BJP Finalised Seat Sharing With Allies
September 16, 2015
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This was one arduous task that the
Bharatiya Janata Party President Amit Shah accomplished with aplomb – seat
allocation between its alliance partners. It is significant that all the three
allies in the state represent the Dalits, Mahadalits and the OBCs. Of them,
while Ram Vilas Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party and Upendra Kushwaha’s Rashtriya
Lok Samata Party are already tested allies who had gained much of their
association with the BJP in the last Lok Sabha elections. It was crucial for
the BJP to tackle new entrant Jitan Ram Manjhi and to keep him within the NDA
fold. This was also important in view of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s thrust
on social engineering in Bihar – to expand the party’s social base by wooing
the Mahadalits and Yadavs towards the BJP.
The Manjhi factor was crucial for
the BJP to prop him to gain a foothold on the crucial 15 per cent Mahadalit
votes by pitching him against chief minister Nitish for allegedly “insulting”
the Mahadalits of the state following the unceremonious removal of Manjhi from
the CM’s chair by Nitish, which even forced Manjhi to quit JD(U).
Manjhi, thereafter, had indeed
become a prized catch for the NDA!
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Expectedly, Manjhi did resort to
hard bargaining before yielding. It was not an easy ride as reports suggest
that initially the BJP favoured only 15 seats to the HAM as against the
latter’s demand for 72 seats. In fact, even to increase the tally to 20 for HAM
meant paring down LJP and RLSP seats.
Considering that the upper caste
voters – the traditional BJP supporters – constitute only about 24 per cent of
the votes in Bihar, it was only imperative that these “backward” allies looked
for more teeth and bargained hard with the BJP for a lion’s share in the
National Democratic Alliance tickets.
While Ram Vilas Paswan’s had
demanded 74 seats for his Lok Janshakti Party, Upendra Kushwaha wanted 67 for
his Rashtriya Lok Samata Party and Jitan Ram Manjhi, 72 seats for his Hindustan
Awam Morcha. This had meant scope for only 30 seats for the BJP to contest in
the state assembly!
The deal finally concluded with
Paswan settling down with 40 seats, Kushwaha, 23 seats, and Manjhi, 20 seats.
However, Manjhi did score some brownie points as Shah agreed to offer the BJP
symbol of some JD(U) MLAs who had followed Manjhi out of Nitish’s camp.
It is in this view that it was
commendable that Shah managed to successfully sell his seat-sharing formula –
supposedly based on the performances of the NDA allies in the last general
elections,and successfully managed to secure 160 of the 243 tickets for the
BJP.
However, behind the façade of
“unanimity”, Manjhi and Paswan were often on a verbal duel over who had better
control over the Dalit and Mahadalit votes in the state.
The NDA’s preferential treatment to
Manjhi does have political implications. Veteran Paswan’s son Chirag, who now
assumes a central role in the father’s party, fired the first salvo stating
“…the formula agreed on during the negotiations was different. We just want the
same parameters to be applied in our case also.”
Even the RLSP doesn’t seem very
happy with the arrangement. It vented its grudge saying that the BJP’s decision
to announce its first list of 43 candidates on September 15,a day after the NDA
seat-sharing was decided, was “against the coalition dharma” because it claimed
the talks were still on about the distribution of seats among the NDA partners.
Reportedly, the RLSP wanted to contest a few seats among the 43 for which the
BJP announced its candidates.
It is interesting that except for
the BJP and the LJP, all other NDA constituents are first timers in Bihar
assembly elections.
Upendra Kushwaha, a prominent
backward leader and a former Nitish associate, launched the RLSP in 2013. It
bagged three Lok Sabha seats in the 2014 general elections and Kushwaha became
a minister of state in the BJP-led NDA government at the Centre. Another Nitish
associate Manjhi floated his HAM early this year only after he split the JD(U).
Ever since, he was bargaining hard with the BJP, which was desperate to get him
within the NDA fold to downgrade Nitish among the Mahadalits.
Paswan’s LJP had contested 75 but
won only three seats, securing in the process 21.78 per cent votes in the seats
it contested (overall 6.74 per cent) in the last state assembly elections in
Bihar in 2010. Yet, the party revived its fortunes in the 2014 Lok Sabha
elections when it won six seats – a gain of hundred per cent from the last
general elections, when it had failed to open its account.
The BJP, in comparison, had won 91
of the 102 seats it had contested then in alliance with Nitish’s JD(U) in 2010,
and had secured 39.56 per cent votes in the seats it had contested then
(overall 16.49 per cent). In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections too, the BJP
continued its impressive showing in the state by winning 22 seats – a gain of
10 seats.
TheManjhi and Kushwaha factors seem
to weigh heavy during this elections and so do the internal contradictions
among the NDA constituents. Reports suggest that LJP does not want some present
and former JD (U) MLAs who had deserted the LJP in the past, contesting on
HAM’s ticket. It has made it loud and clear and even written to the BJP
president that these MLAs including Narendra Singh and his two sons, who had
won in 2010 but had defected to HAM, should not be given tickets.
Paradoxically, the LJP even faces
revolt from within. Already its member of parliament from Vaishali, Rama
Kishore Singh has resigned from the party in protest against being sidelined on
the issue of seat sharing among the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) parties.
Singh had earned the sobriquet of a giant killer by defeating the Rashtriya
Janata Dal’s vice-president and five-time MP Raghuvansh Prasad Singh by around
one lakh votes in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections.
As for the BJP is concerned, it has
already denied seats to five sitting legislators in its first list of 43
candidates. The message is clear that the party wants horses for the courses.
The message has been received well by the other NDA constituents. As Manjhi
summed it up: “Our focus was to select winning candidates. We will fight as a
united force…”
So far so good. Rest depends on the
election outcome. Any doubt?
- See more at:
http://www.elections.in/blog/bjp-finalised-seat-sharing-with-allies/#sthash.6UdGaZfx.dpuf
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