Ceasefire Violations : Outcome of Pakistan’s Political Compulsions

By Deepak Parvatiyar

October 13, 2014

Peace and war are political decisions! When the guns are blazing, it does make sense to play politics as politicians are quite adept at whipping up passion and build up frenzy with their sonorous jingoism.  This global trend is grimly more pronounced in the Indian subcontinent.

The confrontation in Kashmir after weeks of destabilising anti-government protests in Pakistan may be interpreted as a diversionary tactic by a desperate Nawaz Sharif. Yet, in his desperation, he discounted the fact that cross border terrorism plays crucial role in Indo-Pak relations particularly since the Mumbai terrorist attack of November 2008.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi has exposed Sharif’s misadventure to showcase India’s befitting reply to Pakistan’s advances particularly before the voters in Haryana and Maharashtra that go to Assembly polls on 15th October and where he is the BJP’s star campaigner. Its impact could be felt even in the ensuing state elections including that in J&K and Jharkhand.

Pakistan’s Internal Dynamics

The situation is rather more complex in Islamabad and many analysts attribute the flare up of the clashes between the two forces at J&K as the handiwork of the Pakistan Army to reassert its supremacy over the political establishment there.

Sharif does feel the heat back home also because of his flop show at last month’s United Nations General Assembly where there were no takers for his renewed demand for a plebiscite in J&K. He was publicly snubbed by Modi who met premiers from Bangladesh, Nepal and Sri Lanka but avoided the Pak Prime Minister in New York.
Hence, wasn’t engaging the Indian armed forces at the border a seemingly better option for Sharif to provide the Pakistani Army a perceived sense of supremacy on one hand, and to sustain the International community’s interest in Srinagar on the other hand?

The ‘K’ word has always been a time tested panacea to turmoil in Pakistan and caters to a vast political constituency there!  Any such flare up and Pakistan is quick to invoke the Nuclear power status of the two uncomfortable neighbours to grab the attention of the world. So, did it surprise anyone when this time too, Pakistani defence minister Khawaja Mohammad Asif sought to remind the world about the nuclear capabilities of the two nations while on a tour of Washington?

Yet was it a wise ploy to offend India when Sharif grappled with the civil-military issues at home including heavy engagement of his armed forces in the troubled North Waziristan?

Paksitan’s Blame Game

Pakistan claims it only responded to unprovoked firings by the Indian troops and Pakistani Major General Khan Tahir Javed Khan, told news agency Reuters that India had fired 20,000 shells so far this year, compared to just 200 in 2012.
But wasn’t it rather easy for Pakistan to shift the blame of aggression on the Modi government under the pretext that India violated the ceasefire for domestic reasons to benefit the ruling BJP in the ensuing state Assembly elections in Haryana , Maharashtra, Jharkhand and J&K?

This time indeed, Islamabad erred badly in its calculations :

1)      It crassly underestimated the bilateral fallout of the meetings between its High Commissioner and the J&K Hurriyat leaders in New Delhi despite India’s objection in August this year.
2)      It undermined the impact of the India’s cancellation of the foreign secretary levels dialogues with Pakistan. It would have been the first bilateral opening at that level since September 2012.
3)      Its unprovoked firing along the Line of Control in J&K resulting in deaths of many civilians on the Indian side of Kashmir, raked up by the J&K chief minister Omar Abdullah, exposed the Pakistan’s sinister design before the international community. That indeed proved to be Pakistan’s Achilles’ heel as Indian forces were quick to launch a fierce counter offensive that rattled Islamabad.

India’s Befitting Reply to Pakistan’s Aggression

Unlike in the past when India preferred to ignore Pakistan’s provocations, the retaliation by New Delhi this time has made the Pakistani forces scurry for cover. Islamabad’s persistence for the third party mediation on Kashmir too has come a cropper like before. It did lodge a protest with the UN Military Observer Group (UNMOGIP) over “unprovoked Indian firing” but India made a strong case at the 21st Plenary meeting of the UN General Assembly that the “onus of creating a positive environment is on Pakistan which is utterly failing to do so”.

Obviously Pakistan’s position is even more precarious now as it finds itself just not only isolated on the ‘K’ issue internationally, but also finds difficult to counter the charges of India that it violated ceasefire to ensure terrorists’ infiltration into J&K.

Already the onus is on Islamabad to prove before the world that its fight against terrorism is inclusive of all militant groups operating from its soil. These include terror and criminal networks like Lashkar-e-Taiba (now operating under the name of Jamat-ud-Dawa), Jaish-e-Mohamed, Al-Qaeda, Haqqani network and very significantly the D-company (of India’s most wanted criminal Dawood Ibrahim who has made Pakistan his base).

That Pakistan is growingly being marginalised for patronising terror has been further evident by the recent agreement between India and the USA to dismantle the above terror networks through “joint and concerted efforts”.
This is the first major fighting with Pakistan that Modi has dealt with since taking office in May this year. He has been telling the crowds about India’s befitting reply to Pakistan’s misadventure in his numerous election rallies in Haryana and Maharashtra and he even hopes to pull a coupe in J&K where he has given the slogan “Mission 44+” for the BJP for the 87-member Assembly.  (The highest that the BJP’s could secure in the state though was 11. But the BJP hopes to win mostly in Jammu on account of the Centre’s massive rescue and relief operations when unprecedented floods inundated the valley this monsoon).

Obviously, unlike Sharif, who now begs India not to misunderstand his desire for peace, Modi has rather made the Pak PM play into his hands. After all, hasn’t he deftly paid Pakistan back in its own coin?

The sad part though is that the skirmishes have yet again exposed the volatility of the Indo-Pak relationship.