Jharkhand: Political Scenario
November 6, 2014
elections.in
Political alignments are being worked out in the run up to the state elections in Jharkhand. The state has largely witnessed a battle involving the two national parties – the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Congress, as well as the state party Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM).
BJP and AJSU alliance
The ruling alliance of the JMM, the Congress and the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) has been broken on the poll eve. The BJP, that earlier decided to go all alone in the fray, has now reconsidered its decision and entered into a pre-poll tie-up with the local player and a former ally, the All Jharkhand Student Union (AJSU). In the 2009 state Assembly elections, BJP had won 18 seats and had 20.18 per cent vote share, the AJSU had bagged 5 seats and 5.72 per cent votes were polled in its favour. As per the new pact, the BJP has yielded eight seats to AJSU to contest out of the 81 Assembly seats. Another rather insignificant pact on the reserved tribal seat of Shikaripara that the BJP has made with its NDA partner, Ram Vilas Paswan's Lok Janshakti Party. The LJP has little presence in the state and Shikaripara has never been a BJP forte but the BJP can hope to leverage Paswan's influence among the Scheduled Castes and dalits in the state.
Babulal Marandi’s JVM Shakes Hands with TMC
Another alliance has been forged between the fringe players, the Jharkhand Vikas Morcha-Prajatantrik (JVM-P) of the former BJP strongman and the state’s first Chief Minister Babulal Marandi, and the Trinamool Congress (TMC). The JVM (P) had put up a splendid show in 2009, winning 11 of the 25 seats that it contested and in the process polled 8.99 per cent votes. The TMC, in comparison, had drawn a blank and polled just 0.93 per cent of the total votes. However, just before the general elections this year, it had managed to lure three legislators from the JMM and the Congress to its fold.
Political Turncoats Switching Sides
Yet again, political turncoats too are switching gears and the BJP appears the preferred destination followed by the JMM for most of them. Already the BJP had accommodated seven MLAs of the JVM (P) MLAs after the last general elections and thus far given tickets to three of them. Similarly two JMM ministers of the outgoing government too deserted their party, and are now contesting the fray on the Lotus symbol. A Congress MLA from the previous House is now a BJP candidate. Those who joined the JMM rank and are in the fray include an Independent MLA, a JVM (P) MLA and a TMC MLA of the previous House.
BJP: Bright Prospects in the 2014 Jharkhand Assembly Polls
The ongoing trend and posturing undoubtedly favours the BJP, a party that ruled Jharkhand for the longest period since its inception. The Lotus had done splendidly well in the General Elections earlier this year, winning 12 of the 14 seats from the state. In the process, it had led in 56 of the 81 Assembly segments and was a close second in 23 others. It had then polled 40.1 per cent of the total 65.1 per cent votes polled as against the Congress’s 13.3 per cent and the ruling JMM’s 12.1 per cent. In the process, the BJP led in 56 Assembly segments and was second in 23 such seats in the last General Elections.
Fractured Mandates have been the Bane of Jharkhand Politics
State elections though are a tricky proposition in a state that witnessed fractured mandates in both 2005 and 2009. In 2005, even though the Congress-led UPA alliance won 13 of Jharkhand’s 14 seats as against the state BJP’s just one, in the subsequent Assembly election held just after eight months, the BJP had emerged victorious in 30 of the 81 seats. The BJP had polled higher than the combined tally of the Congress and the JMM then! Similarly in 2009 general elections even as the BJP won eight of the 14 parliament seats in Jharkhand, in the subsequent Assembly elections just about six months later, it could win only 18 of the 81 seats.
Even Major Parties cannot Ignore Fringe Players
An interesting aspect of the Jharkhand politics is that it has always revolved around three major players – the Congress, the BJP and the JMM. However, fringe players including the Independents could never be ignored in view of the fractured verdicts for the parties in the elections.
Just consider that even the very first government of the state was a BJP-led minority government that needed the support of the fringe players for its survival. The first show of strength of these fringe players was in full view within three years of the formation of the state, when ministers from the erstwhile Samata Party and Vananchal Congress, that had been the part of the government, rebelled against Chief Minister Babulal Marandi in March 2003. Because of the pressure of these minnows, the BJP leadership had to replace Marandi with another tribal leader, Arjun Munda.
A sulking Marandi finally quit the BJP four years later to form his own Jharkhand Vikas Manch (Prajatantrik).
Madhu Koda: Rise of an Independent to CM’s Post
Time and again Independent fence sitters and fringe players have taken the government to hostage in a bid to cling to power even if it meant fall of governments. Take the example of Madhu Koda. He was a BJP minister in both Marandi and Munda governments till the first state elections but when the BJP denied him the ticket, he contested and won as an Independent in 2005 that saw a fractured verdict. He was back again as minister after a brief nine-day tenure of JMM’s Shibu Soren who had to step down as CM after failing to obtain the majority.
The BJP in its desperation to form the government, had yet again roped in Koda in the Munda cabinet. But Koda had his own plans. Despite being an Independent, he mustered the support of the United Progressive Alliance and usurped power on September 18, 2006. His almost two-year rule though, is considered a dark chapter of Jharkhand’s short history because of rampant corruption.
Jharkhand Political Scenario since 2009
The common factor in all the three governments since 2009 was the JMM while the BJP and the Congress assumed power turn by turn. First the BJP supported the Shibu Soren-led alliance in the state only to pull out of it on May 24, 2010 after the JMM chief ditched the saffron brigade and voted along with the UPA in a cut motion in Parliament. After a spell of Governor’s rule, on September 11, 2010, both the parties climbed down from their tough stance against each other and this time the JMM extended its support to a BJP-led government under Arjun Munda. But even this arrangement was shortlived as the JMM withdrew its support, alleging that the BJP had breached its promise of having the CM by rotation. The state yet again came under President’s rule till the JMM took the Congress’s support to form the government under Shibu’s son, Hemant Soren. This government has lasted till the elections.
Can the 2014 Assembly election results prevent this prolonged diabolical game of musical chair between the three key players of Jharkhand politics for the sake of stability and progress? The voters have the key!
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