan to do well in Punjab straightaway to make a dent in the Shiromani Akali Dal-Bharatiya Janata Party citadel well on time when it goes to poll in 2017?
Yet there is some ambivalence in the AAP’s approach. Consider Delhi chief minister and the Aam Aadmi Party leader Arvind Kejriwal’s statement that he made while addressing a huge gathering of people who had flocked to the historic Ramlila Maidan during his oath taking ceremony on 14 February – “I have decided …I will remain in Delhi for (the next) five years to serve only the people of Delhi and try to discharge my responsibilities with the best of my ability.”
Mark his words that followed:
“…our people are saying… that now we will contest elections in ten states. Such statements smack of arrogance and I do not think this (attitude) is correct…”
Kejriwal stopped short of saying whether his party would contest elections outside Delhi or not. He did not spell out clearly whether he really wanted to stick to Delhi for the next five years. In case he really did not want to contest elections elsewhere, what could be the implications of such a move on his Aam Aadmi Party?
February 16, 2015
After Delhi, can Punjab be the next big haul for the Aam Aadmi Party? After all, it is the only state from where the AAP could win seats (four seats to be more precise) in the last general elections.
So, shouldn’t the AAP now embark on a plan to do well in Punjab straightaway to make a dent in the Shiromani Akali Dal-Bharatiya Janata Party citadel well on time when it goes to poll in 2017?
Yet there is some ambivalence in the AAP’s approach. Consider Delhi chief minister and the Aam Aadmi Party leader Arvind Kejriwal’s statement that he made while addressing a huge gathering of people who had flocked to the historic Ramlila Maidan during his oath taking ceremony on 14 February – “I have decided …I will remain in Delhi for (the next) five years to serve only the people of Delhi and try to discharge my responsibilities with the best of my ability.”
Mark his words that followed:
“…our people are saying… that now we will contest elections in ten states. Such statements smack of arrogance and I do not think this (attitude) is correct…”
Kejriwal stopped short of saying whether his party would contest elections outside Delhi or not. He did not spell out clearly whether he really wanted to stick to Delhi for the next five years. In case he really did not want to contest elections elsewhere, what could be the implications of such a move on his Aam Aadmi Party?
The right time for AAP to go in for the kill in Punjab
Consider that when it won four parliament seats in Punjab, the AAP had led in 34 of the 117 assembly segments of the state in the last general elections. Significantly, of these 34 segments, 18 were represented by the ruling SAD! Hence, at a time when even the SAD-BJP alliance faces a stormy weather, isn’t this the right time for the AAP to go for a kill in the land of five rivers?
Yet Kejriwal seems reluctant in taking a call for certain reasons. His seems a classic case of once bitten twice shy approach. Consider his statement:
“…We had won 28 seats (in Delhi). This perhaps allowed some arrogance to creep in and it shaped our party’s decision to contest elections across the country. But thereafter what happened in the Lok Sabha elections, showed us our place…We should learn our lesson and stay away from arrogance.”
The greatest dilemma before Kejriwal is how to deliver on his poll promises built around the catchphrase “Paanch Saal Kejriwal (Give five years to Kejriwal)” after his unwarranted and ignominious exit as Delhi CM in just 49 days last year. Before the just concluded election, he had publicly apologised for quitting and therefore his remarks were reflective of the AAP supremo’s acquiescence to his voters’ expectations.
Kejriwal is not just a Delhi CM. As the head of the AAP, he does have the responsibility to make his party grow horizontally. As of now, none can dispute that he is riding a crescendo after having stopped the BJP juggernaut in Prime Minsiter Narendra Modi’s own backyard in Delhi, and in the process, won over the Congress vote bank in the national capital. His party’s spectacular performance of winning 67 of the 70 assembly seats in Delhi has caught the imagination of the whole nation.
Consider that when it won four parliament seats in Punjab, the AAP had led in 34 of the 117 assembly segments of the state in the last general elections. Significantly, of these 34 segments, 18 were represented by the ruling SAD! Hence, at a time when even the SAD-BJP alliance faces a stormy weather, isn’t this the right time for the AAP to go for a kill in the land of five rivers?
