Delhi Polls: Do-or-die Battle for AAP
November 19, 2014
Can the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) spring a surprise again in Delhi? Miracles don’t happen always but none can be completely written off in politics either. Yet, the political greenhorn’s fall has been as quick as its rise in the political firmament of the country!
Delhi Assembly Elections: Survival at Stake
Today it has been a battle for survival for the AAP. The party chief Arvind Kejriwal realises it well. Ever since its unexpected victory in the Delhi assembly elections in December last year, the AAP’s fortunes have dipped drastically. That the Delhi voters did not appreciate his decision to quit as the chief minister within 49 days was evident in the April-May General Elections where the AAP drew a blank in the city-state. An ‘unforgiving’ Delhi did instead vote for the BJP which obtained over 50 per cent votes in the national capital and emerged victorious in an incredible 60 Assembly segments while the AAP could lead only in the remaining 10 assembly segments.
What a fall it has been for the AAP since December 2013 assembly elections when it had won 28 seats which were 20 more than the Congress and just four short of the BJP’s 32 seats. Perhaps the only satisfaction for the AAP could well be that it was still the number two party in Delhi with an overall vote share of 32.9 per cent in the parliamentary elections.(The Congress had failed to lead in any of the 70 Assembly segments of Delhi then).
Can Arvind Kejriwal’s AAP Stage a Comeback?
If at all Kejriwal thought of re-writing the political codes with his Lokpal rhetoric, he failed miserably. So can he bounce back in Delhi?
He does seem desperate. How much Delhi Assembly elections are important to the AAP is also evident by the fact that it skipped the Assembly elections in Maharashtra and Haryana to concentrate on the city state that had given it an identity.
(Kejriwal, in the process, even earned the ire of the ticket hopefuls in Haryana who had fancied their chances in the wake of the strong anti-incumbency against the ruling Congress. Yet, he preferred to yield the space to the BJP in order to pull all his resources in Delhi).
Undoubtedly Kejriwal has been focussing hard on Delhi ever since the debacle in the Lok Sabha elections. Gone are his claims that the “party itself is not important”. He has reverted to the basics, trying to consolidate the party base by setting up its youth and women wings.
But are these measures enough for a party which itself has to be blamed for enforcing an early election on Delhi?
Kejriwal has not Made Smart Moves so far
Much to the AAP’s dismay, all of Kejriwal’s moves after the surprise success of the party in the Delhi assembly elections in December last year have proved disastrous – leading to many deserting his party and an equal number doubting his organisational capacity. Just consider:
• His decision to form the government in Delhi with the outside support of the Congress – that he had described as the fountainhead of corruption – considerably weakened his stand on corruption.
• His decision to pull a Houdini earned him the sobriquet, ‘bhagora’ – one who runs away from responsibilities. • His decision to field 432 candidates in the April-May Lok Sabha elections without any organisational strength and cadre network, projected him to be as an impulsive man in inexplicable hurry.
• Finally his decision to contest against the BJP’s formidable candidate Narendra Modi, cost his party a potential member of Parliament.
Obviously the biggest test of Kejriwal’s leadership qualities would be in the ensuing Delhi elections. It is a make or break for him even on a personal level. The biggest challenge before the state elections for him though is to get rid of the ‘bhagora’ stigma that has stuck to him and proved disastrous to his party at the General Elections.
Kejriwal says he has learnt his lessons and recently told an interviewer that “I will never resign again”. The AAP’s poll anthem “5 Saal Kejriwal” (loosely translated Kejriwal for the next five years), rather appears a belated damage control exercise though. How can it reassure the Delhi voter remains to be seen.
AAP too now Luring Voters with Sops
Given that corruption is no more a clinching issue, even AAP has to tone down its image of a crusader and join the bandwagon of other political parties to promise voters the moon. Jan Lokpal has now given way to development.
The thrust is now to lure the youth voters with promises such as creation of 8 lakh jobs and employment-oriented training of 10 lakh youth in the next five years; providing loans at nominal rates for young entrepreneurs; building 20 new colleges; doubling seats in 70 existing colleges; making Delhi a free Wi-Fi zone; providing better sports infrastructure … and so on.
Indeed it has been a tough time for the AAP in the face of a surging BJP that has already tasted blood not just in the Lok Sabha elections but also in the subsequent Assembly elections in Maharashtra and Haryana.
To its benefit, AAP has started its campaign early in Delhi by organising rallies and public meetings called the ‘Delhi Dialogues’.
But can Kejriwal finally score a victory over Modi? Surprises do galore in politics but it can indeed hope to emerge second as it did in the last Assembly as well as the General Elections in Delhi – at the cost of the Congress. It is now or never for the political greenhorn!
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