SAARC Summit: the Same Old Story
November 28, 2014
Ever since the first summit of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) was held in Dhaka, Bangladesh on 8th December 1985, SAARC has failed to live up to the high expectations that it had generated for a regional political and economical cooperation in South Asia.
The forum’s contribution has been dismal largely because of the tense Indo-Pak relationship in the region. Despite the free trade pact of 2006 between the eight member nations – India, Pakistan, Nepal, Bhutan, Afghanistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and the Maldives – the member nations do hardly five percent of their total trade with each other!
The Kathmandu SAARC Summit: Low on Deliverance
The 18th SAARC meet in Kathmandu, held after a gap of three years, too was not much different in terms of deliverance and agreement as just one of the three issues tabled there could be reached because of Pakistan’s veto. (A consensus among the member countries is crucial for any resolution to be adopted at SAARC). Even the pact on energy cooperation and to create a regional electricity grid could be clinched at the very last moment. That proved to be a face saver for the summit.
The agreements on the other two issues – road connectivity and railways – could not materialise as Pakistan blocked them on grounds that its internal processes were not complete. This was despite the fact that Nepal, as chair, tried its best to convince Islamabad to sign the pacts that were initiated by India and were tabled through the SAARC secretariat.
Yet, facing political unrest at home as well as the American pressure to check Pakistan’s terror factories, the beleaguered Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif rather chose to deflect such issues by playing his anti-India card in a desperate bid to address his constituency back home.
Pakistan’s Anti-India Stance was too Evident
SAARC was yet another such platform for Islamabad to internationalise Kashmir after there were no takers for Sharif’s Kashmir rant at the United Nations General Assembly, where he got a befitting reply by his Indian counterpart, Narendra Modi, in September this year. He had further lost his face as Indian troops retaliated aggressively to Islamabad’s violation of ceasefire at LoC in Jammu & Kashmir. Just on the eve of the summit, the Pakistani Prime Minister was further snubbed by the US President Barack Obama when he sought his intervention on the Kashmir issue during his scheduled visit to New Delhi as chief guest for the Republic Day celebrations.
Sharif’s desperation was evident in Kathmandu too, where he tried to pit China against India by becoming a willing lobbyist for Beijing that wants to be a member of the SAARC. As a balancing act, he also named South Korea to be included as a member. (Both China and South Korea are among the eight countries and an inter-governmental organisation (the European Union) which are associated with SAARC as Observers)
This was a deft tactical shift by Pakistan. By bulldozing agreements on one hand, and by playing up China on the other, it did try corner India as it is well aware that the summit’s failures could boost prospects of China’s entry into the grouping. Beijing’s announcement to spend $30 billion for road building in South Asia over five years, and its suggestion to increase trade to $150 billion over this period, does seem a smart ploy to marginalise the influence of India in the grouping.
It may be recalled that in July 2012, China had influenced Cambodia, where it had invested heavily, to ensure that for the first time in its 45-year history, ASEAN’s foreign ministers failed to issue a joint communiqué because of an internal conflict particularly between the chair, Cambodia, and the Philippines, which had sought ASEAN’s support in its rejection of Chinese ‘creeping assertiveness’.
Indeed Pakistan tried to enact a Cambodia in Nepal and initially seemed successful in its ploy when Sri Lankan President Mahinda Rajapaksa, Maldives President Abdulla Yameen Abdul Gayoom, and Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina too seemed inclined towards engaging observers for capacity building.
India Tried to Foil Pakistan’s Attempts to play Spoilsport
However, an alert India had already made its opposition to any horizontal expansion of SAARC in a SAARC foreign ministry-level meeting on 25th November and instead emphasised on strengthening the SAARC foundation. In course of the Summit, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, subtly pre-empted Pakistan’s attempts to play spoilsport by firmly emphasising on enhancing bilateral cooperation irrespective of the SAARC summit outcome — “we will move to enhance our bonds with South Asia together if we can, if not with those who are ready for it”.
The SAARC summit coincided with elections in Jammu & Kashmir and India had the additional challenge of thwarting any Pakistani bid to raise the ‘K’ word from its platform. Sharif’s ploy was ostensibly to instigate New Delhi. Just before leaving for the summit, his remarks that “Before dialogue with India, I have decided to engage with Kashmiri leaders,” was a calculated ploy to evoke sentiments in India.
India made Pakistan Isolated on Terror
Even as the Summit talks were on, Pakistani infiltrators were engaged in fierce gun battle in Jammu’s Arnia sector. In fact the Summit had opened on the anniversary of the 26/11 terror attacks in Mumbai. While India has been pressing Pakistan for a speedy trial of the 26/11 accused, Modi did raise the issue in his address and called for a pledge to combat terror and trans-national crimes. Sharif, on his part, refrained from speaking about terror.
Obviously the tension was palpable. Any ‘structured’ meeting between two South Asian leaders was not in the agenda. Both leaders ignored each other till the very last during the summit and shook hands only at the dying hours – a welcome move by Modi to acknowledge the effort of the chair, Nepal, which played the role of a peacemaker between the two.
Yet, the biggest success for India was to get Pakistan isolated in SAARC on the terror issue. While Afghan President Ashraf Ghani made a veiled reference to Pakistan as he spoke about the need to ensure that state actors did not embrace non state actors responsible for terrorism, the Bhutan PM Tshering Tobgay too raised the issue of terrorism.
Obviously, given his failure again – whether in his attempt to bulldoze SAARC, or to corner India – Sharif will be required to do a lot of explaining in Islamabad. He should be better prepared for that.
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