Yet Kejriwal seems reluctant in taking a call for certain reasons. His seems a classic case of once bitten twice shy approach. Consider his statement:
“…We had won 28 seats (in Delhi). This perhaps allowed some arrogance to creep in and it shaped our party’s decision to contest elections across the country. But thereafter what happened in the Lok Sabha elections, showed us our place…We should learn our lesson and stay away from arrogance.”
The greatest dilemma before Kejriwal is how to deliver on his poll promises built around the catchphrase “Paanch Saal Kejriwal (Give five years to Kejriwal)” after his unwarranted and ignominious exit as Delhi CM in just 49 days last year. Before the just concluded election, he had publicly apologised for quitting and therefore his remarks were reflective of the AAP supremo’s acquiescence to his voters’ expectations.
Kejriwal is not just a Delhi CM. As the head of the AAP, he does have the responsibility to make his party grow horizontally. As of now, none can dispute that he is riding a crescendo after having stopped the BJP juggernaut in Prime Minsiter Narendra Modi’s own backyard in Delhi, and in the process, won over the Congress vote bank in the national capital. His party’s spectacular performance of winning 67 of the 70 assembly seats in Delhi has caught the imagination of the whole nation.
Kejriwal is not just a Delhi CM. As the head of the AAP, he does have the responsibility to make his party grow horizontally. As of now, none can dispute that he is riding a crescendo after having stopped the BJP juggernaut in Prime Minsiter Narendra Modi’s own backyard in Delhi, and in the process, won over the Congress vote bank in the national capital. His party’s spectacular performance of winning 67 of the 70 assembly seats in Delhi has caught the imagination of the whole nation.
Kejriwal should go all out to make AAP a viable national option
So shouldn’t he waste no time and go all out to make the AAP a viable national option? In this context, won’t Punjab weigh heavily on him? Yet before Punjab, elections are due also in Bihar later this year, and West Bengal next year.
The question thus arises that being a shrewd tactician, shouldn’t he strike while the iron is still hot so as to expand the AAP’s base outside Delhi and in these poll going states?
Such a proposition though needs to be analysed carefully. In poll bound Bihar and West Bengal, the AAP rather finds itself in a piquant position considering that both, the ruling Trinamool Congress and the Opposition CPM in West Bengal, and Bihar’s ruling Janata Dal (United) and its ally the Rashtriya Janata Dal as well, had supported Kejriwal in Delhi. Hence, none of these parties had fielded its candidates in Delhi. Other reasons for the AAP to avoid these two states for the time being could well be that it has no base whatsoever there; and it has no time even given it just formed its government in Delhi.
However, none could deny that the AAP does seem to have a realistic chance of performing well when Punjab faces polls after two years but what comes in the way is the ambivalence that surrounds Kejriwal – He needs to chart a course for the AAP and at present he does not want to go beyond Delhi.
Does this imply that he wants the AAP to be seen as a regional party of Delhi like the Shiv Sena or the Telugu Desam Party? If so then this would be a drastic course correction on Kejriwal’s part considering that not very long ago, just about nine months ago, he had himself contested the Lok Sabha elections from Varanasi, while his party had contested the Lok Sabha elections in not less than 432 constituencies across the country.
Still, Kejriwal does have examples of regional parties before him who could never expand their bases beyond their respective states and whenever they tried, they at best could only emerge as fringe players. Examples galore– the Shiv Sena and the Nationalist Congress Party (both in Maharashtra), the Trinamool Congress (in West Bengal), the CPM (in West Bengal and Kerala), the Rashtriya Janata Dal and Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (in Bihar and Jharkhand), the Janata Dal (United) in Bihar, the Samajwadi Party, the Rashtriya Lok Dal and the Bahujan Samaj Party (in Uttar Pradesh), the Shiromani Akali Dal (in Punjab),the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagham and the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagham (both in Tamil Nadu), the Telugu Desam Party (in Andhra Pradesh), the Biju Janata Dal (in Odisha), …and so on.
