Maharashtra Assembly Elections : Through the Years

By Deepak Parvatiyar

October 18, 2014

Maharashtra politics in the last three decades invariably revolved around Sharad Pawar and late Bal Thackeray — indisputably the two tallest leaders of Maharashtra politics in recent times. Some other prominent leaders of the era such as the Bharatiya Janata Party’s late Pramod Mahajan and Gopinath Munde were more active as a conduit between the BJP and Thackeray while Sushil Kumar Shinde, late Vilasrao Deshmukh and late Sudhakarrao Naik (all former chief ministers of the state) were largely seen as quintessential Pawar baiters in the Congress!

Sharad Pawar and Bal Thackeray : Two Pillars of Maharashtra Politics

Pawar was once even considered a strong contender for the prime minister’s post in the early ‘90s while Thackeray remained the uncrowned king of Bombay (now Mumbai). Yet unlike Pawar, the latter personally remained away from electoral politics despite floating his right-wing political outfit, the Shiv Sena in the 1960s.

There had been many similarities between Pawar and Thackeray and both shared a good personal equation as well despite being political rivals. Both catered to the Maratha pride; floated their political outfits and remained a force to reckon with in national politics. Both patronised family politics and promoted their respective daughter (Supriya Sule) and son (Uddhav Thackeray) and nephews as well (Ajit Pawar and Raj Thackeray) in politics!

It won’t be an exaggeration though to term Pawar more ambitious than Thackeray whose politics remained Maharashtra-centric.

Pawar : Rebellious and Ambitious

Pawar remains a rebel Congressman at heart. At 38, he became the youngest CM of Maharashtra after breaking away from the Congress to form a coalition with the Janata Party in 1978. Yet his Progressive Democratic Front government was dismissed in February 1980, when the Congress (Indira) returned to power under Indira Gandhi at the Centre.

Pawar became the President of the Congress (Socialist) in 1981 and led his party to wins in 54 of the 288 assembly seats in the 1985 state elections to himself assume the role of the leader of the Opposition in the state Assembly. He rejoined the Congress (I) in 1987 as he saw “the need to save the Congress Culture in Maharashtra”, in the wake of a rising Shiv Sena! He soon reassumed the CM’s position after the induction of the then CM, Shankarrao Chavan, in the Union Cabinet by the then PM Rajiv Gandhi in 1988. Pawar had the task cut out for him to check the rise of Thackeray in state politics and in the 1989 Lok Sabha elections, he did ensure Congress’s victory in 28 of the 48 seats in the state. Yet he could manage a Congress victory by a whisker in the 1990 assembly elections where the Congress could win just 141 of the 288 seats and just fell short of absolute majority in the face of stiff challenge from the SS-BJP combine. Pawar managed to muster up the support of 12 independent MLAs to become the CM for the third time on 4 March 1990.

Maharashtra Politics: Contest between Rightists and Centrists

Following the assassination of Rajiv Gandhi in course of the 1991 general elections, Pawar emerged as a leading contender for the PM’s post but finally lost the race to another Congress leader PV Narasimha Rao. Ever since, his focus shifted to New Delhi though in between, he did return to state politics as CM from 1993 to 1995 when eventually the Congress lost the state assembly elections to the SS-BJP combine.
Ever since, Maharashtra elections have largely remained a keen contest between the Rightists and the Centrists with little space for the Left parties. Pawar has remained the driving force of the Centristpolitics in Maharashtra. His discomfiture with the Gandhis resulted in his breaking away from the Congress once again and this time he set up the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) in 1999.

In the 1999 state assembly elections though the Congress and NCP fought separately and got 75 and 58 seats respectively, they were compelled to go for a post poll alliance to prevent formation of a National Democratic Alliance government. The NDA comprising the SS and the BJP had then bagged 125 seats (Shiv Sena 69 and BJP 56). But with the help of Independents, the Congress-NCP alliance formed their first government in state – an alliance that was to return to power in the successive state elections in 2004 and 2009.

The 2004 state election was a triumph of Pawar as his NCP emerged from the shadow of the Congress and bagged 71 seats as against 69 that were won by its alliance partner, the Congress. Yet, the NCP – a key component of the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance at the Centre, let go the CM’s post to the Congress in bargain of some key portfolios for its members in the state. Together the alliance had bagged 141 seats in the 288 member House and yet again it needed the support of Independents to form the government. The performance of the NDA had further slumped as it could win just 117 seats (SS – 62, BJP – 54 and the Swatantra Bharat Paksh – 1).

Yet the worst was yet to come for the SS-BJP alliance and in the 2009 assembly elections where together they could get just 89 seats. Incidentally this was the first time that the BJP with 46 seats had done better than the Sena (45). Perhaps the writing was on the wall now and in 2014 both the parties finally parted ways ahead of the assembly elections. As for the Congress-NCP alliance, it did hit the halfway mark of 145 with the Congress scoring 83 and the NCP, 62. This was the election when many smaller parties too opened their accounts – prominently among them the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) of Thackeray’s nephew Raj, that got 12 seats. Even the Samajwadi Party and the Peasants and Workers Party could get four seats each then. Yet a large chunk was grabbed by Independents who not just got 15percent of the total vote share but also bagged 24 seats.

It is interesting that despite all the clout that Thackeray wielded in Maharashtra politics, he always required the support of the BJP to remain a formidable force in the state as well as national politics. The only time that the Sena could to form its government in the state was in alliance with the BJP in 1995. Its best ever tally in the state elections has been 73 that it secured in 1995. The party still struggles to make a strong rural presence in the state. The BJP, on the other hand, always piggybacked on Sena and even its best showing at the state assembly elections in Maharashtra was of 65 seats that it could win in 1995.

2014 Maharashtra Assembly Polls : Changing Equations

Political fortunes though have changed dramatically in 2014 with the BJP, riding a crest following its stupendous performance in the recent general elections, on an overdrive. It snapped its 25 year old ties with the Sena to go all alone in the state elections for the first time. The sagging fortunes of the Congress have resulted in Pawar leaving the alliance. Therefore, this has been the first time in recent memory that the state witnesses a five cornered contest. The BJP and the NCP bank on the charisma of their respective leaders – Narendra Modi and Sharad Pawar — to romp them home. But can Bal Thackeray’s son and successor Uddhav and scion of the Gandhi family Rahul Gandhi turn the tide for their respective parties – the Sena and the Congress – in the state. It would be worth to watch.