John Kerry’s India visit: paving the way for Modi’s US visit
July 29, 2014
There is more to the US Secretary of State John Kerry’s visit to New Delhi than meets the eye. The visit is definitely meant to set up the base for Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s forthcoming US visit in September this year on an invitation from President Barrack Obama. But can Kerry succeed in setting the tone for Modi’s visit?
Modi was banned from travelling to the United States under the International Religious Freedom Act (after the Gujarat riots of 2002). He was continuously denied the US visa since 2005, when the US government had patently rejected the Indian foreign ministry’s request to reconsider its arbitrary decision.From Pariah to PM
Time has taken a full circle now and nothing can be more exciting than Narendra Modi’s visit to the USA. Today, as India’s PM, he is expected to take forward the Indo-US relations to new levels, in a curious twist of irony!
Given the ill-treatment at the hands of the USA, analysts in the US fear that Modi could well be a hard person to be bullied or placated by Washington. Influential Republican senator John McCain, who had met Modi in India, recently, even questioned whether the USA had any ‘strategic agenda’ for India or not at a Congressional hearing earlier this month.
US on an Overdrive
There is no surprise, therefore, that the USA seems to be over-zealous to mend fences with India’s new leadership. As part of this relation building exercise, Kerry, just before his arrival in India, made a significant remark that the USA would want to support Modi’s “great vision” of ‘sabka saath, sab ka vikas’ (collective efforts, inclusive growth). It is also significant that Kerry returned to India for the annual strategic dialogue even as it was the turn of Washington this year to host the annual fixture hosted alternatively by the two countries – a significant move by Uncle Sam to reach out to the Indian Prime Minister.
Modi’s public statement that “relations between the two countries cannot be determined or be even remotely influenced by incidents related to individuals,” may sound sweet music to Kerry’s ears. Yet, the Bharatiya Janata Party’s landslide victory at the General Elections 2014 has continued to unsettle Washington on more than one count. Critics of the Obama administration have now got an opportunity to question its “unprofessional way” of dealing with India.
The American media is constantly writing about the way the Modi government has proceeded to “challenge the Western dominance of world affairs”. One of the first steps of Modi on the world stage since assuming charge was to sign up to a BRICS Development Bank to counter the US and Europe dominated global financial institutions. Modi’s role in the powerful BRICS block of five emerging economies, where India conceded the Chinese demand of making Shanghai the headquarters of the BRICS Bank and the BRICS support to Russian President Putin, facing Western sanctions, are pointers to this.
Much to the USA’s chagrin, India has also resisted the Trade Facilitation Agreement – that was agreed at the Bali meet of the WTO’s first ever global trade agreement last December, on grounds that it did not meet its food security concerns and sought to postpone the TF Protocol till a permanent solution on public stockholding for food security is found. It has further demanded that a permanent WTO deal on food stockpiling must be in place by the end of 2014, not by 2017 as previously agreed. The Indian decision jolted Washington which had expected diplomats from the 160 WTO member countries meeting in Geneva to rubber stamp a deal on “trade facilitation”. The US now fears that the Indian stand on the issue could “derail” the whole process of world trade liberalisation. It is no coincidence that the deadline for agreeing on the TF deal falls during Kerry’s sojourn in New Delhi and a failure to overcome India’s objections could overshadow his visit.
Pragmatic Approach – Need of the Hour
International diplomacy is guided by pragmatism. Modern-day diplomacy also demands old fashioned personal bonding between the leaders. Kerry needs to play an important role in facilitating a better chemistry between Obama and Modi when the two leaders meet in September for any realistic hope for addressing the American business and strategic concerns – whether progress on big defence projects, or removing obstacles to US firms’ participation in India’s nuclear power industry. India under Modi has already scuttled the hopes of the entry of US giant Walmart with no green signal so far to Foreign Direct Investment in multi-brand retail. In his government’s first budget too, he overlooked the US aspirations for a relaxed ownership limits in the defence sector that could allow US firms controlling stake in joint ventures. Obviously, Kerry’s visit covers a large ambit of bilateral issues, including trade, climate change, India’s energy security concerns and the already robust people-to-people ties.
Four years ago, Obama had declared that the US-India relationship would be “one of the defining partnerships of the 21st century”. Last week the State Department called it one of “enormous strategic importance.”
Obviously, Indo-US partnership is crucial to counterbalance an increasing Chinese assertion in Asia. It is also important for India to address its concern of a likely safety vacuum in Afghanistan after the withdrawal of the US troops from the country; and to resolve the strict US visa norms for Indians.
No doubt, the Indo-US strategic partnership had nosedived in recent times. India even questioned the US strategic designs over protectionism and intellectual property rights. But Kerry’s out of turn visit to New Delhi is the right gesture to improve the ties –both with Modi as well as India.
Can Kerry deliver? Or can Modi be placated? It’s, indeed, a time for both the countries to reach out to each other by mending fences.
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