A larger question that though merits an answer is that after having tasted blood in Delhi and sensing opportunity in Punjab, can Kejriwal remain contented? After all why should he remain confined to Delhi considering that the national capital is not even a full-fledged state and has just seven Lok Sabha seats?
In such a light, Punjab naturally appears the next big destination for the Broom in 2017. Reports suggest that there are enough indications that the party might even contest the ensuing assembly by-election for Dhuri assembly seat in Punjab which had fallen after the Congress’ Arvind Khanna resigned as MLA. In the last general elections, the AAP’s winning candidate from Sangrur, Bhagwant Mann, had a lead of about 33,800 votes in the Dhuri segment.
Nothing wrong if the AAP contests the by-election in Punjab. What though is required that Kejriwal clears the ambiguity over his comment that “I’m not going anywhere…”
As they say, a straight-talking politician may seem to be a contradiction in terms. But Kejriwal needs to speak out. And that won’t be taken as arrogance!
EBPB
So shouldn’t he waste no time and go all out to make the AAP a viable national option? In this context, won’t Punjab weigh heavily on him? Yet before Punjab, elections are due also in Bihar later this year, and West Bengal next year.
The question thus arises that being a shrewd tactician, shouldn’t he strike while the iron is still hot so as to expand the AAP’s base outside Delhi and in these poll going states?
Such a proposition though needs to be analysed carefully. In poll bound Bihar and West Bengal, the AAP rather finds itself in a piquant position considering that both, the ruling Trinamool Congress and the Opposition CPM in West Bengal, and Bihar’s ruling Janata Dal (United) and its ally the Rashtriya Janata Dal as well, had supported Kejriwal in Delhi. Hence, none of these parties had fielded its candidates in Delhi. Other reasons for the AAP to avoid these two states for the time being could well be that it has no base whatsoever there; and it has no time even given it just formed its government in Delhi.
However, none could deny that the AAP does seem to have a realistic chance of performing well when Punjab faces polls after two years but what comes in the way is the ambivalence that surrounds Kejriwal – He needs to chart a course for the AAP and at present he does not want to go beyond Delhi.
Does this imply that he wants the AAP to be seen as a regional party of Delhi like the Shiv Sena or the Telugu Desam Party? If so then this would be a drastic course correction on Kejriwal’s part considering that not very long ago, just about nine months ago, he had himself contested the Lok Sabha elections from Varanasi, while his party had contested the Lok Sabha elections in not less than 432 constituencies across the country.
Still, Kejriwal does have examples of regional parties before him who could never expand their bases beyond their respective states and whenever they tried, they at best could only emerge as fringe players. Examples galore– the Shiv Sena and the Nationalist Congress Party (both in Maharashtra), the Trinamool Congress (in West Bengal), the CPM (in West Bengal and Kerala), the Rashtriya Janata Dal and Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (in Bihar and Jharkhand), the Janata Dal (United) in Bihar, the Samajwadi Party, the Rashtriya Lok Dal and the Bahujan Samaj Party (in Uttar Pradesh), the Shiromani Akali Dal (in Punjab),the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagham and the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagham (both in Tamil Nadu), the Telugu Desam Party (in Andhra Pradesh), the Biju Janata Dal (in Odisha), …and so on.
A larger question that though merits an answer is that after having tasted blood in Delhi and sensing opportunity in Punjab, can Kejriwal remain contented? After all why should he remain confined to Delhi considering that the national capital is not even a full-fledged state and has just seven Lok Sabha seats?
In such a light, Punjab naturally appears the next big destination for the Broom in 2017. Reports suggest that there are enough indications that the party might even contest the ensuing assembly by-election for Dhuri assembly seat in Punjab which had fallen after the Congress’ Arvind Khanna resigned as MLA. In the last general elections, the AAP’s winning candidate from Sangrur, Bhagwant Mann, had a lead of about 33,800 votes in the Dhuri segment.
Nothing wrong if the AAP contests the by-election in Punjab. What though is required that Kejriwal clears the ambiguity over his comment that “I’m not going anywhere…”
As they say, a straight-talking politician may seem to be a contradiction in terms. But Kejriwal needs to speak out. And that won’t be taken as arrogance!
EBPB
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