When will Jammu and Kashmir Polls be held ?

By Deepak Parvatiyar

October 20, 2014

Anti-incumbency, coupled with a certain NaMo factor, resulted in the demolition of sitting governments in the Assembly polls in Maharashtra and Haryana.

The focus now shifts to the troubled Jammu & Kashmir where the Election Commission is yet to take a call on whether to hold elections in December or to defer it.

Election Commission to hold Elections as per schedule in J and K

The EC has the mandate to hold elections in the state before the six-year term of the 87-member J&K Assembly ends on January 19, 2015. If the EC fails to do so, Governor’sr ule would be imposed as per J&K’s Constitution.

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• About J and K Elections

There are at least three factors that presently must be weighing heavily on the Election Commission before taking a call on the election dates:

1. Winter snow in the Valley that makes mobility extremely difficult
2. The unprecedented September floods in the state by which still 12.5 lakh families are affected in view of slow pace of relief and rehabilitation works
3. Heavy cross-border firings that has caused displacement of over 30,000 people who lived in the border villages.

These compelling situations made the Chief Election Commissioner VS Sampath not just to rely on the report of his officers who toured the state, but to himself lead a Commission team to the Valley to have a first-hand take of the ground situation last week.  After the visit, while the CEC stressed the need for more deliberations on the contentious issue, what has been significant is his remark –”the state administration’s preparedness to hold elections is sufficient.”

He made this observation after meeting the principal secretaries of revenue and power development departments of the state government and this may not sound music to ears of the ruling National Conference in the state, which faces the anti- incumbency factor largely because of its inept handling of the floods in the state.  Chief Minister Omar Abdullah has already expressed his reservations over holding the state elections in December as still the “people are struggling to rebuild their life”, and even warned of a “zero percentage turnout” in the flood-ravaged Srinagar in case of a December election.

BJP prefers J&K Polls on Schedule

What is interesting is that barring the NC, all other political parties – national and regional – have this time shown a consensus for the December elections in the state and the reasons are obvious – to encash the anti-incumbency factor before it is too late.

A buoyant BJP, after its impressive show in Maharashtra and Haryana – where for the first time ever it is set to lead the states – seems only too eager to create yet another first by leading a government in J&K. It had already launched a mission 44+ in the state where the maximum that the BJP could secure in the 87-member House was a meagre 11 seats.

 There are reasons for its optimism:

• Narendra Modi had visited the state more than once in quick succession after becoming the prime minister, first to inaugurate the rail line between Udhampur and Katra – the gateway to the holy Vaishno Devi shrine. In his next visit in August, he addressed two public meetings in the Ladakh region and inaugurated two power projects in Leh and Kargil besides laying the foundation of a power transmission line to link Leh with Srinagar. He also visited the Siachen glaciers then.
• Modi was quick to visit the state again when the flood ravaged it in September and he announced  Rs 1000 crore package for the flood hit people. The BJP hopes for gains specifically in the respective 37 and 4 assembly segments of Jammu and Ladakh regions on account of the Centre’s massive rescue and relief operations during the floods.
• The Modi government’s tough stand against Pakistan’s violation of ceasefire and its decision to give a free hand to the armed forces to retaliate to firing by the Pakistani troops along the Line of Control and international border in the state too is perceived to result in electoral gains for the BJP in the state.
• A likely low turnout in the valley too suits the BJP as its voters are in Jammu and Ladakh. A low turnout would also mean split of votes between the NCP, the Congress, and the PDP in the valley to the BJP’s benefit.

Reports expectedly suggest that the Centre is of the view that rehabilitation and reconstruction work can go simultaneously with the polls. Even the Army has expressed its readiness to ensure safe elections in the state.

The technical aspects of holding the elections are almost complete. While a special revision of rolls in J&K is not mandatory and that the assembly polls can be held as per rolls used for the Lok Sabha poll; the final electoral rolls are prepared. Yet what seems a major problem is the damage of thousands of voter cards in the floods.

National Conference: Fighting for Survival

What is interesting though is that the other key players in the state politics including the Congress, which shared the power with the NC, and the People’s Democratic Party, too, are batting for a December election in the state.  Obviously both these parties now hope to gain particularly in the Valley where the public mood has perceptibly gone against the NC.

CM Omar is indeed fighting a grim battle for survival and his demand from the Centre of a special financial package of Rs 44,000 crore for rehabilitation of the flood affected people may be genuine but could be analysed as a last ditch effort to turn the table on the BJP-led union government. Yet, a practical challenge before the EC would be to ensure voting at the peak of winter in the difficult terrains of the state.

So, can the BJP spring a surprise in J&K as well? Or rather is the writing on the wall for Omar Abdullah? The ball though is in the EC’s court, right now.