AAP Not Contesting Haryana Polls: Will it backfire?
August 4, 2014
http://www.elections.in/blog/aap-not-contesting-haryana-polls-will-it-backfire/
What a fall it has been for the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) which had only recently marched aggressively to ‘capture’ Delhi by fielding 432 candidates in the Lok Sabha elections! The move of the political greenhorns came up cropper as the party could win only four seats and its candidate could save their deposit in barely 19 seats.
Obviously, the disappointment at the general elections has proved to be rather disastrous for the AAP, which now has withdrawn from contesting even the state elections in Haryana – the native state of at least two of the AAP stalwarts – part chief Arvind Kejriwal and ideologue Yogendra Yadav.
Fortunes have drastically dwindled for the Broom. Isn’t it true that Kejriwal was even projected to be the next prime minister of the country? That the suave Yadav was considered the Chanakya of contemporary politics?
How decisions change one’s destiny! Yadav and Kejriwal are the classic examples. Their political gambles failed miserably to yield desired results. Both of them lost their electoral battles – Yadav lost even his security deposit in his home turf Gurgaon, while Kejriwal fared a little better before losing in a distant Varanasi against a formidable Narendra Modi.
So, is it a more sensible decision to reclaim the lost ground first than to take part in the Haryana state elections? Or does it smack of short sightedness?
On the surface, it appears a wise decision for the AAP leadership to rework on its core constituencies than to explore untested territories. Yet, the decision of pulling out has not gone down well with party leaders in Haryana who felt the anti-incumbency against the state Congress government could have been an opportune time for the AAP to capitalise on. Yogendra Yadav, in charge of the Haryana unit, seems upset over the party’s decision as 95 per cent of the volunteers were in favour of contesting the polls. He said that AAP couldn’t afford to leave the ground after joining the election fray.
Once Bitten Twice Shy Approach
Indeed, the proverb ‘once bitten twice shy’ applies well to the changing strategies of AAP. Yet the move also exposes Yadav’s failing clout in the party. Indeed, after the poor show of the party in the general elections, he had squarely blamed Kejriwal’s methods and even quit before being placated back to the party fold. The present imbroglio suggests the party still has a lot of home work to do to become a formidable political force again.
Much to its discomfort, the Delhi state elections are tantalisingly far at the moment and a flop show in Delhi – perceived its stronghold after its unexpected electoral win in last year’s state elections — could well spell the death knell to the party.
Obviously all these political developments – directly proportional to AAP’s fortunes — have once again shifted the focus back on Kejriwal. The maverick leader is already being tested by the BJP – now firmly on the saddle at the Centre, in the game of political one-upmanship. Much to Kejriwal’s chagrin, the Lieutenant Governor of the city state has not yet given green signal for fresh elections in Delhi. Peeved by the delay – which will only harm the AAP as it would further demoralise its cadres – Kejriwal is back to his unconventional ways. On Sunday, he asked the Centre and Lt Governor of Delhi as well as the BJP to dissolve the Delhi House (which is under suspended animation ever since Kejriwal stepped down as CM), or face agitation.
Arvind Kejriwal’s Desperation
Kejriwal seems desperate. His moves reflect so. He demands dissolution of the House (He had moved the Supreme Court too earlier challenging the move to keep the Delhi Assemby in suspended animation), yet he even once reportedly considered a fresh alliance with the Congress to form the government in Delhi after his party’s debacle in the general election.
This flip-flop has cost him his credibility. One may blame it to his political naiveté. But he needs to realise that not long ago, he was considered the biggest hope for the common man and AAP was perceived to be a game changer in Indian politics. His rise was dramatic and symbolic of the aspirations of the common man. This is the space that he needs to develop.
His just one decision in haste of quitting as the Chief Minister of Delhi turned out to be his nemesis. Today, he is struggling for his very own political survival and AAP faces the prospect of disintegration! The donations to it have already dried considerably. In the last fortnight, the maximum that the party could get as donation on a single day was a measly Rs 24,552.
Can Kejriwal’s decision of withdrawing from Haryana state elections further damage his party’s credentials? How can he be sure of repeating last year’s performance in Delhi even when none of his party’s Lok Sabha candidates could win here? Analysts wonder whether – for saving his own turf – Kejriwal can afford to damage AAP’s prospects in Haryana.
Can AAP Win Delhi, Skipping Haryana Polls?
What if the AAP, despite its concentration in Delhi, fails to return to power in the state?
Kejriwal’s story thus far is that of a shooting star and indeed there is a pun intended here. We can easily blame his stars for his meteoric rise and fall in politics. But why only blame the stars? Can’t we blame his soaring ambitions and over confidence for his fall from the summit?
How else would one explain the peculiar phenomenon of Kejriwal?
Yet a larger question is that can we so easily write-off Kejriwal?
Politics is the art of the possible. We have seen politicians rise like phoenix in the past. Yogendra Yadav would definitely agree that Kejriwal’s rise and fall is nothing short of a miracle. Can he repeat miracles again? AAP cadres must be hoping so. But wait till the Delhi elections.
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