West Bengal Civic Elections 2015 – who will win?
April 27, 2015
Although all pre-poll predictions favour Trinamool Congress to romp home comfortably in the West Bengal Civic Polls, including the 144-member Kolkata Municipal Corporation, all eyes are set on the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) given the recent inroads it has made in the West Bengal politics.
The civic bodies in West Bengal include 88 municipalities, two municipal corporations – Siliguri and Chandannagar – and the Taherpur notified area. The civic polls that were held on 25 April 2015, covering 18 districts of West Bengal, were marred by spates of violence that forced re-polling in 36 booths of five districts on 27 April 2015. The Kolkata Municipal Corporation (KMC) elections that were held on 18 April 2015 had also witnessed allegations of widespread electoral violence and irregularities from the Opposition.
The Kolkata Municipal Corporation elections, along with the elections for the 91 civic bodies in West Bengal, are being touted as a ‘semi-final’ before the 2016 state assembly elections. Whether the BJP can emerge a credible second in the civic elections is the question in everyone’s mind. That would mean a further setback to the already wilting ship of the Left in West Bengal, which once, not long ago, was considered its citadel. The Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPI (M)) still seems jaded after its humiliating defeats in the state in the recent times. In last year’s Lok Sabha elections, all that the CPI (M) could win were two of the 42 seats in the state – a loss of 13 seats. The BJP, by winning an equal number of seats, had gained one seat then.
In the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP had led in 37 wards, beaten the TMC in 23 wards and had come second in as many as 70 others in the Kolkata Municipal Corporation. In the state, it had led in 24 assembly segments, including the Bhawanipur seat, which is currently held by West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee.
Going by the results of last year’s Lok Sabha election, the BJP was almost neck and neck with the CPI (M), which had then led in 29 assembly segments. The BJP further consolidated its position in the following assembly by-elections in September by winning the Basirhat Dakshin seat in Kolkata to open its account in the 294-member West Bengal legislature and coming to a close second at Chowringhee. This was only the second time when the BJP had won a seat in the state assembly.
A good performance in the civic polls of West Bengal will boost the BJP’s confidence for a better show in the following year’s state elections not just in West Bengal but also in Bihar, where it faces a united opposition after the coming together of the Janata Dal (United) and the Rashtriya Janata Dal.
In West Bengal, the TMC leaders though discount the Lotus’s prospects and consider the erstwhile rulers, the CPI (M), to come a distant second. What is significant is that not many are giving Congress much chance as the party’s declination seems to continue in the state as it has been throughout the country lately. Just before the civic elections, the party got a jolt when Senior Councillor Mala Roy, who was a bitter critic of the TMC leader and Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, left the party to join the TMC. In the Lok Sabha elections though, even as it had failed to retain two seats, it had won four and was ahead of the BJP as well as the CPI (M). However, Congress’ vote share was just 9.7 percent as compared to the TMC’s 39.8 percent (The TMC had won 34 seats – a gain of 15 LS seats). The CPI (M)’S vote share was 23 percent, while the BJP’s vote share was 17 percent.
As for the TMC, it won 95 of the 144 seats in the Kolkata Municipal Corporation compared to what it had won in 2010, 33 of the then 81 civic bodies, while the BJP had then won none. The TMC, thereafter, also swept the Panchayat polls, winning the Zila Parishads (District Councils) in 13 out of the 17 districts in 2013.
Much water has flown down the Hooghly since then. The Lotus has bloomed at the Centre and ever since has been trying to spread its roots to the Bengali heartland. The party’s membership drive has resulted in crossing the 10-lakh mark in West Bengal.
In fact, since winning the last general elections, the BJP has begun preparations for the West Bengal civic elections. On 19 May last year, its State-Unit President Rahul Sinha announced about this preparation. Since then, West Bengal has been figured prominently in the tour itinerary of the BJP President Amit Shah, who sounded the poll bugle claiming that the BJP would remove the Trinamool from power in the state in the coming days.
But can he dislodge Mamata so easily?
Pre-poll surveys suggest that Mamata is firmly placed. In Kolkata, they predict that she is slated to win over 100 seats. And that too despite the Narendra Modi wave that the BJP leaders claim to be still existing and the various scams that are being associated with her. Mamata recently took a dig at the Lotus and said, “Since the BJP could not fight her politically, they are using tricks like the CBI and the ED (Enforcement Directorate)”.
The BJP claims that the party has established a support base among both the lower-middle class and the middle class of the city and that support is also coming to it from people from academic, cultural as well as service sector backgrounds.
Yet what is interesting is the CPI (M)’s allegations that both the TMC and the BJP were into a “secret understanding” and that the “delayed and inadequate sanctioning of central forces for the recent municipal polls was an indicator of the covert links”.
Violence during the elections in Kolkata and elsewhere in the state, wherein some lives were also lost, has been a trait of West Bengal elections. The opposition, including the BJP and the Congress, besides the Left, has accused the TMC of rigging. The Left has called for a 12-hour general strike in West Bengal on 30 April 2015 to protest against the “destruction of democracy” by the ruling TMC in the recent civic polls.
Doesn’t this indicate that the TMC is a winner and that the Left is desperate to hold ground lest the BJP takes over? All the eyes are on the BJP though
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